Rasmussen Reports

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 46%-43% -- a statistical dead heat -- with independent Christopher Daggett dropping to 7%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll released today.

Last week, Rasmussen had Christie ahead 41%-39%, with Daggett at 11%. 

“The decline in support for Daggett comes in a week when several state newspapers endorsed Christie or Corzine, but none followed the Star-Ledger’s lead and came out in favor of the independent candidate,” Rasmussen said.  “Additionally, Christie began a new ad campaign linking Corzine and Daggett.”

Corzine’s favorables are still upside-down, 41%-57%, the same as last week.  Christie is also around the same, 49%-49%.  40% of likely voters have a “very unfavorable” view of Corzine; for Christie, it’s 27%.

Daggett, a former state Commissioner of Environmental Protection, has favorables of 42%-40%.  His unfavorables are up eight points since last week and thirteen points over the last two weeks.

Christie has an eight-point lead among voters who say they are certain to vote and his supporters are less likely to change their minds, the poll says.  Corzine does better among registered voters who are less likely to turnout – which may be why President Obama and former President Bill Clinton are returning to New Jersey for the second time in as many weeks.

A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Republican Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by two points, 41%-39%, with 11% for independent Christopher Daggett.  

Rasmussen had Christie ahead 45%-41% in their October 15 poll, with Daggett at 11%.

Rasmussen’s release says that “Christie’s edge in the race has been fading rapidly” – a development unsurprising in light of the New Jersey Democrats’ history of catching up or taking a lead in the polls closer to election day.  

“Adding to the challenge this year, Corzine is expected to heavily outspend Christie during the final days which could be a game-changing factor,” wrote the pollster.

A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Republican challenger Christopher Christie with a three point lead, 47%-44%, over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, with independent Christopher Daggett at 6%.

But 21% of likely voters say they would consider voting for Daggett, and one-third (33%) are either undecided or say they could change their mind before they vote in the November gubernatorial election.

Among these voters, Dagget is the first choice for 27%, Corzine for 24% and Christie for 22%. But, most who prefer Dagget say they could change their mind before actually casting a vote.

Corzine and Christie both have upside-down favorable ratings.  Corzine is at 45%-52%, and Christie is at 46%-50%.  Corzine is at 37% very unfavorable, while Christie is at 23%.  Daggett's favorables are now at 44%-27%, but just 15% of likely voters have strong feelings about him, one way or the other.

The poll marks an improvement for Corzine, who was seven points behind just two weeks ago.  His 44% is the highest percentage he's received in a Rasmussen poll this year.

"It remains difficult to see how the Governor could reach the 50% level of support, but with a three- way race that may not be necessary," Rasmussen wrote.  "At the moment, Christie's voters are a bit more certain to actually show up and vote. However, in New Jersey, Democrats have traditionally displayed a stronger ground game to get-out-the-vote."

Of the 21% of voters say they'd consider pulling the lever for a third party option, Chris Dagget, 13% pick Dagget is their first choice, 5% are currently supporting Christie, and 3% are planning to vote for Corzine.

Republican Christopher Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by seven percentage points, 46%-39%, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released today.  Christie led Corzine by thirteen points, 51%-38%, in a Rasmussen poll just after Christie won the Republican primary.

But with leaners included, Christie's lead grows to twelve points, 53%-41%.

Voters, by a 55%-32% margin, say they trust Christie more than Corzine to cut their taxes

Corzine has upside-down job approvals of 40%-58%, and upside-down favorable of 43%-46%.  Christie has a favorable rating of 57%-36%.  Just 16% of voters strongly approve of Corzine's job as Governor, while 44% strongly disapprove.   Among those voters who say they could still change their minds, 60% disapprove of Corzine's performance including 38% who strongly disapprove.

Corzine's favorable are up two points from the June poll; Christie's are up four. 

The pollster pointed to Corzine's TV ads attacking Christie's ethics as a reason for the tightening of the race. 

"The other good news for Corzine is that 42% of voters statewide are either undecided or say they could change their minds," Rasmussen reports wrote.  "However, the flip side of that is good news for Christie: Nearly six-of-10 voters say they've made up their minds. Among those voters, Christie leads by 16.

A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Barack Obama leading John McCain by a 57%-42% margin in New Jersey, with a 17-point lead among undecided voters.

Prof. Murray Sabrin, a Ron Paul Republican, has stirred up the GOP primary with attacks on Anne EstabrookWhen Murray Sabrin entered the Republican U.S. Senate primary in January, the conventional wisdom was that, as a member of the Ron Paul wing of the Republican Party, he would draw votes from State Sen. Joe Pennacchio’s conservative base to help the moderate Anne Evans Estabrook shore up her own support for the June primary.

Although it’s still early on in the process, the outcome so far has been the opposite.

Sabrin has turned out to be an attack dog, challenging Estabrook’s Republican credentials and leaving Pennacchio unscathed. That has helped Pennacchio rack up county committee endorsements after winning the hearts of the party’s rank and file at conventions, while some of Estabrook’s exploratory committee members have started wavering in their support.

“I know that in some circles they were probably doing cartwheels and high fives when Murray got into the race, but my focus wasn’t Murray. It’s just doing what I’m doing,” said Pennacchio.

Democrat Frank Lautenberg leads State Sen. Joseph Pennacchio by only eight points, 46%-38%, in the race for U.S. Senate, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll of New Jersey voters released today.  The four-term incumbent leads businesswoman Anne Evans Estabrook 44%-34%, and Ramapo College professor Murray Sabrin 46%-31%.

“While the poll results are generally encouraging for Lautenberg, any incumbent who polls below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable,” said the pollster.