How the Democrats beat Jen Beck
By Wally EdgeDemocrats are anxious to reclaim the 12th legislative district, where Jennifer Beck ousted Ellen Karcher in the 2007 Senate race, and where a pair of Republicans occupies the two Assembly seats. The plan isn't as much about 2009 (the conventional wisdom is that freshmen incumbents Declan O'Scanlon and Caroline Casagrande will be tough to beat next year) as it is about 2011. Legislative districts will be redrawn after the 2010 census.
One plan being discussed among Democrats is to move Beck's hometown, Red Bank (estimated population 11,850) into Joseph Kyrillos's 13th district. (Red Bank and Middletown share a border). The new 12th, Democrats hope, would add four Middlesex towns currently in Bill Baroni's 14th district: Cranbury (3,899), Jamesburg (6,429), Monroe (34,907), Plainsboro (21,213) and South Brunswick (40,570). In turn, Baroni would add some towns in Monmouth, like Allentown (1,847), Freehold Borough (11,394), Freehold Township (33,953), Millstone (10,064), Roosevelt (913) and Upper Freehold (6,573).
The new 12th would be tough for the Republicans to win; look for the Democrats to run one of their young rising stars, newly-elected Marlboro Mayor Jonathan Hornick, for State Senate, along with veteran Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein.
Editor's note: The Inside Edge is reporting redistricting speculation. No decisions on redrawing 2011 legislative districts have been made.
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If the Republicans can't
If the Republicans can't have an effect on the redistricting process this time around they might as well pack it in. Redistricting is what allowed the Dems to take over in 2001, hopefully the R's have learned from their mistakes.
Russian Redistricing
This process of partisan gerrymandering is horrific. Anyone who supports this type of manipulation might as well just move to China were 'the state' controls every aspect of your life.
Not quite
Redistricting helped, but what allowed the Democrats to take over in 2001 was the Republican record in the last four years they had control. Republicans no longer were the party of low taxes and small government. This same problem caused the Democratic takeover of Congress in 2006 including big gains in states like Pennsylvania and Florida where Republicans drew the lines.
redistricting is not important
Democrats have won (what were once) dependable GOP Senate seats in South Jersey (1, 2, 4) and another that could be Republican (3). The GOP could also win Assembly seats in 6 and 7, and if Bill Baroni can win in the 14th, other Republicans could do it as well. Whatever implosion has happened in Bergen County has nothing to do with redistricting. Republicans will win when the party comes up with a message. The whole Estebrook - Unanue - Zimmer last minute switching showed that the party leadership is not guided by a genuine philosophy.
Did Baroni cut another deal?
After reading this, it sounds like Baroni may have already cut a deal with the Democrats. Maybe it will be his budget vote in exchange for a more Republican district from which to launch his statewide ambitions? After all, didn't Baroni cut a deal with Roberts to get himself named the clean elections district so he could walk into the State Senate in exchange for letting Roberts and Greenstien take the two Assembly seats?
Monmouth Dems won't like that
That changes the 12th from Monmouth district (only 2 Mercer towns now) to a Mercer/Middlesex/Monmouth District. Not sure how Monmouth Democrats would feel about that.
11th and 13th aren't really competitive for the D's, so it takes the Monmouth Dems out of Legislative races almost completely. The 12th is the only place where they compete now.
I think the more likely scenario keeps Beck's Red Bank in the 12th, and just try to make the 12th slightly more friendly for D's (add a few D towns in Middlesex, and remove one or two of the biggest R towns in Monmouth), but keep it a Monmouth based District.
I think O'Scanlon lives in
I think O'Scanlon lives in Little Silver and Baroni and D'Angelo both live in Hamilton. O'Scanlon could run in the 13th if Thompson retires. I forget where Casagrande is from, maybe Freehold which means she could run with Baroni.
They could always move, but those 4 Middlesex towns are solid Greenstein turf.
I hope what Armyofone is saying about Baroni isn't true... because it does make complete sense. Baroni did beat Singh in the Middlesex part of the district but I'm sure he'd love to get into Monmouth and get rid of Beck. The Democrats know who to approach when they need a backroom deal
hmmmm
Weekend Ledger article re: Lt. Governor runs with Beck mentioned prominently and before Baroni...
Days later, word leaks of "Democrat" plans to take a bunch of Republican towns out of Beck's district and put them in Baroni's, and move Beck to a district where she'd have to possibly compete with an incumbent.
Curiouser and curiouser....
I'm just saying...
It's odd that the 14th had Inverso, Baroni and Greenstien in it, then Baroni gets handed $1.4 million in taxpayers money for his campaign against Singh (she was out of the race by September 1) and he can't even manage to keep his own Assembly seat in Republican hands. Even the Republican Mayoral Candidate won in Hamilton. Interesting is all I'm saying.
The Monmouth "Panhandle"
consists of Millstone, Roosevelt, Allentown and Upper Freehold Township. Throw in Robbinsville from Mercer County as well.
These towns should definitely be considered more "swingable" for Dems. They are a primary battleground in the state's land use wars. The Corzine administration has been strongly supportive of local efforts to preserve the rural character of this "horse country."
There's serious, sustained Republican infighting in several of the towns, due to the lack of effective local leadership. It's become almost a "no man's land." The only strong local figure is Robbinsville Mayor Dave Fried, who has been discounted by this site but manages to win his own races and council races by large margins.
With effort and a good property tax/open space message, the area is absolutely winnable for a Democratic legislative, freeholder or statewide candidate. There's genuine opportunity here.
It would also be a huge benefit for these towns to be in the middle of a competitive district, rather than along the fringe of an all-too-safe safe snoozer of a district.
it's not that simple
First: Mountaintop is right that redistricting is not the primary reason for the minority status of the Republicans. Ceding the high ground on fiscal matters has blurred any substantive differences between the two parties. Once (if?) the NJGOP gets some semblance of an agenda, it can move forward.
Second: Redistricting doesn't just involve moving towns in one or two districts. The 12th is one of the few districts with significant population growth. Any altering would more likely involve removing some of the outlying towns (East Windsor, Hightstown) in order for Monmouth to keep it's three legislative districts.
Given the stagnant and/or declining populations of northeastern NJ districts, a district should be eliminated east of I-287 and north of I-78 (barring an overcount including illegal aliens and/or dead voters). Much like a new district 30 was created in 1991, a new district 34 (or 36? pick your number) should be placed somewhere between New Brunswick and Manchester.
Beck.
Jennifer beck will be tough to beat for re-election in this district as currently configured. Only radical redistricting will make the Democrats remotely competitive.
Memo to Beck:
Do not seek statewide office midway through your freshman term.
Christie will not win the general.
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