Rush Holt

BAYSHORE AREA (MONMOUTH COUNTY, NJ): Middletown Democratic Chairman Joe Caliendo said he is in full support of Governor Jon Corzine and Rep. Rush Holt, D-NJ, with regard to their stands on the proposed port operations deal being proposed by the Bush Administration. In addition, Union Beach Democratic Chairman Kenneth Connors also lent his voice in support of the governor and Holt.

Congressman Frank Pallone will announce today that he will not be a candidate for U.S. Senate in 2006, and will endorse Bob Menendez for the Democratic nomination. Pallone joins Congressmen Rob Andrews and Rush Holt in saying that he will not challenge Menendez, who has now effectively cleared the field.

Congressman Rush Holt will not seek the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senator in 2006, and will back Bob Menendez for the seat. "My interest in the Senate is rooted in my belief that New Jersey will be best served by someone who stands up for people without privilege, who values civil liberties, who is committed to a responsible foreign policy, and who will not let principle bend to expediency," Holt said. "Last week, I met with Bob Menendez to talk about several legislative issues and the preservation of Jon Corzine's progressive legacy in the Senate. I have a great deal of respect for Bob's abilities, and our conversation about issues important to our state has led me to the conclusion that Jon Corzine made a good decision. I therefore do not intend to challenge Bob in a primary for the Senate." Holt is expected to seek re-election to a fifth term in the House next year.

One sign that the next United States Senator from New Jersey will not be Frank Pallone: Governor-elect Jon Corzine has not spoken to Pallone since late last week, when the Monmouth County Congressman got the impression that Bob Menendez was the leading candidate.

Another sign: the Asbury Park Press, which had two horses in the race (Pallone and Rush Holt both represent parts of Monmouth counties) endorsed Bill Bradley for the seat. Of the newspapers that endorsed in the 2005 Senate race, only the APP declined to back their local Congressmen. The Courier-Post and Philadelphia Inquirer supported Rob Andrews, and the Trenton Times endorsed Holt.

If Jon Corzine's U.S. Senate appointment creates a vacancy in the U.S. House of Representatives, look for a Special Election Primary on March 28 and a Special Election on May 16. Several lawyers familiar with Title 19 say that the state election law is somewhat ambiguous, but it appears Corzine, as Governor, has the option of bypassing the Special Election -- a system used in most other states -- and leaving the seat vacant until a November Special Election, on the same day as the General Election.

New Jersey has not had a Special Election for Congress since 1950. House seats vacated when William Cahill (in January 1970) and James Florio (in January 1990) remained vacant until the November General Election, as did the vacancies caused by the deaths of Edwin Forsythe (in March 1984) and James Howard (in March 1988). Corzine will need to decide whether the right of 647,000 citizens to have representation in Congress for ten months is worth the expense of two additional elections. Corzine's decision could be based on where he chooses to create a vacancy.

If he appoints Robert Menendez to the U.S. Senate, there is a clear front runner for his 13th district House seat: outgoing Assembly Speaker Albio Sires. Corzine has already made a personal contribution to Sires' federal campaign account, and the simplicity of the transition -- both in a primary and general -- could make issuing a writ of special election more palatable.

In other districts, the line of succession is murkier. If he sends Rob Andrews to the Senate, South Jersey Democrats will need to decide whether the seat goes to State Senator Stephen Sweeney or to Assembly Budget Committee Chairman Louis Greenwald. The two could fight it out in a primary, but Camden Democrats tend to handle family fights like these indoors, without the unpleasanries of an election. (Camden Democrats haven't had a rip roaring primary since 1979.) Still, Andrews has hinted that he's either running for the Senate or nothing; that might mean Democrats will have to pick between Sweeney and Greenwald anyway. Republicans can't compete in this district.

There is also no clear successor to Frank Pallone. The Democratic farm system is much stronger in the Middlesex County portion of the district, but Monmouth County Democrats will be anxious to hold the seat. Monmouth has the larger share of the sixth district population, but there are more Democratic primary voters in Middlesex -- which could make the line in Plainfield (Union County) a critical factor in choosing a candidate. Middlesex County has not had a Congressman since 1992, when a new map placing incumbents Pallone and Bernard Dwyer in the same district forced Dwyer's retirement. Possible Middlesex candidates include: State Senators Barbara Buono and Robert Smith (who challenged Pallone in the 1992 primary and last year divested a federal campaign account worth more than $100,000), and Assemblyman John Wisniewski. In Monmouth, Democrats could run Maggie Moran, a Democratic strategist who served as State Director of Corzine's Senate office; Belmar Mayor Kenneth Pringle or Long Branch Mayor Adam Schneider -- or they could import State Senator Ellen Karcher or Assemblyman Michael Panter, whose legislative district includes parts of the 6th C.D. Karcher grew up in Sayreville, where her father and grandfather served in the State Assembly. Assmeblyman Upendra Chivukula, who lives in the one Somerset County town in this district, wants the seat, but his endorsement of Menendez in the Senate race limits his chances. This a Democrat-leaning district (Pallone won 69% in 2004, John Kerry won 57%); Monmouth County Sheriff Joseph Oxley might be the Republican candidate.

