Wilfredo Caraballo

Gov. Jon Corzine

Depending on who you talk to out there, the gubernatorial election comes down to either independent strength in the suburbs with proverbial lunch bucket conservative Democrats compelled to cross over to join Republican challenger Christopher Christie, or a show of force by Democrats in the urban areas who, despite feeling less than inspired by Gov. Jon Corzine, are sufficiently roused to battle down the Republican Party.

In this commonly designated blue state, Democrats outnumber Republicans 1,655,815 to 1,004,746. Independent voters (2,086,647) form the biggest block, and lean Democratic.

A 12-year veteran of the legislature who lost his 2007 reelection bid when he ran afoul of the local Democratic Party machine, former Assemblyman Wilfredo Caraballo (D-Newark) said he believes the Republican Party brand is too damaged to sell here in New Jersey.

While acknowledging his party's longtime statewide troubles, veteran Republican strategist David Murray meanwhile sees Corzine as essentially DOA among independents and bulk suburban voters, and finally incapable of ginning up enough base support to win.

It's brand versus man.

"The Black and Latino vote will decide this race," argued Caraballo, referring to the 807,558 registered voters from those ethnic groups among the state's 4,702,833 registered voters. "The more the Democratic Party links Christie to the Republican Party, whether people like Chris or not, even if they think he's good guy, if Corzine's campaign hits home that Christie is a Republican, and underscores what that means in 2009, they will have implemented one of the most potent arguments they could use against Christie."

Democratic State Chairman Joseph Cryan, above, could wind up as Assembly Majority Leader, if Gov. Jon Corzine picks Bonnie Watson Coleman as the Democratic nominee for Lt. Governor.

The bigger inside contest if Bonnie Watson Coleman leaves the Legislature to run for Lt. Governor is who would succeed her as Assembly Majority Leader.  Her two main competitors when she won the post after the 2005 election, Neil Cohen and Wilfredo Caraballo, are no longer in the Legislature.  The race is significant because next Majority Leader could become Assembly Speaker someday.

The conventional wisdom is that Assemblyman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), the Democratic State Chairman, would be a leading candidate for Majority Leader.  Cryan has a strong relationship with Speaker Joseph Roberts and with Democratic Party leaders across the state.  Watson Coleman was the Democratic State Chair before she became Majority Leader.

Assemblywoman Grace Spencer (D-Newark) is now expected to receive party support in her bid for re-election to a second term in 2009.

Freshman Assemblywoman Grace Spencer, a close political ally of Newark Mayor Cory Booker, appears positioned to get a second term in the Legislature next year.  There has been talk that Spencer might get dumped from the Essex Democratic line so that former Assemblyman William Payne could return, but now it looks like Payne will not be a candidate and Spencer will have a clear path.  

Steve Adubato, Jr., presides over a meeting between Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo, center, and Sen. Joseph Kyrillos.: Politicker photo 

SPRING LAKE - They drove and were driven to the Irish Riviera from all corners of New Jersey, in cars with government plates on them and dark SUVs and sedans with tinted glass, sporting sunglasses and paunches covered with sports jackets, mostly Democrats and a handful of Republicans, converging on this mansion by the sea.

Congressmen and mayors and assembly people and state senators and opposition researchers and retainers.

Standing at the front of the Seashell Dining Room in the Breakers to greet them was Steve Adubato, wearing a Hawaiian shirt and welcoming smile - and casting an eye that invariably sharpens human activity into the lineaments of political theater.

"I believe in the luck of the Irish," said the executive director of Newark’s North Ward Center and head of the Democratic Party in the North Ward, facing a sun-filled room packed with rivals hunched over plates of eggs and bacon: Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican State Party Chairman Tom Wilson; former Assemblyman Wilfredo Caraballo, and Assemblyman Albert Coutinho and Assemblwoman Grace Spencer; Essex County Executive Joseph DiVincenzo and Assemblyman Thomas Giblin (D-Montclair).

In this poor man’s Olympiad of Jersey ethnic groups gathered under one roof, Adubato highlighted - as he does annually at this North Ward Center-sponsored breakfast - the Irish, who now number 141,379 registered voters in New Jersey, or 47,514 Democrats, 36,063 Republicans and 57,802 independents.

Sen. Bob Menendez, earlier this year with Hillary Clinton: Getty Images Photo
No longer as involved in the day-to-day mechanics of local politics, Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) in back to back statewide elections has proved to be his party’s New Jersey go-to guy.

The former mayor of Union City got out the machine-backed Feb. 5 vote for Clinton with a war cry - "We have an opportunity in Hudson, Hudson, Hispanics, Hillary and history." And leading up to June 3, he helped U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman (D-9) stare down a party uprising in Bergen County that might have weakened crucial organizational support for U.S. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.)

Clinton won by ten points here with significant Latino support, and Lautenberg buried U.S. Rep. Rob Andrews (D-1) yesterday, 61-34%.

Steve Adubato’s alliance with South Jersey Democrats against the rest of the Democratic party leadership in the 2008 U.S. Senate race is ironic, considering he dumped Assemblyman Wilfredo Caraballo for doing essentially the same thing in 2006.

At age 75, Stephen Adubato Sr. continues to accumulate political allies by working both sides of the aisle and carefully engaging in battles that he can win. His organization captured Sharpe James’ State Senate seat (with Teresa Ruiz, a key lieutenant), he took out Assemblyman Wilfredo Caraballo (as he promised to do in 2006), picked up an Assembly seat (the one held by Bill Payne), and he continues to secure enormous funding for his power base, Newark’s North Ward Cultural Center. Adubato’s electoral success in 2007 was extraordinary, even as Newark Mayor Cory Booker’s candidate lost a race to Ron Rice.

Adubato is well-liked by New Jersey’s Governor and two U.S. Senators, has influence over Booker, and exercises substantial clout over the Essex County Hall of Records and the Newark City Council. He talks to just about every powerbroker in New Jersey. And this year, when he announced his support of Hillary Clinton for President, his endorsement was viewed as important enough to make Hotline, one of the nation’s most important political publications.

And while he’s a Democrat, Adubato has cultivated close relationships with key Republicans, like U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, GOP State Chairman Tom Wilson, and State Senators-elect Bill Baroni and Kevin O’Toole.

ASSEMBLY PASSES CARABALLO BILL TO STRENGTHEN HATE CRIME AND ANTI-BULLYING LAW
Measure Also Would Create a Commission on Bullying in Schools

(TRENTON) – The Assembly today passed legislation Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Wilfredo Caraballo sponsored to strengthen and expand New Jersey’s current laws against hate crimes and bullying.

CARABALLO & BATEMAN: DEATH PENALTY REPEAL RECEIVES FINAL LEGISLATIVE APPROVAL

Measure Would Replace Never-Used Statute with Life Imprisonment without Parole

(TRENTON) - Assemblymen Wilfredo Caraballo and Christopher "Kip" Bateman today applauded the General Assembly for heeding the findings of the New Jersey Death Penalty Study Commission and giving final legislative approval to a measure to abolish the state's capital punishment law and replace it with a sentence of life imprisonment without possibility of parole.

CARABALLO & BATEMAN: DEATH PENALTY REPEAL ON TRACK FOR FINAL PASSAGE THURSDAY

Measure Would Replace Never-Used Statute with Life Imprisonment without Parole

(TRENTON) - Assemblymen Wilfredo Caraballo and Christopher "Kip" Bateman today urged a key Assembly panel to heed the findings of the New Jersey Death Penalty Study Commission and abolish the state's capital punishment law and replace it with a sentence of life imprisonment without possibility of parole.