As goes Middletown, so goes the 13th
By Wally EdgeKeep an eye on the hotly contested race for Middletown Township Commission, since it is a precursor to the campaign for State Assembly in the 13th district next year. If Democrats win the local race, they will be more inclined to fund challengers to Republican incumbents Samuel Thompson and Amy Handlin in 2009. And if the GOP takes the Middletown race, state Democrats will be hesitant to fund a campaign in a district they haven't won since 1983.
Without popular State Senator Joseph Kyrillos on the ticket (unless he emerges as the GOP candidate for Lieutenant Governor), Thompson and Handlin are considered to be slightly vulnerable.
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“For a guy who’s got nothing but adoring press for seven years, and is unknown to 70 percent of the public, it’s not easy to win if you’re a single-issue candidate. Our feeling is, bring him on.” -- Democratic State Chairman Joseph Cryan, on Republican Chris Christie, who is resigning as U.S. Attorney to run for Governor.
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Wrong year...
Look at past presidential year results. No way Dems make any headway with that kinda turnout.
Handlin's Safe
Even if Democrats fund challengers, Amy Handlin is safe. If it got very competitive, she would still get enough crossover votes and would even most likely carry Sam Thompson to victory, if he runs again.
Only hope Dems have is really against old man Thompson, but if Corzine runs for re-election forget it, COAH is extremely disliked in Middletown and he will kill the Assembly ticket throughout the district.
No Democrat is safe if Corzine runs for re-election
A Corzine re-election campaign could doom Democrats throughout the state in races for Assembly, freeholder and many down ballot contests.
Let's face it, the guy has been an utter disaster. He lacks ethical standards worthy of an elected officials and he has failed to accomplish anythign good.
Former Wall Street CEOs in general are less popular now than they once were, because taxpayers are spending $700 billion to bail out that handful of people possessing a love of money found only among the rarest individuals.
Corzine never created value in his time at the top of Goldman Sachs, but he sure sucked money out of the company. Now that the stock market lost one-third of its value, we can see the imaginary bubble built on "other people's money" from which Corzine and his ilk took their millions.
Closing hospitals, cheating poor school children, embracing political crooks while ignoring ethics reform -- Corzine's record is terrible. He does not share the core values of real Democrats and he certainly has no grasp of what 'real people' are going through in this economy.
If no Democrat emerges to challenge Corzine in the primary, NJ could switch back to Republican control as it did in 1990 & 1991. A Democrat who does challenge Corzine in the 2009 primary will be hailed as a savior -- and since only 37% of Democrats say the incumbent deserves another term according a recent Monmouth University poll, a serious insurgent can be fairly certain of victory.
Thompson and Handlin should be challenged
Republican incumbents Samuel Thompson and Amy Handlin should be challenged in 2009, but if the locals wait for state Democrats to involve themself, the race has already been lost.
Serious challengers need to demonstrate they intend to win before Trenton politicians will show interest.
With Corzine & the Cryan Crime Family running candidate support operations in the Capitol, corruption and incompetence stand in the way of real assistance anyway. Tying challengers to those folols would doom the effort throughout the Bayshore.
Democrats in Middletown, Old Bridge, Hazlet, Keyport, Keansburg & Union Beach should be getting together with potential candidates now to devise a plan for victory.
If nobody has the will to dedicate time and effort to this thing, who is going to provide the money? Winners do not wait for somebody else to rescue them. Winners work for it because they want it.
If dems take Middletown they can take the 13th
In a 13th District Assembly race, if the Dems break even or come close in Middletown they can win the district. The other Bayshore towns and Old Bridge usually produce pluralities for the dems. Only to have the Rep.'s make up their vote gap in Middletown.
If the local dems are successful in Middletown, I would strongly recomend that the state party get involved and help the Democratic 13D Asm. candidates.