Despite his $1 million war chest and a one year head start, freshman U.S. Rep. John Adler (D-Cherry Hill) is suddenly in trouble.  One year after Adler was elected to Congress by a 52%-48% margin, Republican Christopher Christie carried the third district by a massive 56%-39% margin over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.  Christie carried 45 of the 52 towns in Adler's district, and beat Corzine by over 35,000 votes.  In 2008, Barack Obama carried the district 52%-47%, and George W. Bush won it 51%-49% in 2004.

Now the race for the GOP nomination to take on Adler seems to have attracted at least two formidable candidates: NFL defensive tackle Jon Runyan, who spent ten years with the Philadelphia Eagles; and three-term Toms River Councilman Maurice "Mo" Hill, a dentist and retired U.S. Navy Rear Admiral who served in Operational Desert Storm.  Runyan, a 36-year-old Mount Laurel resident, said today that he will officially retire from the NFL after the current season is over and plans to formally announce his candidacy in February.  Hill, 62, is leaning towards running - he was re-elected to his Council seat with 69% of the vote last month.  Toms River is the largest municipality in the district; 13% of the total votes cast in the gubernatorial election came from Toms River. (Hill is a ward councilman and has never run townwide.)

It will be up to Ocean County GOP Chairman George Gilmore to decide if he wants to clear the field for Runyan, who already has the backing of the Burlington County GOP organization.  Gilmore is riding high this year after delivering Christie a 70,000 vote margin out of Ocean, and may not want to let Burlington have a second shot at the House seat.  But Gilmore has not closed the door to backing Runyan, and will probably wait to see what Runyan does once the football season is over -- read that as "how big a check will Runyan write to his own campaign, and how much money can he raise by March 1."

In the 2008 Republican primary, Medford Mayor Christopher Myers (backed by the Burlington GOP) beat Gilmore's candidate, Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly, by a 49%-25% margin.  Ocean produced 51% of the total votes cast, but Kelly was hurt by the presence of a third candidate, former Tabernacle Councilman Justin Murphy, who beat Kelly by nearly 1,800 votes in Burlington.  Myers also had the line in Camden County, which produces about 5% of the total GOP primary votes.

Only two Democrats have won what is now the third congressional district since Chester Arthur was President: Thomas Ferrell and John Adler.  PolitickerNJ.com looks at the chain of custody, not district numbers, to determine the lineage of a particular seat in Congress.

In 1882, with just 50.1% of the vote, Ferrell, a former State Senator, Assemblyman and Glassboro Committeeman, ousted Republican George Robeson, a two-term Congressman with an impressive resume. A Civil War General, Robeson spent two years as state Attorney General and nearly eight years as U.S. Secretary of the Navy in the cabinet of President Ulysses Grant.

Ferrell was beaten for re-election in 1884 by Republican George Hires, a former Salem County Sheriff and State Senator.  Hires won 50%-45%, starting a 124-year streak of Republican victories in this congressional district.

John Adler could be the first Democrat to capture a congressional seat (Jim Saxton's seat) in his district since Thomas Ferrell won in 1882, and Linda Stender, if she wins, she'll be the first Democrat to hold that seat (Mike Ferguson's seat) since Harrison Williams lost to Florence Dwyer in 1956.  New Jersey's House seats, with the last time the other party held them:

The two New Jersey House seats most clearly in play next year are the two that have been held by the Republicans for the longest period of time: Democrats have not won the seat now held by Jim Saxton for 126 years, and Mike Ferguson’s district has not elected a Democrat since 1954.

Democrats are almost giddy over the increasingly divisive primary in New Jersey’s third congressional district, where Republicans Christopher Myers and Jack Kelly – each with the support of one major county GOP organization and with virtually the same amount of money – are likely increasing their negatives as they beat up on their opponents.  That’s good news for Democrat John Adler, the Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman, who has no primary opponent and over $1 million in his warchest as he seeks to win a seat the Republicans have held continuously since Thomas Ferrell lost re-election in 1884.