Steven Lonegan

In Gloucester County, two Republican Freeholder candidates aligned with gubernatorial candidate Steven Lonegan defeated slates run by two factions preparing for next week’s County Chairman battle.  Matthew Burns (3,257) and Ronald Brittin (3,023) led Larry Wallace (2,593) and Phyllis Scapellato (2,477), who are part of the anti-organization slate, and Stephen Austin (2,461) and Gloucester County GOP Chair Loran Oglesby (2,293).  Despite the local success of his ticket, Lonegan lost Gloucester County to Christopher Christie.

State Sen. Marcia Karrow (R-Raritan) was the only incumbent legislator defeated in the 2009 primary election, losing the Republican primary to Assemblyman Michael Doherty (R-Oxford) by a 1,001 votes,  52%-48% margin.  This marks a comeback of sorts for Doherty, who gave up his Assembly seat to challenge Karrow after losing a January special election convention to her by a 58%-42% margin. 

Doherty will now face Democrat Harvey Baron in a November special election to fill the remaining 26 months of the Senate seat left vacant in January when Leonard Lance left to take his seat in Congress.  Doherty, one of the Legislature's most conservative members, is the overwhelming favorite to win the seat.  He would replace Karrow as soon as the November election results are certified.

Doherty beat Karrow by 527 votes in his home county, Warren, and by 472 votes in Hunterdon, Karrow's home county and where she had the organization line.  

Because Gov. Jon Corzine is not accepting public financing for his re-election campaign, he is not legally obligated to participate in the two official debates sponsored by the New Jersey Election Law Enforcement Commission (ELEC).  That could mean a two-way debate between the Republican nominee - either Christopher Christie or Steven Lonegan - and Independent Christopher Daggett, if the former state Environmental Protection Commissioner raises the $360,000 needed to qualify for matching funds.

Refusing to debate could be an issue in the race for Governor, although it didn't seem to affect the 2008 campaign for U.S. Senate.  In that race, debates were held during the final days of the campaign.

An official debate between the candidates for Lt. Governor will not happen unless the Legislature passes a bill that requires it, and if Corzine signs it.  Some insiders think this ought to be done before the gubernatorial candidates pick their running mates, so the decision to have a debate won' be made based on whether legislators think it favors, for example, Barbara Buono or Thomas Kean, Jr.

Republicans will nominate a candidate for Governor today, with former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan, and Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham) seeking the chance to run against Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.

Corzine has three primary opponents: former Glen Ridge Mayor Carl Bergmanson, Roger Bacon, and Jeff Boss, who claims to have witnessed the U.S. government planning the 9/11 terrorist attack.

In District 23, Assemblywoman Marcia Karrow (R-Raritan) faces a GOP primary challenge from Assemblyman Michael Doherty (R-Oxford).  Three candidates are seeking two Assembly seats: incumbent John DiMaio (R-Hackettstown), Hunterdon County Freeholder Erik Peterson, and Edward Smith, Doherty's Chief of Staff.

In the Morris County-based 25th district, where Merkt is giving up his seat to run for Governor, three candidates are seeking the Republican nod for a pair of Assembly seats: incumbent Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Twp.), Morris County Freeholder Douglas Cabana,  and Anthony Bucco, Jr., the son of four-term State Sen. Anthony Bucco (R-Boonton).

Former Assemblyman Craig Stanley (D-Irvington), who lost his seat by 127 votes in the 2007 Democratic primary, is seeking a comeback in the Essex County-based 28th district.  He is challenging incumbents Ralph Caputo (D-Belleville) and Cleopatra Tucker (D-Newark).

In District 40, which includes parts of Bergen, Essex and Passaic counties, incumbents David Russo (R-Ridgewood) and Scott Rumana (R-Wayne) face primary challenges from Joseph Caruso and Anthony Rottino. 

In the 3rd district, which includes parts of Gloucester, Cumberland and Salem counties, Republicans will pick two candidates to challenge Democratic incumbents John Burzichelli (D-Paulsboro) and Celeste Riley (D-Bridgeton).

Democratic mayors face primary challenges in Edison, , Morristown,  Atlantic City, Plainfield, and East Orange. 

GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan says his own campaign polling shows him trailing Christopher Christie by just four percentage points

In a radio interview tonight, gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan called a Fairleigh Dickinson Poll that showed him trailing rival Chris Christie by 24 points in the Republican primary "retarded."

The poll was brought up by NJ 101.5 "Jersey Guys" host Casey Bartholomew, who used it to argue his point that Lonegan was unelectable.  When he heard Lonegan use the term "retarded", he checked to make sure he heard correctly.

"I said just that: retarded Fairleigh Dickinson poll," said Lonegan.

Fairleigh Dickinson pollster Peter Woolley, for his part, did not take offense at the comments.

"I have a great deal of respect for Mayor Lonegan, and not least of all because he is an alumnus of Fairleigh Dickinson University," he said.  "I wish him the best of fortune."

