Stephen Sweeney

The Senate Republican caucus is meeting at 9AM this morning in Trenton.  On the agenda: the upcoming lame duck legislative session, and the battle for Senate President between Democrats Richard Codey (D-Roseland) and Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford).  Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) said last Friday that he has not closed the door on a deal to keep Codey in power; he has said that he wants the seventeen Republican Senators to vote as a block.  Kean is expected to hear from at least six GOP Senators that a deal to re-elect Codey is not an option.  Senate Minority Whip Kevin O'Toole (R-Cedar Grove), Sweeney's unofficial emissary to the Republican caucus, is expected to oppose any effort by Republicans to interfere with the Democratic leadership contests.

Secretary of the Senate Ellen Davenport (D-Maplewood), a political ally of Senate President Richard Codey

On the most likely to be unemployed list for 2010: Secretary of the Senate Ellen Davenport.  With the likelihood that Richard Codey (D-Roseland) will not return as Senate President, it look like Davenport, a close Codey ally who served as Mayor of Maplewood and as an Essex County Freeholder, will be a casualty of Codey's leadership fight with Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford).  The job pays $81,000-a-year, and the post traditionally changes along with the leadership.  Davenport, 67, got the job after Democrats won control of the Senate in 2003.

The Assembly Clerk is Dana Burley, a 44-year-old Camden City Councilwoman.  The retirement of her political patron, Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts (D-Camden), puts her at some risk.  But unlike the Senate, there is no real change of control in the lower house.  If Essex Democrats claim the $90,000-a-year position (as Camden did when Roberts succeeded Albio Sires in 2006 and named Burley), Burley won't have a problem finding a new gig; South Jersey Democrats are ruling the world these days, and Burley is a member of that organization.

Two State Senators who have remained loyal to Richard Codey (D-Roseland) are likely nearing the end of the legislative careers, according to several Democratic insiders.  As a white man representing a district where Latinos and African Americans outnumber whites, John Girgenti (D-Hawthorne) has been at risk of losing party support for the last few years.  Assemblywoman Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) asked Passaic County Democrats to consider her for the Senate in 2007, but party leaders backed the re-election of the 62-year-old Hawthorne Democrat who has been in the Legislature since 1977.  Latino leaders have been eyeing the 35th district Senate seat as their best opportunity to double their representation in the upper house – from one to two.

Girgenti could either lose party support for another term in the Senate, or mapmakers – if Democrats were to dominate legislative redistricting – could offer him the chance run in a new district, perhaps against Senate Minority Whip Kevin O’Toole (R-Cedar Grove).

Some Democrats say the retirement of Senate President Pro-Tempore Shirley Turner (D-Lawrence) could come sooner rather than later.  If Gov. Jon Corzine wins a second term, Turner – no favorite of the front office – could be offered another post in an effort to clear a path for Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing) to go to the Senate.  Watson Coleman, popular with Democrats, appears to have gotten the short end of the stick in a legislative leadership deal that will make Sheila Oliver (D-Ewing) the next Assembly Speaker and Joseph Cryan (D-Union) the new Majority Leader.  Watson Coleman is also a contender for a cabinet post in a second Corzine administration. 

If Turner completes her turn and Watson Coleman remains in the Assembly, there is a good chance that Turner will get nudged into retirement in two years so that Watson Coleman can move up to the Senate then.

The Rev. Reginald Jackson, the Executive Director of the Black Ministers' Council of New Jersey, has endorsed Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) for Assembly Speaker, according to a Star-Ledger report.  The only other candidate in the race is Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing), who is also African American.

At a news conference to announce his support, Oliver denied that there was any deal that linked her candidacy for Speaker to the campaign of Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford) for Senate President.

"The Senate does what the Senate does and the General Assembly does what the General Assembly does. There is no trade-off," the Star-Ledger reported Oliver as saying.

And Jackson denied speculation that Oliver was a pawn in a political chess game being played by George Norcross, Stephen Adubato and other state Democratic leaders.

"We have heard rumors that she will be controlled by other folk.  The Sheila Oliver that we know will not be controlled or told what to do, but will do what is best for the citizens of New Jersey, Jackson said.

Last week, Oliver told PolitickerNJ.com that she is the "most independent person ever elected."

Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) says he has not closed the door to making a deal that could deliver seventeen Republican Senators to help re-elect Senate President Richard Codey (D-Roseland).  The problem for Kean is that his caucus is sharply divided over the race for Senate President, and it would be difficult for Kean to deliver the seventeen GOP Senators as a block for either Codey or Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford).  Sweeney already has commitments from fourteen of 23 Democratic Senators, so he really doesn't need to make a deal with Kean. 

What's more, Sweeney is believed to have at least seven votes from the Republican side.  Kean can't make a deal if more than one-third of his caucus seeks to stop him.

