Stuart Rothenberg

Gov. Jon Corzine is outspending his Republican opponent by a 3-1 margin in his bid for re-election to a second term, but he's still spending less than he did when he ran four years ago.

Maurice Carroll, who runs the Quinnipiac University poll, doesn't read much into that.

"Whatever they tell him he'll have to spend, he'll spend. Which I guess is good for the economy.  It pays for a lot of consultants, television stations are getting rich," he said.

Corzine has raised and spend $16.8 million so far - a bit down from the $20.1 million he raised and $18.6 million he spent as of the same point in his last campaign.  

That's complicated by one key difference. In a late September, 2005 Quinnipiac poll, Corzine led Douglas Forrester by four points.  Now, in the latest Quinnipiac poll, he trails Republican Christopher Christie by four.

But Corzine faced an opponent with more cash in Forrester, a wealthy businessman who opted not to take part in the public financing program and ultimately spent almost $20 million of his own money in the general election.  By contrast, Christie's spending is capped at $10.9 million because he's taking part in the public financing program. 

Carroll's polls show Corzine succeeding in tarnishing Christie's image, but Corzine's approval and favorability ratings have remained mired in the 38%-42% range.  He doesn't think that Corzine is concerned with boosting those numbers.

"It's just like with all you reporters.  The only number he's really interested in is the basic head to head. And in that, Corzine's doing better than he has in quite a while," Carroll said.

Washington, DC-based political analyst Stuart Rothenberg said he was surprised that Corzine was not spending more than he did in previous races, since he's been behind in 44 out of the last 45 polls independent public opinion polls. 

"Given all the numbers we were throwing around about how much Corzine would spend, having spent less than four years ago is something of a surprise," he said.

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Three DC-based political publications have changed their ratings of the New Jersey gubernatorial race, with all of them showing momentum for Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie against Gov. Jon Corzine.

Corzine's pre-existing polling woes have combined with the aftershocks of last week's corruption bust to make for an even steeper climb to reelection, according to the publications.  

A few days ago, political analyst Stuart Rothenberg moved the race’s rating from “Toss-Up” to “Leans-Takeover” in The Rothenberg Political Report, giving Christie a clear advantage in the race.  Rothernberg wrote a column that appeared in The Hill today titled “You Have 4 months to Learn to Say ‘Gov. Christie.’”

“The raid last week in New Jersey that resulted in the arrest of 44 people, including a number of officeholders, probably is the straw that breaks Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine’s back in November,” Rothenberg wrote, adding that corruption isn’t the biggest issue on voters’ minds but that they’ll likely “kill two birds with one vote” and go for Chrisitie.  Read More >

To get a true picture of where the New Jersey gubernatorial race stands right now, analysts and pollsters say you need to look past the horse race poll numbers and focus instead on some of the recent suveys' underlying questions.

While the head-to-head match ups demonstrate a clear trend of Republican Christopher Christie consistently leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, they're malleable this early in the campaign, and fluctuations in that number- whether swings or incremental changes - should be taken with a grain of salt.  Voters, for the most part, do not start paying attention until September at the earliest.

"That's why the campaigns are paying attention to all the stuff underneath that: the favorability rating, the issue ratings," said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, whose organization, along with Gannett New Jersey, is releasing its own poll on Thursday.

What's clear is that Governor Corzine faces enormous political problems, and that the public is clearly in an anti-incumbent mood.  But there is still time - especially given Corzine's huge monetary advantage - to close the gap with Christie.

In the Quinnipiac University poll released today, Murray said the most important number is the 40% of voters who don't know enough about Christie to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.  Although Christie's favorables remains net positive, there's plenty of room for his unfavorables to increase.

"That 40% who don't know Chris Christie hanging out there in this poll, that's got to leave his campaign worried," he said.

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With Gov. Jon Corzine's consistently low job approval ratings giving Republicans hope of winning their first statewide campaign in New Jersey since 1997, there has been some low-frequency buzz in Washington about this state's election as a bellwether for the national political climate.