But on March 31, one of Lonegan's core supporters, conservative activist and blogger Michael Illions, posted a quick note on Conservatives with Attitude asking readers to be aware of the harm that can come from the derogatory use of the word "retard."

"Most people don't think of this word as hate speech, but that's exactly what it feels like to millions of people with intellectual disabilities, their families and friends," wrote Illions, who became an advocate for the disabled after his own son was diagnosed with hydrocephalus.  "Using ‘retard' as a term of derision is just as cruel and offensive as any other slur."

Lonegan's appearance on the show tonight was notable in light of Friday's tense exchange between Bartholomew and Christie.  Bartholomew told Christie that he could not trust him because he would not remove his friend and advisor, John Inglesino, from the campaign over his $3,000 a year job with state Sen. Joe Pennacchio (R-Montville), which kept Inglesino in the pension system after he lost reelection as a Morris County freeholder.

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie should win the primary tomorrow by a double-digit margin and will not have a hard time healing the Republican divide, according to four New Jersey political experts.

Montclair State Political Science Professor Brigid Harrison predicts that Christie will beat rival Steven Lonegan, the former Mayor of Bogota, by a margin of 12-15%, depending, of course, on turnout.

Patrick Murray, a pollster and political science professor at Monmouth University, gives Christie a likely win by a margin of 18% -- 58% to 40% -- assuming that about 300,000 voters show up to the polls.  A higher turnout, he said, will boost Christie's margin of victory to 22%, while a lower one will narrow it to about 13%.  He put Assemblyman Rick Merkt's (R-Mendham) likely showing at about 2%.

Ingrid Reed, who directs the Eagleton Institute's New Jersey Project, thinks that Christie will likely win with a margin "well over 10%."  But another win for Christie would be a large turnout, said Reed, because it "would signal there is momentum for the party and that the organization was organized and active."

Seton Hall Political Science Professor Joseph Marbach calls a 19% victory for Christie - 58% to 39% -- with a Republican voter turnout of about 30%, which works out to about 300,000 based on the latest available party registration statistics (whether there will be a drop off in registered Republicans since last year's presidential election remains to be seen).

Keep an eye on District 23, where Assemblyman Michael Doherty (R-Oxford) is challenging State Sen. Marcia Karrow (R-Raritan).  Karrow beat Doherty rather easily in a January special election convention after Leonard Lance left the Senate to take a seat in Congress.  But Doherty has traditionally been a strong vote getter in GOP primaries in this Hunterdon-Warren district.  Karrow has more money, the line in Hunterdon (there is no line in Warren) and the advantages of incumbency, but Doherty has an exceptionally strong base among conservatives and could benefit from a strong turnout among supporters of GOP gubernatorial candidate Steven Lonegan. 

The winner of the primary will run in a November special election to complete the remaining 26 months of Lance’s term.

In the State Assembly primary, Assemblyman John DiMaio (R-Hackettstown), who won a special election convention to replace Karrow, and Hunterdon County Freeholder Erik Peterson are running together.  They face Edward Smith, who is Doherty’s Chief of Staff.

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie won the endorsement of five daily newspapers: The Record, the Asbury Park Press, the Daily Record, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and the New York Post.  Former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan was endorsed by the Courier-Post.  Most newsworthy in this primary is who didn’t endorse anyone in the Republican primary for Governor: most of the state’s daily newspapers, including the Star-Ledger.

Six out of ten likely New Jersey Republican primary voters consider themselves pro-life, while 32% of Republicans identify themselves as pro-choice, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released this morning.  But among Republicans, 51% favor stem cell research, while 31% oppose it.

68% of GOP gubernatorial candidate Steven Lonegan's supporters say they are pro-life (and 27% are pro-choice), while Christopher Christie supporters are pro-life by a 57%-34% margin.

By a 63%-30% margin, Republicans likely to vote in tomorrow's primary election consider themselves pro gun ownership.  GOP voters favor school vouchers by a 62%-23% margin.   More than seven out of ten (72%) oppose marriage equality, while just 20% favor it. 

Among GOP primary voters, 60% call the U.S. invasion of Iraq the "right thing," while 29% say it was a mistake.  And 83% oppose closing the U.S. prison facility at Guantanamo, while 9% favor the closure.

According to the FDU survey, 91% of New Jersey Republican primary voters identify themselves as white.

Chris Christie, the former U.S. Attorney, leads ex-Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan 54%-30% in a GOP gubernatorial poll released by Fairleigh Dickinson University today

Chris Christie has a 24 point lead, 54%-30%, over Steve Lonegan in tomorrow's Republican primary for Governor, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released this morning.  Rick Merkt is at 1%

The FDU poll had a sample size of 561 likely Republican primary voters statewide, with a margin of error of +/- 4%.  It was conducted by telephone from May 26, 2009 through May 30, 2009.