Fifteen races to watch

Keep an eye on these fifteen races in New Jersey today:

1. U.S. House of Representatives, 3rd district: Democrat John Adler and Republican Christopher Myers face off for the seat of U.S. Rep. Jim Saxton (R-Mt. Holly), who is retiring after 24 years in Congress.  Adler, a six-term State Senator and Judiciary Committee Chairman, has a narrow lead in independent and internal polls over Myers, the Mayor of Medford and an executive at Lockheed-Martin, a major South Jersey empoyer.  Myers needs a huge plurality out of Ocean County too offset Adler's expected wins in Burlington County and in his hometown of Cherry Hill.  The seat has been held by Republicans since they ousted Thomas Ferrell in 1884.

2. U.S. House of Representatives, 7th District: State Sen. Leonard Lance (R-Flemington) and Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) face off for the seat of Michael Ferguson, a four-term Republican who decided not to seek re-election at age 38.  Stender, who came within 1% of ousting Ferguson in 2006, had been viewed as the likely winner, but a weak but well-financed campaign has allowed Lance, the former Senate Minority Leader, to eke out a narrow lead, according to internal polls from both sides.  Stender brought former President Bill Clinton into the district last Saturday for a rally, hoping to boost her chances.  Democrats have not won this seat since 1954.

3. President of the United States: Democrat Barack Obama is expected to easily win New Jersey's fifteen electoral votes, and the only question now is the size of his margin and his coattails.  If Obama beats Republican John McCain by more than twenty points, it may be tough for Republicans to win some hotly contested congressional, county and municipal races.

4. Bergen County: The indictment of Democratic County Chairman Joseph Ferriero and unpopular Meadowlands development issues in politically competitive South Bergen could help the Republicans break the 7-0 Democratic majority on the Board of Freeholders.  Three Democratic incumbents are seeking re-election.  And the bad national political environment for the Republicans could be a problem for popular GOP County Clerk Kathleen Donovan, who is seeking her fifth term.  If Republicans can't win a few Freeholder seats this year, and hold the County Clerk post, it will be hard to argue that they'll win anytime soon.

5. Mayor of Bayonne: Joseph Doria's resignation to become state Community Affairs Commissioner has triggered a special election for Mayor between Police Director Mark Smith and former Municipal Court Judge Patrick Conaghan -- and three other candidates: former Mayor Richard Rutkowski, City Clerk Robert Sloan, and Raymond Rokicki, a city Zoning Commissioner. Smith has the backing of the Hudson County Democratic Organization, and Conaghan, who forced Doria into a runoff in 2006, is backed by State Sen. Sandra Cunningham and Assemblyman Anthony Chiappone.

6. Monmouth County:  Democrats need to win one of two Republican Freeholder seats up today to take control of the Board of Freeholders for the first time since 1986.  Republicans have a 3-2 majority after losing a seat in 2006 and another in 2007.  And for the first time in state history, there are now more registered Democrats in Monmouth than Republicans.  

7. Mayor of Passaic: Six candidates are running in a special election for Mayor, a contest made necessary following the criminal conviction of two-term incumbent Sammy Rivera: Alex Blanco, Vinny Capuana, Carl Ellen, Joe Garcia and Jose Sandoval.  Blanco has the backing of Assemblyman Gary Schaer, the Acting Mayor; former Councilman Marcellus Jackson, who has pled guilty to federal corruption charges and is awaiting his sentencing, is playing a big role in Capuana's campaign; Sandoval was endosed by the Herald News; and Ellen was recently subpoenaed by the U.S. Attorney.

8. U.S. House of Representatives, 5th District:  U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) was never supposed to be in trouble, but both parties agree that the race has suddenly become competitive.  Garrett, a three-term incumbent and the northeast's most conservative Congressman, is still favored to beat Dennis Shulman, a blind Rabbi who has waged an aggressive campaign.  This is exactly the kind of race where coattails from Barack Obama and U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg in Bergen County could potentially help Shulman offset Garrett's margins in strongly-Republican Sussex and Warren counties.  If Shulman wins, it will be the upset of the year.

