Steven Lonegan

Bill Pascoe managed Republican statewide primaries in New Jersey in 2001 and 2002. He won both of them.

Republican consultant Bill Pascoe, who has managed several statewide campaigns in New Jersey, said that, if asked, he would advise presumed GOP frontrunner Chris Christie to shore up the primary vote by tightening his attacks on Gov. Corzine.

Pascoe said that today's Quinnipiac poll of likely Republican primary voters showing Christie ahead of rival Steve Lonegan by nine points - a much narrower gap than Christie's numbers against Lonegan among registered Republicans in past surveys - means that Christie ignores the primary challenge at his own peril.  Pascoe said that Christie can appeal to conservatives by going even harder after Corzine.

In 2002, Pascoe managed Doug Forester's U.S. Senate campaign, and said he managed to make him appeal to conservatives to win the primary.

"We made the moderate Doug Forester look like he was the most conservative guy in the Republican primary because we did a better job of attacking the incumbent Democrat that all the conservatives in New Jersey couldn't stand, Bob Torricelli."

The tightening of the Republican gubernatorial primary has some pundits wondering whether Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine will spend some money in May beating up on Republican Christopher Christie, with the hope that he can boost Steve Lonegan's chances to win the GOP nomination.  A Quinnipiac University poll released today shows Corzine trailing Christie by seven points, but in a dead heat with Lonegan.

Seven years ago in California, Gov. Gray Davis was struggling to win the approval of voters as he sought re-election to a second term.  The candidate he most feared, former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, had a 30-point lead in the race for the Republican nomination over conservative (and native New Jerseyan) Bill Simon.  Davis, facing minor candidates in the Democratic primary, spent $10 million on ads attacking Riordan.  That helped Simon win a 49%-31% victory over Riordan in the GOP primary.  Davis beat Simon in the general election, 47%-42%.

School budgets passed in the hometowns of every major candidate for Governor but the incumbent.  In Hoboken, where Gov. Jon Corzine lives, voters rejected the proposed school budget by 111 votes (52%-48%). 

In Mendham Township, the hometown of two Republican candidates, former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie and Assemblyman Rick Merkt, the school budget passed 482-393, 55%-45%.  In Bogota, where Steven Lonegan served three terms as Mayor, voters passed the budget by 37 votes, 54%-46%. 

Glen Ridge, the hometown of Corzine's Democratic primary challenger, former Mayor Carl Bergmanson, approved their school budget by a 65%-35% margin, 252 votes.   In Franklin Township, where Republican Brian Levine is Mayor, the budget passed by 1,385 votes, 65%-35%.

In a general election matchup, a new Quinnipiac University poll has former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by seven percentage points, 45%-38%.  Among Independents, Christie leads 50%-31%.

Christie also leads 49%-37% among men, 53%-31% among white voters, and 90%-3% among Republicans.  Corzine leads 70%-14% among black voters, and 73%-12% among Democrats. 

Among women, Christie leads Corzine 41%-40%, a statistical tie.

Christie leads 55%-27% among voters in Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren counties, and 59%-23% among voters in Monmouth, Ocean, Atlantic and Cape May counties.  Corzine leads 60%-29% in Essex and Hudson counties.  The race is a dead heat among voters in Bergen, Passaic, Union, Middlesex and Mercer counties (Corzine 42%, Christie 40%), and among voters in Burlington, Camden, Gloucester, Cumberland and Salem counties (Christie 41%, Corzine 40%).

The story of the day is that front runner Christopher Christie, who led Steve Lonegan by 21 points in a March 12 Quinnipiac poll, now leads Lonegan by nine points, 46%-37%, in a new Quinnipiac poll released early this morning.  The good news for Christie is that his support among Republicans has increased by six percentage points over the last five weeks, and he continues to enjoy a strong fundraising advantage.  For Lonegan, a race that puts him within single digits of the former U.S. Attorney is encouraging news -- and helpful to his final fundraising push.  The bad news for both candidates is that most  New Jerseyans still don't know who they are.  The worst news comes for Gov. Jon Corzine, struggling against GOP candidates that are still essentially unknown and being held accountable for the state's economic woes.

Christie leads Lonegan 46%-37% among likely Republican primary voters, and 39%-24% among registered Republicans.  His lead among Republican women (45%-33%) is stronger than among Republican men (46%-40%).

