Early primary polls aren't always right
By Wally Edge
There is a temptation by the media, including this site, to designate former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie as the front runner for the Republican gubernatorial nomination. A Quinnipiac poll released yesterday with a 27-point lead, 44%-17%, over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan.
A February 2001 Quinnipiac poll had Acting Gov. Donald DiFrancesco leading Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler 45%-16% among Republican primary voters. A Quinnipiac poll taken in May showed former U.S. Rep. Bob Franks with a 46%-24% lead over Schundler. Schundler won the primary by fourteen points, 57%-43%.
In 2000, former Gov. Jim Florio had a 57%-22% lead over first-time candidate Jon Corzine in a February Quinnipiac poll. Corzine won the primary 58%-42%.
Conservative Jeff Bell, a former speechwriter for Ronald Reagan, beat four-term U.S. Senator Clifford Case in the 1978 GOP Primary by a 51%-49% margin. But just a month earlier, an Eagleton-Rutgers poll had Case leading Bell 35%-7%.
In May 1977, Gov. Brendan Byrne had a narrow 17%-14% lead over U.S. Rep. Robert Roe, ahead of U.S. Rep. Jim Florio (9%) and seven others in a Rutgers-Eagleton poll. 45% of the Democratic primary voters were undecided.
Contributors
Wally Edge
Attorney General Anne Milgram had already decided she would leave her post when Gov. Jon Corzine lost his bid for re-election. She has been ... >
Bob Torricelli
The contest for Governor of New Jersey might be the most visible but in the long term it might not be the most important. Long after our youngest ... >
Michael Patrick Carroll
Political discourse in America contains much in the way of intellect or intellectual honesty. One considers the Federalist Papers with wistful awe: ... >
Jeff Michaels
Governor-elect Christopher J. Christie. How sweet it is for the thousands of volunteers who worked since February to support this great man for NJ ... >
Richard LaRossa
With a convincing win in defeating an encumbent Governor, why were there no coattails? >
Alan Steinberg
Within 24 hours after the election of Chris Christie as Governor, the battle was joined between the Governor-elect and the New Jersey Education ... >
Dr. Joseph Marbach
I am often asked by my students, friends and even reporters why campaigns in New Jersey are so nasty and why candidates rely so heavily on negative ... >
Carla Katz
It was a dark and stormy November night. An icy wind whistled through leafless moonlit trees. A loud thud is followed by a piercing scream. A ... >
Joey Novick
Patrick Murray is the founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. According to their website, “The Monmouth University ... >
Murray Sabrin
According to the latest SurveyUSA and Rutgers Eagleton polls, independent gubernatorial candidate Chris Daggett has the support of 19% and 20% of ... >
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Quote of the Day
"Please. I wouldn't have enough paper. So let’s not even bother writing one. This is now about governing. I won. The one thing I could never understand about people in politics was winners who are sore winners." -- Gov.-elect Christopher Christie, on putting together an enemis list.
“He’s a nice man with good intentions, but in the end he’ll be remembered for timidity. Being a business titan and issuing orders from the corner office is a lot different than having to cajole and persuade people in politics and having the toughness and fortitude to see your vision become reality.”-- Ross K. Baker, a political scientist at Rutgers University, on Gov. Jon Corzine.
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