This list assumes the GOP gubernatorial candidate will be the same dull white bread "moderate" we have run in previous years. Fortunately, that won't be the case, putting into play seats like 3, 4, 6, 18, 19, 22 and 38.

Republicans are not only going to win the Assembly in 2009, but they will win it by a big margin. That will be Jon Corzine's final legacy to our state and the ultimate repudiation of his ultra-liberal agenda.

Jack Rafferty, Hamilton's resurrected ex-mayor runs. Him running up a big win in Hamilton could finally end it for Greenstein.

I think the GOP will take back the Governor's office. The biggest problem for Corzine is that there is a general sense that he has failed to grow the state and in fact has done more damage than good. It will not be that NJ suddenly is ultra-conservative, but much like Ronald Reagan ousted Jimmy Carter in 1980, incompetence, frustration and lack of vision will end the Corzine administration. And my guess is much like in 1980 with Tip O'Neill and Congress, Assembly and Senate Democrats will be happy to see Johnny Boy go.

The only thing that may save the Democrats is a primary challenge for Corzine from someone more conservative than him.

You can have all the money in the world but if you have no message you cannot win. With the polarity of the Bush administration gone soon (thats ALL that the NJDems have had, havent you noticed?) and the right candidate Jon Corzine will be lucky to come within six points.

yeah, I'd put D'Angelo in 14th as Leans D, not Likely D.

With Baroni and Rafferty working hard, R's could pick up that seat.

2nd District are probably the most likely pick-ups though.

... and just make the graphic the competitive ones because this is too hard to read.

Amodeo and Pollistina are pretty well-liked. I see Whelan losing in '11 more likely than Democrats unseating these guys. Maybe Tyner could do it.

I think Martin Marks may be running in the 7th to get his name up so he can run and win in 22 next year, that district will be very competitive.

Bob Schroeder takes Rooney's seat, securing it for the GOP.

Let's see: Jon Corzine is fading away faster than you could catch him; desperately seeking Hillary is still in the running; Frank is mumbling away; McCain might win NJ; Garrett is heading for reelection; Dr. Sabrin might be nominated by GOP (not the back to the USSR Chairmen) but rank and file Republicans to run against Democratic nominee; Real Democrats are undermining Ferriero in Bergen County; ...

Why do we even think about 2009?

Yeah, the GOP does so much better when it nominates non-moderates like Sandman, Courter, and Schundler.

There's a reason those with careers on the line prefer to run with the likes of Bateman, Kean, Whitman, and Forrester. They won six of the eight races the were in and they didn't destroy down-ticket Republicans in this not-so-Neanderthal state.

Let's see... Bateman 0-1, Kean 2 for 2 (one squeaker, one pass), Whitman 2 squeakers out of 3 (none above 50%), and Forester 2 goose eggs.

That is at best 4 of 8, with only one above 50 percent of the vote.

Coattails??? Except for Kean in '85 (most of the gains were lost in '87), none brought along any number of legislators or other officials into office.

Before you impugn the so-called neanderthals, get your facts straight.

Herein lie the problem. Incumbents are favored to be re-elected. Our government in New Jersey is stealing us blind through bloat and downright corruption. Yet we the sheep go and re-elect these clowns.

Wake up New Jersey and smell the garbage!. Throw them all out.

GET RID OF INCUMBENT POLITICIANS. 

We need to bring those into office that only want to serve. We need to take back government and stop the bleeding. It is time NJ to remove the dead weight, out of control spenders and replace them with small government advocates. DO NOT BUY INTO TO SPEND AND TAX WAY OF THE BIG GOVERNMENT ADVOCATES. Let's make government smaller and get them out of our lives. They have abandoned the Constitution and no longer enforce the laws of the State or the Country. Tar and feathers are in order. TURN THE BUMS OUT.

Which is the kind of race you were talking about. On national issues, even moderate Republicans have a very hard time in New Jersey, though Whitman came close. New Jersey simply is not generally sympathetic to Republican positions on national issues. The only elected GOP senator we've had in about forever is Clifford Case, who was probably the most liberal senator of the time from either party.

But for governor, the voters dislike corruption enough to turn the known problems out sometimes, hoping that the GOP will be better.

Counting Cahill, GOP moderates running for governor since 1969 are 5 out of 7.

The hard right candidaes running for governor are 0 for 3.

The GOP has not nominated a statewide candidate from South Jersey in 32 years, and, since then, the GOP has won 4 out of 17 statewide races. 3 of those winners (1981, 93, 97) got less than 51% of the vote. And, of course, we have lost most of the Assembly and Senate seats in the south. See a pattern?

Those South Jersey candidates, Norcross (no relation to the Democrat Norcross, I think) and Sandman, did so much for the GOP. Well, maybe Norcross helped in the way you mean, I don't know. But Sandman was an embarrassment whom everyone on the ticket had to run away from.

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