Scott Garrett

The Pindell Report, Politicker.com's political and campaign forecast, has released its final projections for Election Day. Using polling, historical and demographic trends, tracking campaign visits and spending, The Pindell Report ranks races in terms of their competitiveness and their status as either a toss-up or leaning or likely voting in a particular way.

In New Jersey, The Pindell Report's final breakdown is as follows:

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It’s a war of endorsements in the 5th District today.

U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett’s (R-Wantage) campaign just rolled out its second big name election eve endorsement: publishing tycoon Steve Forbes.

Forbes, a New Jersey native, kept his endorsement brief.

“I’ve known Scott for years. He’s a fiscal conservative who puts taxpayers before big government,” he said in a statement. “Congress needs more common-sense leaders like him.”

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Attention commuters: make sure there’s room in your pockets for plenty of campaign literature, because the Hoboken train station is going to be a hotbed of political activity on this election eve.

As previously reported, Senate President Dick Codey will be at the station during the evening rush to campaign for 5th District Democratic congressional candidate Dennis Shulman.  Now U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) has decided to join up as well.

And while the three Democrats press their case, Shulman’s rival, U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) is also scheduled to be at Hoboken Terminal tonight to campaign for reelection. 

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Not to be outdone by New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s endorsement of Democrat Dennis Shulman, U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) today announced the support of Bloomberg’s predecessor, former Republican mayor and presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani.

And while Bloomberg’s endorsement of Shulman centered mostly around the gun control issue, Giuliani said he was backing Garrett because of his fiscal conservatism.

"I am pleased to endorse Scott Garrett today because we share the same fiscally conservative principles,” said Giuliani in a statement. Read More >

The campaign of 5th District Congressional candidate Dennis Shulman is bringing in state Senate President Richard Codey (D-Essex) to campaign on Monday during evening rush hour in Hoboken.

Codey and Shulman will work the platforms of those trains bound for 5th District destinations, according to Shulman spokesman Jeffrey Hauser.

"NJ-5 lacks a lot of the prototypical retail opportunities, that's why we're big on football games, soccer tourneys and Halloween parades," Hauser said.

Shulman is running against U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage).

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JERSEY CITY – He stood with Sen. Barack Obama (D-Il.) before anyone else in the New Jersey Congressional delegation, and for that a crowd of Obama backers gave him his props here today when U.S. Rep. Steve Rothman (D-Fairlawn) climbed onto the stage.

“Not only will an Obama presidency change the world,” Rothman argued. “It will change the way Americans see each other.”

The congressman soaked up the cheers.

He won’t be here with his fellow New Jerseyans come Tuesday night.

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In a strongly worded editorial, The (Bergen) Record endorsed blind Rabbi Dennis Shulman in his bid to unseat three-term GOP U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett.

"Scott Garrett is afraid. And he wants voters to be afraid. But the only thing voters should fear is Garrett's reelection to the House of Representatives," the editorial said. "The race in the 5th District is less about who is challenging Garrett and more about what Garrett is challenging. He is challenging the basic tenets of common decency. The high-minded, fiscal conservative has resorted to the lowest form of campaigning. In a post-Sept. 11 world, Garrett is shouting 'terrorist' in a crowded room. The congressman has been running television ads, in addition to sending out a direct-mail campaign piece, that link Shulman to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Garrett wants voters to believe that Shulman, a rabbi, would sell out Israel. It is beyond the pale."

Democrat Frank Lautenberg also won The Record's endorsement in his bid for a fifth term in the U.S. Senate. This is a pickup for Lautenberg: in 2002, The Record endorsed Ted Glick, the Green Party candidate. "Six years ago, we wrote that Frank Lautenberg did not 'have his good stuff' when he reentered politics to run for a fourth term in the U.S. Senate. Six years later, a clearly energized Lautenberg has the right stuff to serve six more years."

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There's no question that 5th District congressional candidate Dennis Shulman is benefiting from a national environment that favors Democrats.  But in his native Bergen County, which holds about 65% of the district's voters, he's faced with what could be a less hospitable environment for his party.

Last month, Bergen County Democratic Chairman Joseph Ferriero was indicted on eight corruption counts.  So was the less-known but extremely influential general counsel of the party, Dennis Oury.  The investigation continues, with subpoenas continuing to land in towns and agencies across the county, and Republicans think they actually have a shot at picking up at least one freeholder seat on the all-Democratic board.

Ferriero did endorse Shulman in the primary against attorney Camille Abate, which led to him getting the coveted organization line.  But while the Democratic brand in Bergen may be tarnished, Shulman may be lucky to not be tied too closely with it.  In fact, he said it's never been raised once to him by a constituent on the campaign trail.

"Not a single person I've spoken to throughout the district, when I go to the fairs or football games... have ever referred to it. My race is a national race with national issues," he said. Read More >

If Republicans Scott Garrett, Christopher Myers and Leonard Lance win hotly contested House races next week, it is unlikely that Democrats would invest heavily in these traditionally GOP districts again in 2010.  But Democratic victories would make these districts battlegrounds in the 2010 mid-term elections.

If Garrett survives -- Politicker.com's The Pindell Report has the seat as Leans Republican -- he'll have a firm lock on the 5th district seat until at least 2012, when mapmakers draw new congressional districts.  But if blind Rabbi Dennis Shulman upsets Garrett, he'd immediately become one of the nation's most vulnerbale Democratic Congressmen. There is already talk among some Bergen County Republicans that Assemblyman David Russo would enter the race to challenge Shulman in 2010.  Russo sought the seat six years ago when Marge Roukema retired and lost to Garrett 45%-24% after splitting the Bergen GOP vote with State Sen. Gerald Cardinale.

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Basing his endorsement mainly on gun control issues, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg endorsed Dennis Shulman for Congress against U.S. Rep. Scott Garrett (R-Wantage) in the 5th Congressional District.

“I’m endorsing Dennis Shulman because I’m impressed by his pragmatic, sensible approach to the tough issues, including how we strengthen the economy and how we keep illegal guns out of the hands of criminals,” said Bloomberg in his opening statement to a twenty minute conference call.

But don’t expect Bloomberg to cross the river for Shulman, a blind rabbi/psychologist any time soon. Nor will Bloomberg film any commercials for Shulman like he already has for U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays (R-Conn.). The Mayor downplayed the possibility that he would do any more to campaign for Shulman, and said he had not written him a check.

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