Steven Lonegan

Gov. Jon Corzine has an upside-down 40%-49% approval rating and trails Republican Christopher Christie by four percentage points, 39%-35%, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.  Corzine has an upside-down favorable rating of 43%-47%.

Corzine leads another Republican, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, 37%-33%. 

The poll did not include a Republican primary ballot test.

“For a Democratic incumbent in a blue state like New Jersey, Jon Corzine is certainly not in an enviable position.” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “However, the Republican primary campaign has recently taken a nasty turn which may have stalled Chris Christie’s momentum and boosted Steve Lonegan’s profile.”

Republican Christopher Christie has now raised enough money to receive the maximum amount of matching funds under the state's gubernatorial public financing program.  As of last week, Christie needed to file an additional $124,425 to receive the maximum $3.1 million match; sources say he did that today.

Christie still needs to raise some additional funds, about $200,000, to reach the $5 million spending cap on primary campaigns.

His chief competitor, Steven Lonegan, needed to raise an additional $955,644 to max out. 

By tradition, the winner of the Republican gubernatorial primary gets to pick the new GOP State Chairman.  But some insiders are saying that if Steve Lonegan upsets Christopher Christie on June 2, its possible - if not likely - that the Republican establishment won't cede control of the state party organization to their standard bearer.

The individual elected to lead the Republican State Committee in June will get a six-month term.  Party leaders can decide next January if they want a new State Chairman.  Republican legislative leaders are not likely to let Lonegan control the state party - and appointments to the legislative redistricting commission - unless he is elected Governor.

Anxious to unite the party after his upset victory in 2001, Bret Schundler chose to retain the incumbent, State Sen. Joseph Kyrillos (R-Middletown), who had been picked for the post a few months earlier by Acting Gov. Donald DiFrancesco.  As part of the deal, Kyrillos replaced his new Executive Director, Alan Raymond, with Evan Kozlow, who had been Political Director of the Schundler campaign.  Kyrillos held the seat until he stepped down in 2004, which left the state party apparatus in the hands of the party leadership and not with Schundler supporters.

The release of an internal campaign poll by Steven Lonegan that shows him running dead even with his Republican gubernatorial opponent, Christopher Christie, is meant to create the impression of a surging grassroots campaign, not unlike the one run by former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler in 2001.

Back then, Schundler, who like Lonegan is a staunch conservative, ran an insurgent campaign that defeated former U.S. Rep. Bob Franks in the GOP primary.  Franks, like Christie, was the establishment favorite and had the overwhelming organizational support.

Now Schundler has endorsed Christie to win the job he twice sought.

State Sen. Bill Baroni (R-Hamilton), who was the counsel for the Franks campaign and is now a co-chairman of the Christie campaign, said that he did not have enough information to comment on the accuracy of the Lonegan poll.  But he sees two key differences between the two races.

For one, Franks was not the establishment pick from the beginning.  Instead, he was tapped to replace Acting Gov. Donald DiFrancesco who dropped out after several ethics controversies damaged his bid - a maneuver that involved passing legislation to move the primary back three weeks, extending DiFrancesco's committee on vacancies deadline to pick his successor.  That annoyed primary voters.

"People just thought it was distasteful.  And I don't think the Franks campaign caught that until it was too late," Baroni said.

And while Lonegan may argue to the contrary, Christie, unlike Franks, claims to be pro-life.  His endorsement by the vocally pro-life U.S. Rep. Chris Smith (R-Hamilton), said Baroni, is enough to assuage conservative doubts on that front.

"Don't underestimate the importance of the fact that Chris is pro-life, where Bob is not," he said.

Steve Lonegan's campaign has internal polling that shows the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination to be a statistical dead heat, with Christopher Christie leading 36.1%-34.5%, according data obtained by PolitickerNJ.com.  Rick Merkt receives .4% of the vote.

Among likely voters, the race is within two-tenths of one percent, with Christie leading Lonegan 36.6%-36.4%.  Merkt has .5%.

The survey, conducted April 19-24, by Neighborhood Research, a firm owned by Lonegan strategist Rick Shaftan, finds that 70% of the likely Republican primary voters polled consider themselves to be conservative, while 24% say they are moderates and 4% identify themselves as liberal.  

The poll claims that "Christie and Lonegan have near universal name ID and virtually identical favorables, although a higher percentage is unfavorable or mixed on Christie.  Rick Merkt is virtually unknown."

Among likely voters, Christie has a 44%-12% favorable rating with 97% name ID.  Lonegan is at 43%-7%, with 93% name ID.  A majority of voters, the poll says, view Christie as moderate or liberal, while 56% identify Lonegan as a conservative.

The middle class taxpayers of New Jersey are under assault. They are caught in the cross hairs of an attack from their liberal tax and spend Governor and surprisingly from the right, in an attack from their supposed friend in ultra conservative candidate Steve Lonegan.  While Governor Corzine's plan to increase taxes, to end the property tax rebates and to eliminate the deduction for our outrageous property taxes for the middle class were to be expected, I had some hope for relief from Mr. Lonegan.  As I have some insight into State Budgets and New Jersey's tax policies, I thought I would check him out.

I have to wonder if he simply does not understand the New Jersey income tax system, or worse if he actually intends to increase the income taxes for two thirds of New Jersey's residents. While his plan sounds simple and perhaps appealing, the idea that we could replace our current graduated tax rate with a single or flat rate system, a simple review of the numbers shows  this plan to be a flat out loser, destroying the middle class and seniors while rewarding only the most affluent. 

