Super Tuesday

Hillary Clinton won an estimated 59 delegates in the February 5 New Jersey Democratic primary, while 48 delegates will go to Barack Obama. More delegates will be awarded by the Democratic State Committee in April. 

Two super delegates, Sen. Frank Lautenberg and Rep. Rush Holt, have not yet committed.

Only 70 of New Jersey's 127 delegates to the 2008 Democratic National Convention are at stake today -- 39 more delegates will be selected by the Democratic State Committee on April 17, and the remaining 18 -- mostly DNC members and top elected officials -- are automatic delegates. The delegates are apportioned based on the percentage of vote received by the presidential candidate. Assuming no candidate gets below 15% of the vote, in a district with three delegates, a candidate who gets 50%+1 gets two of the three delegates; in a district with four delegates, a candidate would need 63% to get three of the four.

The Associated Press reported this morning that Gov. Jon Corzine couldn’t vote at his Hoboken polling location early this morning because the voting machines were not working.  Election officials are not accustomed to running elections in February – should New Jerseyans expect more problems like this?

Perhaps it wasn’t the best strategic campaign stop for John McCain, but he came to Hamilton today anyway accompanied by an entourage of nationally prominent Republicans and even one former Democratic vice presidential candidate.

Joining McCain today at the Colonial Volunteer Firehouse were Rudy Giuliani, Sen. Joe Lieberman [I/D-CT], Sen. Phil Graham [R-TX], Sen. Lindsey Graham [R-SC], Florida Gov. Charlie Crist and Rep. Vito Fossella [R-NY].

It was also a time to shine for McCain’s tried and true New Jersey supporters – especially those who backed the candidate even when his campaign was hobbled by low cash and low poll numbers: State Senators Bill Baroni, Kevin O’Toole and Sean Kean; GOP State Chairman Tom Wilson; Morris County Freeholder John Murphy; former 9th district congressional candidate Vincent Micco and Bergen County Clerk Kathe Donovan. 

In our year-end review of New Jersey politics, PolitickerNJ.com gave our worst prediction of the year award to Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts for touting the relevance of New Jersey’s February 5 presidential primary. At the time, Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani held massive leads in this state.

One sign that Hillary Clinton’s New Jersey campaign may have been a bit overconfident -- her campaign sent out an e-mail this afternoon recruiting lawyers to work on Election Day: “As you know, tomorrow – February 5, 2008 – is primary election day across New Jersey.  As in years past, we are assembling a statewide team of volunteer attorneys to work at the polling places, respond to potential problems, make court applications, answer questions, assist the field operation, and generally help the campaign’s legal efforts.  These efforts by volunteer attorneys on Election Day are an integral part of ensuring proper conduct throughout the election, protecting every person’s right to vote, and making sure every vote counts.”

Governor Jon Corzine will vote in Hoboken at 6:15 AM and then help Hillary Clinton by meeting some commuters at the Jersey City PATH station.  His schedule has no other public events on Super Tuesday until 8:00 PM, when he’ll attend a Clinton primary party at the Skylark Diner in Edison.

There's still one big fish who has not endorsed a candidate in the 2008 Democratic presidential contest: U.S. Senator Frank Lautenberg.  But Lautenberg's people say there is no chance the four-term Senator will pick between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama before tomorrow's New Jersey primary.

A new Quinnipiac poll has Hillary Clinton leading Barack Obama, 48%-43%: Getty Images Photo
Hillary Clinton's lead in New Jersey has shrunk to just five points and leads Barack Obama 48%-43% among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning. On the Republican side, John McCain leads Mitt Romney 52%-30%.

"Sen. Obama has put together a coalition of blacks and independents to dramatically narrow the gap in just the last few days in New Jersey, but the big question remains: Will there be enough of these new, young, first time voters showing up to pull a surprise on Super Tuesday?" said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The Quinnipiac poll mirrors one conducted at the end of last week by Democratic pollster Stanley Greenberg for George Norcross that showed Clinton ahead by six points. Clinton had a 17-point lead in a January 23 Quinnipiac poll, and had been ahead by as much as 34 points late last year.