Senators don't usually lose primaries
By Wally EdgeIn New Jersey, incumbent United States Senators have rarely faced competitive primary challenges, and the only incumbent Senator to lose a primary was Clifford Case, a four-term Republican who lost 50.7%-49.3% to conservative Jeffrey Bell, a former speechwriter for Ronald Reagan’s 1976 presidential campaign. Case had faced primary challenges from the right before: Robert Morris, who had been Chief Counsel for Senate Internal Security Subcommittee headed by Joseph McCarthy, won 33% in 1960; and James Walter Ralph, a Bergen County physician, received 30% in 1972.
In 1970, incumbent Harrison Williams faced a Democratic primary challenge from Frank Guarini, then a State Senator from Hudson County. Williams won 66%-34%; eight years later, Guarini was elected to Congress.
One of the fiercest primaries in state history was in 1924, when Republican National Committeeman Hamilton Kean challenged Walter Edge, a former Governor who was completing his first term in the Senate. Edge won, 57%-43%, and Kean went on to win an open seat four years later.
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Wally Edge
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And
In 2008 Part time Congressman ROb Andrews embarked on an ill-guided and ill-fated run against the popular Frank Lautenberg. Lautenberg easily won the contest. Even though it was Rob's intention to build a state-wide network for a 2009 run for Governor, Rob's defeat and shady return to the House of Representatives (by way of his wife's place-holder candidacy) caused his political career to unravel.
Its Nowhere Near Over
If the primary was held today, I think Andrews would probably lose 50-45-5.
But, I think Frank Lautenberg could stumble in the next few weeks, especially when his residency on Park Avenue is further exposed.
It will be close for sure. Despite having the county lines in Bergen, Essex, and Hudson, those machines aren't going to be working at full capacity.
Andrews's support with Lesniak, Adubato, etc, may be enough to cut into FL's north jersey margin.
....but,
...but let me also agree with SJBlue that Andrews is also setting up a further run.
If FL doesn't finish out his term (a pretty likely scenario), Corzine (if re-elected in '09) would appoint Andrews for sure. Notice that Corzine hasn't bad-mouthed Andrews at all, while the Congressional delegation has.
Of course, its not clear who Chris Christie or Bill Baroni, as Governor, will appoint when FL resigns early.
it depends
The grassroots support is clearly with Andrews at this point, and turnout should favor the superior candidate in that regard. Though it is rare that challengers beat incumbents, the logic usually returns to whether the incumbent is fit for office and still delivering for the state; if that is the case -- and N.J. voters are smart -- then Andrews has a good chance at staking out a victory with a strong showing in South Jersey, a respectable showing in Middlesex, where he has almost every elected official's support, good showings in the Republican counties, where Frank has been AWOL for years, and a blunting of Lautenberg's numbers in Bergen and perhaps Hudson, though Andrews has elected officials' support in the latter, unlike Lautenberg who doesn't have a single assemblyman or senator south of Trenton supporting him.
I want Lautenberg to live to be 100
But aren't we ignoring the fact that though he is a robust 86, he's still 86! Do Dems really want that to be their legacy of transition planning? Supporting Lautenberg, no matter all the good intentions, is kinda nutty. AND I'm the biggest nut because I'll probably vote for the guy. He's been an ok Senator and I don't really know the other guy.
Grassroots support?
What grassroots support does Andrews have? He has been endorsed by a slew of legislators begging for leadership positions in the State House from George Norcross and a couple of crooked mayors like John MacCormac and Dan Reiman from Middlesex county. All the county elected officers and Congressmen are with Lautenberg. No one in this race is going with Rob Andrews because of his positions. They are going with him because of their own personal interest.
martin
Why do you think that SJ is supporting Andrews? Don't you realize that Norcross has been funding all of their campaigns? This is a no-brainer.