The newspaper endorsement season is about to begin in the three-way gubernatorial race between Democrat Jon Corzine, Republican Christopher Christie, and Independent Christopher Daggett.  During Corzine's first run for public office, the 2000 campaign for United States Senator, Republican Bob Franks was endorsed by seventeen daily newspapers, while Corzine won the backing of six.  Five years later, when Corzine ran for Governor, eight newspapers supported Corzine, while nine went for Republican Douglas Forrester.

Of the seventeen dailies that endorsed in both 2000 and 2005, three have endorsed Corzine twice: the Jersey Journal, the Trenton Times, and the New York Daily News.  Seven newspapers have never endorsed Corzine: The Record, the Asbury Park Press, the Courier-Post, the Daily Record, the Courier-News, the New York Post, and the Trentonian.

There is some speculation, mostly from those not in the know, that Daggett could get a share of print media support.  Newspaper endorsements rarely go to third party candidates: the Courier-Post backed Libertarian Murray Sabrin for Governor in 1997, and The Record, in a sort of "what the heck" kind of editorial that followed the crazy candidate switcheroo, went with Green Party candidate Ted Glick for U.S. Senate in 2002.  In 2001, the Trenton Times endorsed James E. McGreevey for Governor, and then wrote a separate editorial apologizing for not endorsing William Schluter, a Mercer County Republican State Senator who was running as an independent.  The editorial suggested that they liked Schluter best, but knew he could not win.

Corzine's newspaper endorsement record:

Former state Environmental Protection Commissioner Christopher Daggett, running for Governor as an independent, is at 12%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  That's a four-point increase from September 1 (9%) and a six point increase from August 11 (7%) for a candidate with 16% name ID statewide - 11% favorable -- who spent about $250,000 airing a single TV ad on New York TV.

Daggett is the only one of the ten independent gubernatorial candidates to be included in the poll.  He is also the only independent to qualify for matching funds, and the only independent to be included in the gubernatorial debates.  Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine has upside-down favorables, and voters are split on Republican Christopher Christie; the virtually unknown Daggett is the only alternative and some of his votes could wind up being cast for some of the other independent candidates.

In 1997, the last time a third party candidate received public financing and was included in the debates, a Quinnipiac poll had Libertarian Murray Sabrin at 8% in a three-way race with Republican Gov. Christine Todd Whitman (45%) and Democrat James E. McGreevey (37%). When the choices were expanded to all ten candidates, Sabrin dropped to 5% (which was his actual percentage on Election Day), with Whitman at 46% and McGreevey at 36%.

Two Independent gubernatorial candidates worth watching: former Commissioner of Environmental Protection Christopher Daggett, who will formally announce his candidacy on Monday, and Pastor Shannon Wright, who will enter the race tomorrow.  Daggett is a Republican who served in the cabinet of Gov. Thomas Kean and as Regional Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency during the Reagan administration, could pull votes from the GOP nominee for Governor.  Wright, who until yesterday was managing Republican Brian Levine's campaign for Governor, potentially draws African-American votes away from Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

Daggett and Wright will need to raise $340,000 in contributions of $3,400 or less in order to qualify for public financing and participate in the debate.

In New Jersey, independent statewide candidates traditionally do not fare well.  The only independent candidate to qualify for matching funds was Murray Sabrin, a Ramapo College Professor who ran as the Libertarian candidate for Governor in 1997.  Sabrin won 5% of the vote in his race against incumbent Christine Todd Whitman and her Democratic challenger, then-State Sen. James E. McGreevey.  A conservative, Richard Pezzullo, won 1% in the same race

In 2001, Bill Schluter, an incumbent Republican State Senator from Mercer County, mounted an independent bid for Governor.  He used the same campaign team that had elected Jesse Ventura in Minnesota three years earlier, but won just 1% of the vote against McGreevey and Republican Bret Schundler, the former Mayor of Jersey City. 

In 1981, eleven independent candidates combined to win 27,038 votes (1%); the Right to Life candidate, Bill Gahres, was the top vote getter with 4,525 votes.  Republican Thomas Kean beat Democrat Jim Florio in that race by just 1,797 votes statewide.

Former State Sen. William Schluter, a Republican who ran for Governor as an Independent eight years ago, said today that he will support former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie for the Republican nomination for Governor.

"The Republican Party wants to be united with Christie, and I like Chris (Daggett) very much but the reality is the money one needs to run for governor makes it very difficult for him to get support. I'll be with Christie," said Schluter.

Schluter, a longtime environmentalist and ethics reform champion, was serving as a Republican State Senator in 2001 when he decided to mount an Independent bid for Governor.  He received 1% of the vote.  Daggett, 58, a former Commissioner of Environmental Protection under Gov. Thomas Kean and Regional EPA Administrator under President Reagan, said earlier this week that he would seek the governorship as an Independent.

If you are a New Jersey State Senator, you are more likely to die in office than to win higher elective office. Under the current State Constitution, 49 sitting State Senators have asked voters to promote them to a new office, but only twelve have won.

Nearly half of the State Senators seeking higher office have run for Governor and all 21 have lost: Malcolm Forbes (1957), Wayne Dumont (1965), Raymond Bateman (1977) and James E. McGreevey (1997) won major party nominations but list the general election -- each time to an incumbent; William Schluter ran as an Independent in 2001; and Walter Jones (1961), Charles Sandman (1965), William Kelly (1969), Frank McDermott (1969), William Ozzard (1969), Harry Sears (1969), Ralph DeRose (1973), Raymond Garramone (1977), Frank Dodd (1981), William Hamilton (1981), Joseph Merlino (1981), James Wallwork (1981), Bill Gormley (1989) and Gerald Cardinale (1989).

If Democrat Valerie Huttle wins election to the State Assembly next month, she will become the first legislator in 38 years to win a first term in the lower house after previously running for the State Senate. The last time it happened was in 1967, when Republican William Schluter won an Assembly seat two years after losing a Senate race to the incumbent, Sido Ridolfi. Huttle ran a strong campaign against GOP Senator Louis Kosco in 1997.