GOP wins 52% of votes cast for Assembly candidates, but just 41% of Assembly seats

By Wally Edge | December 3rd, 2009 - 11:16am
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Republicans received 52% of the total votes cast for State Assembly candidates in 2009, but won just 41% of the seats in a chamber where Democrats hold a 47-33 majority.  A total of 2,181,345 were cast for GOP Assembly candidates, compared to 2,001,772 (48%) for Democratic candidates.  Legislative candidates from both parties ran about a million votes ahead of their gubernatorial candidates.

This will help validate Republican claims that the 2001 redistricting plan benefitted Democrats; it also illustrates how much growth there has been in Republican areas of the state.

Among Assembly candidates, the top vote getter in the state was Brian Rumpf (R-Little Egg Harbor) who received 54,311 votes in his Ocean County-based ninth district. Second was his running mate, DiAnne Gove (R-Long Beach), who won 52,667 votes.  As a matter of comparison, that is about two and a half times the number of votes cast for Democrats Grace Spencer (D-Newark) and Albert Coutinho (D-Newark) in District 29, the most Democratic in the state.

Indeed, the top fifteen Assembly vote getters statewide are all Republicans:

  1. Brian Rumpf (R-Little Egg Harbor), 54,311
  2. DiAnne Gove (R-Long Beach), 52,667
  3. Alison McHose (R-Franklin), 50,973
  4. John DiMaio (R-Hackettstown), 49,137
  5. Eric Peterson (R-Annandale), 48,067
  6. Gary Chiusano (R-Augusta), 47,741
  7. David Wolfe (R-Brick), 47,336
  8. Joseph Malone (R-Bordentown), 47,325
  9. James Holzapfel (R-Toms River), 45,916
  10. Ronald Dancer (R-Plumsted), 45,901
  11. Nancy Munoz (R-Summit), 45,515
  12. Jon Bramnick (R-Westfield), 45,439
  13. Peter Biondi (R-Hillsborough), 45,199
  14. Denise Coyle (R-Bernards), 44,612
  15. Charlotte Vandervalk (R-Montvale), 44,612

Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein (D-Plainsboro) was the top vote getter among Democratic Assembly candidates, with 37,958 votes in a politically competitive district.  Assemblywoman Annette Quijano (D-Elizabeth), who was running unopposed, received the least number of votes of any winning Assembly candidate statewide: 20,054.

Ballots cast in Bergen County-based districts offer an interesting comparison: in District 37, where State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck) was at the top of the ticket as the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor, incumbents Gordon Johnson (D-Englewood) and Valerie Huttle (D-Englewood) received 32,845 and 32,440 votes, respectively.  And in District 38, incumbents Connie Wagner (D-Paramus) and Joan Voss (D-Fort Lee) won 28,618 and 28,078 votes, respectively.  But in District 39, Charlotte Vandervalk, an incumbent, and Robert Schroeder (R-Washington Township), seeking an open seat, took 44,612 and 42,477 votes, respectively.  And in District 40, incumbents David Russo (R-Ridgewood) and Scott Rumana (R-Wayne) took in 42,359 and 42,143 votes, respectively.

The tale of the cycle and the map

I think it would be a reach to draw any lessons from margins in safe districts, where margins don't matter in the slightest. Several of the high-profile Democratic winners (Albano, Milam, Greenstein, D'Angelo) this cycle were in more competitive districts, where they had less of an opportunity to run up the numbers... so what? If anything, that's an attribute of the map.

Considering the maps are drawn

on population and not voter registration or likely voters, what is the point?

Redistricting

-This will help validate Republican claims that the 2001 redistricting plan benefitted Democrats

Weren't the Republicans in charge at the last redistricting?
Isn't it funny that Democrats never make those kinds of mistakes?

operates on a poor assumption

This analysis makes an assumption that voter turnout automatically equals public sentiment. It may or may not be right, but the 2009 lazy GOTV effort by the Dems and the specific anti-Corzinism kept people home.

It doesn't matter...

which party managed the redistricting. What matters is that it must be done in as even-handed and representative manner as possible. If this latest set of statistics are as compelling as they seem, why doesn't the GOP file suit?

Because

Jerseyred-because there really isnt a case here. Im not trying to be antagonistic, I just think that this is one of Wally's shoddyist pieces of analysis. Not one of his better ones, and he's had some pearls

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