If Corzine decides the next U.S. Senator is Rush Holt, the new Governor might be more hesistant to call a Special Election -- Holt is safe in the 12th district, but it is potentially more competitive (Kerry won 54% in 2004, his lowest percentage in any Democratic House district) if he is not the candidate. Democrats would have to pick between a huge field of potential candidates, including: Karcher and Panter from Monmouth; Trenton Mayor Douglas Palmer, Democratic State Chairwoman (and incoming Assembly Majority Leader) Bonnie Watson Coleman, and Assemblyman Reed Gusciora in Mercer; Lambertville Mayor David Del Vecchio (who ran a strong campaign for this seat in 1996), the Hunterdon County Democratic Chairman; and Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein from Middlesex. The race would not be a slam-dunk for Democrats, if the GOP could find the right candidate, and if the national political environment improves for them. Possible Republican candidates include two former Congressmen, Richard Zimmer and Michael Pappas. Zimmer gave up the seat in 1996 to run for U.S. Senate and was replaced by Pappas, who lost to Holt in 1998. Zimmer held Holt to a 500-vote margin in 2000. Zimmer practics law in Washington, and Pappas is currently the Regional Adminisrator for the Small Business Administration in New York. Other contenders include: State Senator Joseph Kyrillos, the ex-GOP State Chairman who ran against Pallone in 1992, or former State Senators Richard LaRossa and Jack Sinagra. Republicans could also run a candidate with the ability to self-fund their race, like millionaire Steve Distler of Princeton or Tammy Murphy of Rumson, whose husband was Corzine's partner at Goldman Sachs. One interesting candidate: Douglas Forrester, whose high name I.D. would help in a Special Election, if he has another $5 million available for one more race.

Rush Holt is the top choice for New Jersey's United States Senate seat, according to an online poll conducted by New Jersey for Democracy, the grass roots organization started by supporters of Howard Dean's 2004 presidential campaign. Holt received 26%, followed by Frank Pallone (15%), Bob Menendez (10%), Rob Andrews (6%), Nia Gill (5%) and Loretta Weinberg (3%). The first choice was Richard Codey, who received 29%; the poll was conducted before Codey withdrew his name from consideration last week.

Holt also received the first newspaper endorsement of the Senate campaign, where only one vote really counts: the Trenton Times is asking Jon Corzine to send the four-term Congressman to the U.S. Senate. "Unlike his three colleagues, Rep. Holt hasn't held news conferences on behalf of his candidacy, put out news releases, encouraged letter-writing drives, formed a U.S. Senate Web site, boasted of a large campaign treasury nor released statements lauding Sen. Corzine," the editorial stated. "In our view, the governor-elect could find no better qualified individual for the Senate seat than Rush Holt. His integrity and reputation are unquestioned. Smart and hard-working, he takes a studious approach to public policy, examining pros and cons of issues with the intensity he brought to the problems of nuclear fusion during his days as assistant director of the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory.

On page 823 of his book My Life, former President Bill Clinton says: " In New Jersey, a physics professor named Rush Holt was behind by 20% ten days before the election. He pushed one TV ad highlighting his opposition to impeachment, and won a seat no Democrat had held in a century." While Holt's victory over freshman Republican Congressman Michael Pappas was indeed stunning, Clinton wasn't technically correct about the seat being held by the GOP for a hundred years. Democrat Helen Meyner, the husband of former Governor Robert Meyner and a cousin of former Democratic presidential candidate Adlai Stevenson, won in 1974 when she ousted one-term incumbent Joseph Maraziti in the Watergate landslide. Meyner held the seat in 1976, narrowly beating William Schluter, but lost her 1978 re-election campaign against James Courter. Courter left Congress in 1990 and was replaced by Republican Richard Zimmer, who was succeeded by Pappas when he ran for U.S. Senate in 1996. Clinton seems to have a genuine affinity for Holt; Clinton and Holt, both Southerners, were college professors who lost their first bids for public office. Holt's father, Rush Dew Holt, served as a United States Senator from West Virginia from 1935 (he was elected at age 29 and had to wait three months until he turned thirty) to 1941.

Several Republican leaders are saying that Bill Spadea, the Republican nominee for Congress against Rush Holt in 2004, is mulling a bid for the United States Senate next year. The former Marine and past College Republican National Chairman could wind up as the conservative primary rival State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr. has been trying so hard to avoid. Spadea was expected to run again for the 12th district seat (he won 40% last year), but abruptly withdrew from the race last month. He is also considered a possible candidate for Mercer County Executive in 2007.