Christie has favorables of 31%-11%, while 56% of the state's voters still haven't heard of him. He was at 31%-7% in March.  Among Republicans, Christie has favorables of 56%-4%.

More than seven out of ten New Jersey voters have not heard of Steve Lonegan.  His favorables are at 20%-7%; he was at 15%-7% in March.  Lonegan has favorables of 35%-4% among Republican voters. 

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan by nine points, 46%-37%, in the race for the Republican nomnation for Governor, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.  Christie had led Lonegan 40%-19% in a poll taken by Quinnipiac last month.  

“Christopher Christie’s lead over Steve Lonegan in the Republican primary shrinks as we shift from registered voters to likely voters.  These Republican loyalists are less impressed by a political newcomer than a party veteran,” Richards said.

In a general election matchup Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by seven points, 45%-38%, and is tied with Steve Lonegan, 41%-41%.  

Corzine an upside-down job approval rating of 37%-54% -- the worst of his nine-year political career.  He was at 40%-50% in March.

“The economy is killing Gov. Jon Corzine’s approval rating in New Jersey so much that he is vulnerable not only to a strong challenger such as Chris Christie but a lesser known Republican such as Mayor Steve Lonegan,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “By any measure, Corzine is losing the support of key independent voters.  More importantly, he is not generating the level of love from fellow Democrats he needs to offset his big negatives among Republicans and independents."

Richards says it will be tough for Corzine to win re-election when six out of ten New Jerseyans disapprove of his handling of the economy.

“But Corzine has a great potential equalizer in this campaign – the millions he will spend to get his message across," said Richards. 

Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham) is excluded from the two official GOP gubernatorial debates because he did not raise $340,000

Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Merkt, who is not allowed to participate in the two televised debates sanctioned by the Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC) because he did not raise or spend enough money to qualify, is considering a legal challenge to force his inclusion.

"I understood you had to debate if you accepted money, but I never realized the statute was drawn in such a way as to preclude anyone else from participating, which I find as a good metaphor for how the closed the system is," said Merkt, who is also an Assemblyman from Mendham.  "If you think about this, what it means is the chosen candidates -- those who accept taxpayer dollars - basically get a huge unreported in-kind contribution from the networks involved."

Since ELEC started sanctioning debates for public-financed candidates in 1989, its statute has limited participation to those who have qualified for matching funds by raising at least $340,000, or those who have opted not to take matching funds but have raised and spent at least the same amount.

Merkt is considering challenging the statute in court, though he has not yet decided whether it's worth the trouble.

Quinnipiac University will release a new poll on the 2009 race for Governor and Gov. Jon Corzine's approval ratings on Wednesday morning.  The March 12 Quinnipiac poll had Corzine with an upside-down 40%-50% job approval rating and an upside down 38%-50% favorable rating.  Republican Christopher Christie led Corzine 46%-37%, and led former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan in a GOP primary ballot test, 40%-19%.

Former U.S. Attorney Christ Christie filed an additional $247,689 today, which could bring him in an additional $495,378 in matching funds

Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie has received $2,354,472 in matching funds, more than double the $989,475 that has gone to his chief rival, Steven Lonegan.  The former U.S. Attorney filed an additional $247,689 today; if the Election Law Enforcement Commission approves this submission, the Christie campaign will get an additional $495,378 from the state. Christie needs to raise $124,425 more to receive the maximum $3.1 million match. 

Lonegan filed today with $99,618, which will bring him an additional $199,236.  He needs to raise needs to raise another $955,644 to max out.

The third candidate in the GOP primary, Assemblyman Richard Merkt (R-Mendham), did not raise the $360,000 threshold to qualify for matching funds.

Former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan has won the endorsment of the New Jersey Conservative Party Chairman.

New Jersey Conservative Party (NJCP) State Chairman Stephen Spinosa will "temporarily resign" his post because he has changed his party registration to Republican in support of Steve Lonegan's campaign for Governor.  Spinosa has urged the 45 voters registered as members of the New Jersey Conservative Party to change their registration to Republican and then change back after the June primary.   Spinosa says the NJCP has also endorsed Michael Doherty for State Senate, and Michael Patrick Carroll and Alison Littell McHose for Assembly.

Spinosa's statement, in entirety: