Corzine internal memo predicts wins for Dem and GOP incumbents in Bergen Assembly races

The Corzine campaign expects "that the margin will be tight" in the race for Bergen County Freeholder, and predicts that incumbent legislators from both parties will win re-election, according to a briefing memo prepared by the governor's re-election campaign.

The Corzine campaign views District 36 as "reliably Democratic" and notes that the Republicans have targeted Assemblymen Gary Schaer (D-Passaic) and Frederick Scalera (D-Nutley) because "they think it will be more competitive without the popular Senator (Paul) Sarlo at the top of the ticket. 

"We do not expect the seats to change hands," the memo said.

The Democrats acknowledged the local 37th district split between State Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck), their candidate for Lt. Governor, and the Bergen County Democratic Organization, but said that Weinberg and Michael Kasparian, who became the County Chairman following Joseph Ferriero's indictment, "have been able to establish more harmony."

In District 38, "there was concern that the ticket would be held down by residual issues with former Senator Joe Coniglio's conviction on corruption charges," the memo said.  But "recent polling has been extremely positive, and we expect that both Assemblywomen will retain their seats."

In a blunt analysis, the Corzine campaign conceded that they will not win Republican Assembly seats in the 39th and 40th districts.  "Unfortunately, we expect the Republicans to win reelection this November," the memo said about District 39, and in District 40 said "we do not think they will be able to unseat the Republicans this fall."

One small mistake in the Corzine campaign's analysis of the 39th district: they don't seem to know that Assemblyman John Rooney (R-Northvale) is retiring.

The internal memo was prepared as a political briefing for U.S. Rep. Patrick Kennedy (D-Rhode Island), who will campaign for Gov. Jon Corzine in Paramus on Friday night.