Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie might have a sizeable lead over Gov. Jon Corzine in three recent independent polls, but that doesn't mean the Washington insider community believes he will win.  Pundits outside of New Jersey are accustomed to be teased about New Jersey, where early polling is often more favorable toward Republicans than Election Day.  On October 27, 2004, there was a poll showing George W. Bush and John Kerry in a dead heat in New Jersey, and there was one on September 28, 2005 showing Douglas Forrester within four points of Corzine. And on September 20, 2006, Thomas Kean, Jr. led Robert Menendez 48%-45%.

"Considering that Corzine hasn't even started his re-election campaign and will spend millions of dollars of his own money when he finally does, and that Republicans haven't won statewide in New Jersey in a dozen years, Republicans may want to keep that champagne on ice before they start putting this contest into the win column," Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, told CNN yesterday.

New Jersey might be the bluest state in the nation.  The last time a Republican statewide candidate won New Jersey was in 1997.  Since then, 49 other states have elected a Republican to a statewide office. But also consider this: the last time New Jersey re-elected a Democratic governor was in 32 years ago.  Since 1977, 45 other states have re-elected a Democratic Governor.  Only New Jersey, South Dakota and Texas have not re-elected a Democratic governor since Brendan Byrne won his second term.  (South Dakota has not elected a Democratic governor since 1974 -- the longest continuous streak in the nation.)

(Editor's note: Virginia does not allow governors to seek successive terms, and Mississippi only since 1991, when the Democratic incumbent lost re-election.)

Last year, Frank Lautenberg broke a fourteen-year drought for incumbent Democrats winning re-election to statewide office in New Jersey.  The last incumbent to have won re-election before Lautenberg was Lautenberg, in 1994.  Before that, it was Bill Bradley in 1990, with 50.4% of the vote.