But two political analysts from inside the beltway cast doubt on the race's national significance, although Republicans could use a victory here, rightly or wrongly, as a sign of the party's resurgence.

"I think people, at least inside the beltway, for what it's worth, see that Corzine is not in great shape. They blame the economy and figure he'll eke out a win just on the basis of money," said Cook Political Report Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy.  "A lot of Republicans kind of shrug their shoulders and say we're probably going to have a really good candidate there, and he's going to come really close, but we might get buried in Corzine's money."

Republicans are also looking to Virginia - the only other state that holds an off-year gubernatorial election - for some sign of hope.  There has been a three-decade trend in Virginia of the party that wins the White House loses the state house the following year.

Corzine's disapproval rating of 54% in a Quinnipiac poll, along with his 50% unfavorable rating, would under typical circumstances put presumed Republican frontrunner Chris Christie in a good position to defeat him in November.  But Corzine, Duffy said, has three things going for him: cash, the inherent Democratic nature of New Jersey and an ally in President Barack Obama, who remains popular in the state.

"I think he's in a unique position. Almost anybody else faces an incredibly uphill battle," she said.

Duffy analogized national Republican hopes for a win to comic strip character Charlie Brown's famous run at the football before his friend Lucy pulls it away.

"They'll go try to kick the ball again, but if they fall flat on their backs they won't be all that surprised," she said.

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Worth noting are the comments of Stuart Rothenberg, the editor and publisher of The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan political newsletter covering U.S. House, Senate and gubernatorial campaigns, Presidential politics and political developments, on the race for Congress in New Jersey's fifth district between Democrat Dennis Shulman and U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage):

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In less than two weeks, two out of the three Republicans targeted by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee have decided not to seek re-election.

According to Stuart Rothenberg, Editor-in-Chief of the Rothenberg Political Report, that's got to hurt.  "Right now with a Democrat who just ran in a marginal district, in what could be a bad time for Republicans, an open seat only adds to the Republicans' headache," said political analyst Stu Rothenberg, Editor-in-Chief of the Rothenberg Political Report. "The retirement adds another layer of doubt to Republicans' hold on the seat"

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The Rothenberg Political Report says New Jersey's 3rd district congressional seat is a toss-upU.S. Rep. Jim Saxton’s pending retirement has dramatically increased the likelihood of Democrats picking up the seat, according to Washington-based political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

On Friday, after Saxton’s announcement, Rothenberg reclassified the status of the third district Congressional seat in his Political Report from “Republican favored,” the least vulnerable category for competitive races, to “pure toss-up,” the most vulnerable. But that could all change depending on who the Republicans recruit to face off against state Sen. John Adler.

“We thought it was going to be a race. We were waiting to see what kind of campaign Adler ran and what the environment was going to be,” said Rothenberg. “It didn’t seem like the best of opportunities, but now it’s turned out to be what could be one of the dozen best opportunities in the country depending upon Republican recruiting.”

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National Republicans should think twice about devoting resources to challenge Sen. Frank Lautenberg, according political analyst Stuart Rothenberg.

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From Roll Call's Stuart Rothenberg: "All things being equal, the GOP's s best chance for a Senate win is in New Jersey, where state Sen. Tom Kean Jr., the son of a former governor, is running on a message of reform against appointed Sen. Bob Menendez."

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From Roll Call's Stuart Rothenberg: "New Jersey is easy to decipher. Democratic presidential nominees John Kerry and Al Gore carried it by 7 and 16 points respectively, drawing 53 and 56 percent. Jon Corzine drew 53 percent of the vote and won by almost 10 points on Tuesday. In other words, a Democratic state elected a Democratic governor by a 'normall" Democratic margin."

When strong Doug Forrester ran for the United States Senate in 2002, George W. Bush had an approval rating of 63%, yet Forrester lost to Frank Lautenberg by ten percentage points.

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