A poll of New Jersey voters taken three weeks before the 1968 presidential election had independent George Wallace with 14% of the vote, with Richard Nixon leading Hubert Humphrey by a 43%-38% margin. Both parties agreed that Wallace was taking more votes from the Democrats than the Republicans.
A Gallup poll conducted outside two New Jersey auto plants had Wallace getting 73% of the vote among 500 members of the United Auto Workers Union. "Listen, the men in the plants want to zap the Negros by voting for Wallace. It's that simple. And I don't see how anyone can stop them," a UAW official told the New York Times in a quote that 41 years later appears rather incredible.
On Election Day, Nixon carried New Jersey by 61,261 votes, 46%-44%. Wallace took 9%, less than where he was polling, receiving 262,187 votes.
In 1980, an October Eagleton-Rutgers poll had Ronald Reagan and Jimmy Carter tied at 36%, with independent John Anderson at 10%. On Election Day, Reagan won 52%-39%, with 8% for Anderson. But a 1992 Eagleton-Rutgers poll, also taken in October, had independent Ross Perot at 9%; he wound up getting 16% on Election Day. Bill Clinton carried New Jersey 43%-41% over George H.W. Bush.
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Gut Check behind the curtain
When the Daggett voters pull the curtain at the polls, they will have to face reality and they will go with Christie. I am predicting only 8% for Daggett.
He is getting more Democrat Support for the environmental B S but only because they are fed up with Corzine. Daggett defectors will go 60:40 for Christie.
42.5% Christie
39.5% Corzine
8.0% Daggett
Make sure Daggett cannot get his hands on the gun on election night. You might want to take his tie, shoelaces and any sharp objects away from him.
Sunshine
42.5 + 39.5 + 8 = 90%
Who's getting the other 10%? Add 10 to Daggett and you are close.