How independent voters see it
By Wally EdgeA new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll has Gov. Jon Corzine with upside-down job approvals among independents, 33%-60%, at 38%-50% among voters who come from a public pension household. Three out of ten independent voters view neither Corzine nor Republican Christopher Christie as trustworthy, and are essentially tied on having the background and experience to be a good governor. Christie leads 38%-31% among independents on his ability to understand the concerns of the average New Jerseyan.
Among independents, Corzine has upside-down favorables of 44%-59%, a substantial improvement over the 23%-64% last month. Christie is at 40%-40%, and was at 34%-38% in September. Daggett is at 23%-5% among independents, up from 10%-3%.
In a three-way ballot test, Christie is getting 45% of the independent vote, with 24% for Corzine and 23% for Daggett.
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Chrsite leads among independents by 20% - but tied with the Guv?
According to the crosstabs, Corzine gets 75% of Dems and Christie gets 80% of Reps. But Christie has a 20 point lead among Independents, with and without Daggett on the ballot test question. Yet Christie and Corzine are tied in the overall ballot test. Sounds to me like this sample is pretty heavily weighted toward Democrats.
More Dems in NJ
I haven't reviewed the poll, but since there are many more registered Dems than Reps in NJ (600,000?) the poll should be sampling more Dems than Reps. The issue is whether they have sampled proportionately more Dems than the registration edge would call for them to sample.
I Agree, But..
Agreed, but there are more unaffiliated registrants than Reps or Dems... Its still hard to see how a 20 pt lead among Independents leads to a tie result.
easy
d and r bases vote in a higher proportion than independents, who tend to be more inclined to think their vote wont matter anyway and whose daily routines often lead them to forget or to find themselves too busy to vote. thus d (and r) results should have been given more weight than is. the art of polling is predicting which voters will turn out and in what respective proportions.