Sweeney's biggest threat to becoming Senate President could be the election of Republican Christopher Christie as Governor.  If Christie, as Governor-elect, wants to play in legislative leadership contests, he could make a compelling argument to Republican Senators to support him. But Christie might have little interest in making Codey, already popular with real voters from his fourteen months as Governor, the most visible Democrat in the state.  Instead, he might need to capitalize on the rift between Codey and Sweeney and the possibility that some Senators could be motivated by spite.

Newark Mayor Cory Booker needed to do some damage control yesterday after taking heat for his endorsement of Richard Codey (D-Roseland) in the race for Senate President.  Booker, at the urging of two lawyers who advise him, Elnardo Webster and Paul Fader, backed Codey after Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford) had already announced he had a majority of the Democratic Senate Caucus on his side.   That caused some Democrats close to Sweeney - especially George Norcross - to offer Booker a bit of friendly guidance.  (It's fair to assume that the advice included strategic assumptions for the 2013 Democratic gubernatorial primary.)  Booker, realizing Webster and Fader might have screwed up a bit, put out a statement late in the day acknowledging Sweeney's victory over Codey, and endorsing Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) for Speaker.  That probably made Norcross happy, but it won't be any consolation to Codey, who thought announcing a Booker endorsement a few hours earlier might be his salvation.

One of the likely casualties of the battle for the Senate Presidency will be Assemblyman John McKeon (D-West Orange), who is Richard Codey's (D-Roseland) closest ally in the Legislature.  Watch for the new leadership to punish McKeon, perhaps by taking away his chairmanship of the Assembly Environment and Solid Waste Committee.  Democrats will argue that with the new Speaker coming from Essex, some of the more prestigious chairmanships might need to go elsewhere. 

Democrats most loyal to Gov. Jon Corzine are not big fans of McKeon, who took on the role of bashing Corzine during the few months in 2004 and 2005 when Codey and Corzine might have been competitors for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination.

McKeon, the Mayor of West Orange, has been widely viewed as the heir apparent to Codey's Senate seat.  With Codey apparently about to lose his post to Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford), the new leadership might be less than enthusiastic about seeing McKeon ascend to the Senate.  Sources suggest that Democrats might be open to moving West Orange (and perhaps Roseland, if Codey runs again) out of the district during the 2011 redistricting process.

Maybe Assemblyman Michael Patrick Carroll (R-Morris Twp.) will get his wish: the conservative Republican told PolitickerNJ.com last month that he would run against Codey if mapmakers created a competitive district that is at least half Morris County,

Newark Mayor Cory Booker says that Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford) will be the next Senate President and has endorsed Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) for Assembly Speaker.

Earlier today, Richard Codey (D-Roseland) issued a statement announcing that Booker has endorsed his re-election as Senate President, along with thirteen other Democratic mayors from Essex County.  Booker offered praise of Codey's service, but acknowledged that Sweeney has the votes to win.

"For his entire career Dick Codey has been a true champion of New Jersey and the city of Newark. And for my short career as mayor he has been an honorable friend and invaluable ally. It is clear to me that the question of who will be our next senate president has been settled," Booker said in an e-mail to PolitickerNJ.com. "We are all Democrats and it is time to come together and work on the important issues facing our state and each individual municipality and also ensure that Governor Jon Corzine is re-elected. I look forward to working with Senator Sweeney in his new role and am confident that he too will be a champion of New Jersey and the city of Newark."

Booker made it clear that he is backing Oliver, an ally of Newark Democratic leader Stephen Adubato, Sr., for Speaker.

"What remains unsettled is the question of who will be the Assembly Speaker. I have no vote in this matter, but to the degree that I am able I will be a strong advocate for Sheila Oliver," Booker said.  "Her ascendancy to this position will not only be historic as the first African American to hold this seat but much more importantly, she is a qualified public servant who will provide critical leadership for our state during these challenging times.

Two Hudson County Democrats say they will support Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) for Assembly Speaker.  That brings Oliver's hard count up to 20 votes.

Ruben Ramos (D-Hoboken) and Caridad Rodriguez (D-West New York) say that Oliver would be a groundbreaking choice who would bring passion and fresh perspective to state government.

"This is an exciting opportunity for the state of New Jersey to have someone of Sheila Oliver's background and vision in this important position," Ramos said. "She has been a champion for the average person who struggles every day and needs a strong advocate speaking for them in Trenton. It would be hard to imagine a better person to be our Speaker."

Union County's four Democratic Assembly members formally backed Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) for speaker today, including Democratic State Chairman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), who was in the running for the top spot.    

The move solidifies the a North-South Jersey deal connected to the senate leadership contest, where Senate Majority Leader Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford) yesterday announced that he had the votes to topple Senate President Dick Codey (D-Roseland).

Cryan is said to be the leading contender for Majority Leader.

In addition to Cryan, who is also the state Democratic chairman, Assemblywomen Annette Quijano (D-Elizabeth), Linda Stender (D-Fanwood) and Assembly Speaker Pro Tempore Gerald Green (D-Plainfield) said, through a statement released by Union County Democratic Chair Charlotte DeFilippo, that they would back Oliver.