Mr. Lonegan claimed in his press release that his plan would benefit an "overwhelming majority of homeowners and taxpayers", the facts and the numbers are not on his side. I went to the Department of Treasury website and looked at the data for the most current tax year and confirmed my belief that his plan would devastate the middle class and the senior citizens of this State.

After months of virtually ignoring Republican gubernatorial rival Steve Lonegan despite his taunts and negative campaign pieces, former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie this week responded in kind.

In a new one minute radio ad, the Christie camp rips into Lonegan's record as mayor of Bogota, his campaign stances and his history of failed campaigns for various offices.

The advertisement represents a major shift in strategy for Christie, who has so far focused his criticism almost exclusively on Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, while usually not referring to Lonegan by name in remarks that touch on the Republican primary.

Alternating between a male and female narrator, the spot first says "You're Steve Lonegan, and you have a problem" before charging Lonegan with proposing to raise property taxes while mayor of Bogota.

"Steve Lonegan: The Bergen Record says you proposed raising property taxes in your own town 15%," says the female voice.

A Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday showed just two percent of Republican primary voters supporting gubernatorial candidate Richard Merkt (R-Mendham) - just within the poll's 2.1% margin of error.

That's not cause for despair for Merkt, who does not plan to give up.  He does not see his quest as quixotic, nor is he merely trying a statement.

"This is New Jersey, and weird stuff happens in New Jersey, and weird stuff happens in New Jersey very late," said Merkt.  "Remember Torricelli?  Candidates implode at times or explode, and it is not impossible that there could be a surprise in store for us in this election."

Both the Democratic and Republican primaries this year include candidates who can claim the legitimacy of being former or current elected officials, but whose campaigns have not gained any traction in polls.  The Republicans have Merkt, and had Franklin Township Mayor Brian Levine until he was kicked off the ballot for insufficient signatures.  Democrats have former Glen Ridge Mayor Carl Bergmanson, who has the added challenge of running against a wealthy incumbent governor, Jon Corzine.

"I've invested eight months of time and effort in this, and I've managed to get on the ballot, and I hope to get into the debates," said Merkt, who is talking to NJN Interim News Director Michael Aron about the prospect of setting up a televised debate that he, too, can participate in.  "There's no reason for me that I can see to pull out at this point."

Still, apart from a nightmare scenario for GOP frontrunner Christopher Christie, the former U.S. Attorney, or his closer rival, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, Merkt feels that his candidacy has made a difference in the campaign.  The other candidates, he said, now talk about his pet issue: the make-up of the State Supreme Court.

In Merkt's view, one can't affect change in the state without altering the makeup Supreme Court first.  Four out of the seven justices will come up for reappointment during the next gubernatorial term, while one is set to reach the mandatory age of retirement.  The governor is required to keep a partisan balance on the court, although Merkt could try to find Democrats who share his political philosophy.

"In one regard, I view this campaign as a huge success because this issue has finally come to the fore," said Merkt.

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Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie has a 40%-15% lead in the Republican gubernatorial primary over former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, according to a new Strategic Vision poll.

In the race for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, a new Strategic Vision poll has former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leading former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan by 25 percentage points, 40%-15%.  Franklin Mayor Brian Levine, who may not be on the ballot, runs third with 4%, followed by Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham) with 2%.  Nearly four out of ten Republicans polled (39%) remain undecided.

The poll gives Gov. Jon Corzine an upside-down 36%-54% approval rating.  Corzine trails Christie by eleven points, 47%-36%, but leads Lonegan 44%-39% and Merkt 45%-30%.  The incumbent is in a statistical dead heat against Levine, leading 42%-40%.

The Strategic Vision poll gives President Obama a 58%-35% approval rating in New Jersey. 

With Gov. Jon Corzine's consistently low job approval ratings giving Republicans hope of winning their first statewide campaign in New Jersey since 1997, there has been some low-frequency buzz in Washington about this state's election as a bellwether for the national political climate.

But two political analysts from inside the beltway cast doubt on the race's national significance, although Republicans could use a victory here, rightly or wrongly, as a sign of the party's resurgence.

"I think people, at least inside the beltway, for what it's worth, see that Corzine is not in great shape. They blame the economy and figure he'll eke out a win just on the basis of money," said Cook Political Report Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy.  "A lot of Republicans kind of shrug their shoulders and say we're probably going to have a really good candidate there, and he's going to come really close, but we might get buried in Corzine's money."

Republicans are also looking to Virginia - the only other state that holds an off-year gubernatorial election - for some sign of hope.  There has been a three-decade trend in Virginia of the party that wins the White House loses the state house the following year.

Corzine's disapproval rating of 54% in a Quinnipiac poll, along with his 50% unfavorable rating, would under typical circumstances put presumed Republican frontrunner Chris Christie in a good position to defeat him in November.  But Corzine, Duffy said, has three things going for him: cash, the inherent Democratic nature of New Jersey and an ally in President Barack Obama, who remains popular in the state.

"I think he's in a unique position. Almost anybody else faces an incredibly uphill battle," she said.

Duffy analogized national Republican hopes for a win to comic strip character Charlie Brown's famous run at the football before his friend Lucy pulls it away.

"They'll go try to kick the ball again, but if they fall flat on their backs they won't be all that surprised," she said.