To beat Corzine, GOP will need to win towns like Lyndhurst, Rutherford, North Arlington and Nutley

New Jersey’s 36th legislative district, which includes politically competitive towns in South Bergen, the heavily Democratic city of Passaic, and Nutley, a swing town in Essex County, is supposed to be a battleground in the 2009 general election.  Assemblymen Gary Schaer (D-Passaic) and Frederick Scalera (D-Nutley) won by the lowest margin of any incumbent Democrats in 2007; Republican Don Diorio, a political newcomer who raised about $1,700, came within 2,424 votes of ousting Schaer.  Some Republicans think they can beat Schaer and Scalera this year, especially since State Sen. Paul Sarlo (D-Wood-Ridge) is not on the ballot.

But despite some GOP gains at the local level, mostly in response to the EnCap development, the heavily blue collar district still leans Democratic.  In the 36th, Barack Obama beat John McCain 56%-44%, a margin of more than 10,000 votes.  Obama did slightly better than John Kerry’s 5,500 vote (54%-46%) win over George W. Bush in 2004. 

In the 2005 race for Governor, Democrat Jon Corzine won 61% of the vote in District 36, beating Republican Douglas Forrester by more than 10,500 votes.  For Republicans Christopher Christie or Steve Lonegan to win statewide, they’ll need to win the kind of towns that Forrester lost, like Nutley, Rutherford, Lyndhurst and North Arlington.  That could be an argument for either of them to pick five-term Bergen County Clerk Kathleen Donovan for Lt. Governor.  Donovan carried six of the nine South Bergen towns in her 2008 re-election bid.

Schaer is arguably a stronger incumbent than he was two years ago.  He got good reviews for his six months stint as Mayor of Passaic in 2008 (as Council President, he became Mayor after Sammy Rivera’s criminal conviction).   And following Neil Cohen’s resignation (state officials found child pornography on his office computer), Schaer became Chairman of the powerful Assembly Banking and Insurance Committee.

Republicans have not yet settled on Assembly candidates.  Two top Republicans, Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola and Nutley Commissioner Joseph Scarpelli, a former Essex County Freeholder, have already said they won’t run.  Rutherford Mayor John Hipp has not closed the door to running, although he is not aggressively pursuing the nomination.  Their continues to be speculation that former Assembly Majority Leader Paul DiGaetano, who gave up his seat to run for Governor four years ago, could seek a political comeback.