Adler continues to be favorite for a second term
By Wally EdgeNew Jersey's off-year elections and the competitive gubernatorial contest have stalled the start of the 2010 cycle. That's great news for U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill), who still has no Republican opponent in a district that sent a Republican to Congress for 124 consecutive years until Adler won it with 52% in 2008. Days after Adler won the seat last year, former major league baseball star Al Leiter said he would not run. And last May, a millionaire self-funder the GOP was recruiting, Moorestown investor John Culbertson, said he would not run.
Adler's fundraising prowess is likely to scare away top tier challengers, like State Sen. Diane Allen (R-Edgewater Park), who some insiders would have won the seat last year if a local GOP feud hadn't kept her out of the race. Adler raised $404,406 over the last three months and has amassed a $1,193,061 war chest; he raised more money than any other freshman Congressman. Unless there is a Republican Governor who can help level the financial playing field, it's possible that this seat won't be seriously contested.
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Reality Check
The 3rd CD is still a Republican-voting district. The Cook Partisan Voting Index for the 3rd is "R+1" (unlike the entire state of NJ, which is "D+7").
With a voting pattern like this, Adler is going to need more than just big cash to win re-election in 2010.
The Democratic Party GOTV operation will have to convince Democrats, and left-leaning Undeclareds (in places like Cherry Hill and Willingboro Townships) to come out and vote for Adler in huge percentages - percentages that very rarely show up in off-year elections (moreover, off-year elections with no U.S. Senate campaign in NJ).
Adler is vulnerable in 2010.