9. Cumberland County: 2008 could be the last stand for Republicans in one of New Jersey's few remaining politically competitive counties.  Sheriff Michael Barruzza and Surrogate Arthur Marchand, both Republicans, are seeking re-election. Baruzza, a two-term incumbent, faces Democrat Robert Austino, a retired Vineland Police Lieutenant.  (The two served together as police officers).  Marchand, a former Cumberland County Prosecutor, faces Freeholder Douglas Rainear.  In the race for Freeholder, all three incumbents (two Democrats and a Republican) are retiring; Democrats are trying to take a 7-0 majority, while Republicans are seeking to at least protect their last Freeholder seat.

10. Atlantic County: Michael McGettigan, who lost his bid for County Executive last year by a wide margin, is now seeking re-election to a sixth term as the Atlantic County Sheriff. He faces Republican Frank Frank Balles, a Pleasantville police detective. Atlantic County Republicans, who have long held a majority on the board, last year widened their narrow 5-4 majority to 7-2 by defeating first-term incumbent Joe Kelly and accepting the defection of Frank Giordano to their side in a year known more for the opposite type of defection. his year, the best the Democrats can do is claw their way back to a 5-4 majority. The best the Republicans can do is knock Alissa Cooper off the board while electing a Republican to replace retiring GOP At-Large Freeholder Joseph Silipena and keeping Freeholder Frank Sutton in office in the traditionally Republican 3rd District. Seeking first terms on the board are Democrats Jim Schroeder (At-large), a former teacher turned NJEA lobbyist, and Gene Maier in 3rd District. Republicans have fielded Fulsom Mayor Tom Ballistreri and financial analyst Manny Aponte for the two At-Large seats.

11. Newark City Council, Central Ward: Dana Rone, elected in 2006, was tossed from office (and barred from seeking public office for life) by a Superior Court Judge after being found guilty of using her post to influence a police officer during a routine traffic stop of her nephew.  Mayor Cory Booker, once a Rone ally, is backing labor leader Eddie Osborne for the seat.  Booker's nemesis, former Mayor Sharpe James, who will soon head to federal prison following his conviction on corruption charges, is backing former Councilman Charles Bell,  who lost his seat to Rone two years ago.  City Council President Mildred Crump has a horse: Nakea White.  And Rone's mother, Mary, is running.

12. Burlington County: The Republican organization, long in control of county government, is defending two Freeholder seats (including Aubrey Fenton, the only African American to hold an elected office above the municipal level in New Jersey) and their County Clerk. Democrats have been pushing hard to make gains in this Camden County suburb, but the GOP surprised observers by going on Philadelphia TV.  

13. Salem County: Democrats have a 6-1 majority on the Board of Freeholders in Salem, where countywide elections have been fairly close in recent years.  Three Democratic seats are up, and this New Jersey's least populated county is the only place where Republicans can possibly pickup control of a Freeholder Board.  

14. Somerset County: Republicans have held a majority of seats on the Somerset County Board of Freeholders since forever, and Democrats haven't won a seat since Michael Ceponis in 1979.  But GOP margins have become a bit closer in recent years, and Barack Obama does well among the so-called Tom Kean/Christie Whitman Republicans in places like Somerset County.  A Democratic win would indeed be an upset, but not exactly a shock.

15. United States Senator: With a huge lead in his bid for re-election, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning, Democrat Frank Lautenberg is likely to break two new records -- he'll become the first five-term United States Senator in New Jersey history, and he'll break his own record as the oldest person to ever win a statewide election in this state.  But there is one more record that Lautenberg could break -- the biggest winning percentage in a U.S. Senate race. That record belongs to Bill Bradley, who won 64.2% against Mary Mochary in 1984.  Lautenberg, who has never won more than 55%,  could become the fifth Senator in state history to win more than 60% of the vote.