Who wins a fight between Josh Margolin, Charlie Stile & Claire Heininger vs. Michael Aron, Cynthia Burton, Bob Ingle?

On Tuesday, the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC) will vote to decide on sponsorships for the two Republican gubernatorial debates that state law requires for candidates who qualify for public matching funds.  The four ELEC Commissioners must pick two of the three applications, which have not yet been released to the public:

• New Jersey Network (NJN), along with the Philadelphia Inquirer, and Gannett New Jersey, which operates the Asbury Park Press, the Courier News, the Courier-Post, the Home News Tribune, the Daily Record, and the Daily Journal. 

Most Likely Panelists: Michael Aron, Cynthia Burton and Bob Ingle

Time Slot Offered: Weekday evening, 8PM

Pros: NJN has sponsored debates in every primary for the last twenty years and like ELEC, it's part of the state government.

Cons: NJN probably has less viewers than Channel 9 or the ABC-TV affiliates in New York and Philadelphia.

What can they do to improve their chances: Pre-empt programming like ‘Grannies on Safari' and air the debate 5 times a day for a week.

• The Fox-owned Channel 9 (my9), along with The Record, and The Star-Ledger, which shares ownership with the Jersey Journal, the Trenton Times, the Salem Today's Sunbeam, the Gloucester County Times, the Express-Times, and the News of Cumberland County. William Paterson University is also part of the my9/Record/Ledger deal.

Most Likely Panelists: Harry Martin, Josh Margolin, Charles Stile, Claire Heininger

Time Slot Offered: Sunday, 12 Noon

Pros: More than 60% of Republican primary voters statewide live in the Star-Ledger/Newhouse and The Record circulation areas.  Fox-owned Channel 9 has the potential to attract North Jersey viewers.

Cons: Proposal does not include TV in South Jersey, although some cable systems carry My9.

What can they do to improve their chances: Up the offer to prime time on a week night. 

• WABC-TV (Channel 7 in New York) and WPVI-TV (Channel 6 in Philadelphia), along with the League of Women Voters of New Jersey Education Fund (LWVNJ).

Most Likely Panelists: Diana Williams, Anthony Johnson, Nora Muchanic

Time Slot Offered: N/A

Pros: ABC network affiliates easily have the biggest audience.

Cons: Proposal does not include TV in South Jersey, although some cable systems carry My9; no print media partners; strong objection to League of Women Voters by one of the candidates, Steve Lonegan.

What can they do to improve their chances: Pre-empt Wheel of Fortune and air the debate on a weeknight at 7:30 PM.

The big question for the ELEC Commissioners is the importance they place on the viewership audience.  More New Jersey voters would potentially watch the debate if it were on an ABC network affiliate, followed by Channel 9.  NJN is likely to have the smallest potential audience, although their viewers are more committed to New Jersey issues. 

The other factor for ELEC will be the time slot: what if the ABC affiliates offer 10 AM on a Saturday?  Is a Sunday morning network debate worth more than a week night "prime time" slot on NJN?

Finally, the ELEC Commissioners must decide if they care about the objections of one of the two Republican gubernatorial candidates in the debate.  Steven Lonegan has objected to the League of Women Voters sponsorship because he views their positions on some policy issues as too liberal.  If ELEC denies the LWVNJ a debate, it could be seen as capitulating to one candidate.  And if ELEC goes with the LWVNJ, it could be interpreted as a nod to Christie.

Remember, of the four ELEC Commissioners, one was a State Senator and cabinet member, one was the Assembly Majority Leader, one was an Assistant Counsel to the Governor, and one was a Superior Court Judge.  All four Commissioners understand politics well.

The GOP gubernatorial candidates are not limited to just the two required debates.  In fact, there will be at least three: NJ101.5, the state's dominant radio station, plans to hold their own debate and told PolitickerNJ.com that the candidates have accepted their invitation.

C-SPAN will probably pick up one of the debates regardless of the sponsorship

The one debate sponsor that is not picked has the option of holding a debate with the official ELEC seal of approval.  Some insiders think that if NJN is not picked, they would certainly hold a debate anyway.