Stender pollster says 7th district race is a statistical dead heat for Congress, President
By Wally EdgeLinda Stender leads Leonard Lance by three percentage points, 36%-33%, in the race for Congress from New Jersey’s seventh district, according to an Anzalone/Liszt Research poll conducted for the Stender campaign.
Bridgewater Councilman Michael Hsing, a Republican running as an Independent, is polling 9%. Tom Abrams, a retired marketing executive running as an anti-war candidate, is receiving 2% of the vote.
The poll shows presidential candidates John McCain and Barack Obama in a statistical dead heat in the district: McCain 45%, Obama 43%. President Bush has an upside-down favorable rating of 30%-64%.
Stender, a Democratic Assemblywoman from Union County, faces Lance, a GOP State Senator from Hunterdon County, for the seat of retiring U.S. Rep. Mike Ferguson, a Republican who is not seeking re-election.
“The political environment is competitive from a partisan standpoint, and Stender appears to have more easy expansion potential than Lance,” the pollsters told the Stender campaign in a memo obtained by PolitickerNJ.com. “This is going to be a close race, and Stender should win if she has the resources for paid communication in this difficult media market.
Anzalone/Liszt says that Hsing and Abrams are hurting Lance more than Stender. “Without them in the race, Stender leads 43% to 42% – slightly smaller than her 3-point lead with the third-party candidates included. Michael Hsing has approximately as much cash on hand as Leonard Lance, and will continue to be a factor,” the memo said.
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Another partisan poll
Just another partisan poll. I wouldn't read anything into it if it came from Lance's pollsters and showed him up the same amount. It is worthless. However, I do question his campaign staff's decision to release a poll showing her at only 36% and within the margin of error despite the fact that she has been running for 4 years. She is basically telling people she is tied with Lance in this race and despite the million she has spent in 4 years has topped out at 36%. Ouch!
excuse me
I meant to say her campaign staff. I apologize.
Lance has been in trouble for a while
The only positive for Lance's flailing, in debt campaign from these poll results is that he is only behind by 3%. But if one keeps in mind that the NRCC hasn't bought any ad time for NJ-07 (or for that guy who's running against Adler in NJ-03), that Stender has the bulk of her campaign money yet to be spent (over $1 million), and that National Republicans have all but given up on Lance and his chances, then this poll just confirms what we already know: Linda Stender, who's running a positive campaign based on substantive issues, is going to be the next congresswoman in NJ-07.
By way of comparison, at this point in 2004, Ferguson had a stronger lead over Stender than Stender over Lance as of now, and he heavily outspent her then; further, the new Democratic registration numbers in this district and the state overall provide a real boost to Stender in this election vis-a-vis 2004.
Here we go again
Here we go again. Another NRCC insider telling us how the NRCC plans to spend money. Stender is at 36% after spending 4 years running for office? Not very impressive. Keep "Dennisoning" her up. Her campaign strategy is not working.
Find it interesting that
7% is going for 3rd parties.
Actually
This is better for Lance than conventional wisdom would have people believe. This definitely doesn't cut off Lance's money. If anything it tells the nationals to jump in. Releasing this data was a dumb move.
If Stender can't win with the cash she has now she won't win with ten times as much. What she's done is shown the race is not in the bag. This is the kind of poll that Lance would release, not Stender.
Don't wait for the calvary
Adler put out a press release and there have been articles written about the lack of national support for Lance and Myers. The NRCC responded with... nothing. No plans at all for these races. It has been, it is, and it will remain to be the logical assumption that the national GOP has abandoned this race. If they decided to now, it would be a huge strategic blunder as the signal has been for weeks that they don't plan on spending money here in NJ. I don't blame you for grasping. It's difficult to go on without hope, as false as it may be.
Apparently you and Adler
Apparently you and Adler didn't read the entire article. I thought Adler's press release smelled of desperation. The NRCC clearly stated do not read anything into the comments by the other side that they won't get involved. How many times do I need to tell you that they will get involved?
Are you kidding?
MartinOne, you say "Linda Stender, who's running a positive campaign based on substantive issues"... last time I checked, her campaign commercials consisted entirely of lumping Lance in with the Bush Republicans (which, if you actually knew the man or the race... or anything, for that matter) you would know that is not the case. Lance is a socially moderate fiscal conservative who is putting the REAL issues (like the economy) first. Why hasn't Stender spoken much about the economy? Oh that's right, because she voted to raise taxes umpteen times as a freeholder and Assemblywoman. Next time try paying attention before you open your mouth and spew Kos-like rhetoric of which you have no factual basis.
MartinOne is from Alaska
MartinOne-- You must be a newcomer to the world of Trenton or an out-of-state Obama staffer. If you knew anything about NJ, you would know 2 things: 1) Sen. Lance is the most decent, smartest, hard-working politician in Trenton who is universally respected by members of both parties (usually "off the record" when Dems are speaking) and 2) Stender is a machine politician who only survives because of Lesniak/DeFilippo. What has she ever, ever, ever done other than vote the way she was told by the bosses in Linden, Hillside, and Elizabeth? Answer -- nothing. Go Leonard, go!
Whoever advised releasing
Whoever advised releasing that internal poll ought to be tarred and feathered. I agree with some of the points stated by Mountaintop. At this point many of the prominent pundits out there were considering this either toss-up with a slight Dem-lean to outright leans Dem, not the pure toss-up that this release is suggesting. Plus she right now benefits from more district-wide name recognition, the reputation of almost toppling an incumbent and statewide favorable climate towards Dems in general. 3 percentage points after all of the official votes are certified on election day is a victory, 3 percentage points in an early September campaign poll is a dead heat.
However, in spite of this, it seems at this point the that NRCC is treating NJ Republicans the same way as the NSCC during this election cycle and will probably sit this one out.