Pindell Report

Mercer County Democratic Chairman Richard McClellan seems to like having Roy Wesley as the GOP County Chairman.  In an e-mail to PolitickerNJ.com, McClellan commented on the decision to replace Sidna Mitchell on the GOP organization line with attorney William Harvey: "Roy Wesley's recruitment of Passaic political carpetbagger Bill Harvey (registered on 10-18-2008) for the 14th (and also last year's tapping of Cindy Randazzo after one year in town) is part of the Mercer Republicans' new ‘Welcome Wagon' strategy.  Every new Republican who moves into the county gets a petition for office, a blindfold and a cigarette."

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The filing deadline is Monday at 4PM, which means the campaign for State Assembly in the 21st district that some Republicans didn't want to start until after Eric Munoz's funeral today is already a little late.  Regardless of who wins the special election convention to fill the remaining ten months of his term, Republicans will need to file a candidate by Monday afternoon to avoid mounting a write-in campaign to win the June primary.

Republicans will likely put the name of a placeholder on their petitions - someone who will agree to drop out so the new candidate can run.  But election law in New Jersey is always a little fuzzy, and technically - not that the New Jersey Supreme Court necessarily cares - the Committee on Vacancies expires three days after the petitions are filed.  That could mean the Republicans will need to get their act together by next Thursday.

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Democrats say that West Windsor Mayor Shing-Fu Hsueh, an independent, has agreed not to endorse Republican candidates outside of local politics in exchange for no Democratic opposition in his re-election campaign in May.  His deal helps him avoid a three-way race and leaves him with one opponent, Councilman Charles Morgan, a Republican. 

Hsueh has annoyed Democrats in recent years with his support of Republican Bill Baroni in races for the Senate and Assembly.  He has reportedly agreed to support Democratic incumbents Linda Greenstein and Wayne DeAngelo in their Assembly bid next year, and not to endorse Baroni in 2011.  Four years ago, Baroni backed Hsueh's re-election bid, while Greenstein helped then-Councilwoman Allison Miller.

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The arrest of Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich and his top aide on charges, among other things, that he attempted to sell off his pick to replace President-elect Barack Obama's former Senate seat, creates a drama for political junkies just in time for the Holidays.

It has high drama allegation of bribes. It has big political families. It has ties to Obama. It involves the most exclusive club in the world and possibly the most corrupt office in the land.

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The Pindell Report, Politicker.com's political and campaign forecast, has released its final projections for Election Day. Using polling, historical and demographic trends, tracking campaign visits and spending, The Pindell Report ranks races in terms of their competitiveness and their status as either a toss-up or leaning or likely voting in a particular way.

In New Jersey, The Pindell Report's final breakdown is as follows:

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If Democrats wind up with 59 U.S. Senate seats on Election Day, they can still reach the magic filibuster-proof number of 60 if the new President appoints Republican Olympia Snowe to his cabinet. The Governor of Maine, John Baldacci, would presumably appoint a fellow Democrat to serve until a November 2010 special election to fill the balance of Snowe's term.

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Democrats will pick up congressional seats of retiring Reps. Jim Saxton and Mike Ferguson as part of a national trend that will net them seven U.S. Senate seats and sixteen House seats national, according to James Pindell, the editor of Politicker.com's Pindell Report, which provides independent analysis of federal and state races.

Pindell says that Democrat Frank Lautenberg will win re-election to the U.S. Senate and that Barack Obama will carry New Jersey and win its fifteen electoral votes.

"In two Republican-leaning districts, Democrats John Adler and Linda Stender are going to Congress," said Pindell. "Democrats have momentum and they're winning just about all of the marginal races."

The Pindell Report has the Senate at 58-41, and the House at 252-180.  The Senate races in Alaska, and House races in Florida, New Mexico and Kansas, remain toss-ups.

"The economy, Barack Obama, and George W. Bush combine to push Senate and House races that were toss-ups last week into the Democratic column," said Pindell.   "While the Democrats will control the White House and both houses of Congress, they won't get the 60 Senate seats they need for a filibuster-proof majority." Read More >

The Pindell Report, an independent analysis of state and federal races edited by Politicker.com's James W. Pindell, today upgraded the 3rd district House race from “Likely Democratic” to “Leans Democratic,” and said that the contest in the 7th district has become more competitive.

The ranking corresponds with more optimistic national prospects for Republicans, with presidential candidate John McCain surging in the two weeks since the Republican National Convention began.  In New Jersey, recent polls put McCain within three points of Barack Obama. 

“These are two longtime Republican seats.  Democrats haven't won the 3rd since 1882 and the 7th since 1956.  Republicans are getting over heated primaries, while Democrats had cleared the field for John Adler and Linda Stender,” said Pindell.  “While the Democrats have much more money, internal polls show this race to be getting a little closer.  If John McCain is getting the base behind him as polls suggest then Lance and Myers might have a shot after all.”

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The Pindell Report, a new Politicker.com product released today, shows New Jersey as being one of the most electorally competitive states in the country.

Two of the state's 13 congressional races are competitive, the report shows. Of the 435 U.S. House races across the country just 59 are considered competitive. New Jersey's 7th Congressional District race ranks as the 29th most competitive, while the 3rd Congressional District is listed as the 53rd most-competitive U.S. House race.

The Pindell Report, named after Politicker.com Managing Editor James Pindell, aims to provide the country's most dynamic and richly reported ranking and analysis of U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial races, plus presidential swing states.

In terms of context, 31 states have at least one competitive House race, but only six states have more than New Jersey's two, according to the report.

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