Rush Holt

Frank Lautenberg is running for re-election, so the question of contested primaries for open House seats may be a moot issue.  But if the 83-year-old U.S. Senator changes his mind, its possible that a number of Democratic Congressmen could take a shot – perhaps their final shot – at a seat in the United States Senate.

Since most New Jersey congressional districts are not necessarily competitive, it could be up to Democratic primary voters (if it even gets that far) to decide who the next Congressman would be.  And in each district, there is no shortage of people who would be interested in going to Congress.

Bill Spadea, a conservative activist and the Republican candidate for Congress against Rush Holt in 2004, will serve on Michael Doherty's U.S. Senate Exploratory Commitee.  Spadea was an early supporter of Thomas Kean, Jr. in the 2006 Senate race.

 House Democratic Caucus Photo

It’s been a busy year for Rush Holt, the “rocket scientist” representative from the 12th district. Nancy Pelosi recently named him Chairman of the new House Intelligence Panel, and now, after four years of trying, Holt is finally going to get a vote for one of his pet bills, the Voter Confidence and Increased Accessibility Act.

During the 2006 campaign, Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee regularly asked New Jersey Republicans to return campaign contributions from individuals or political action committees connected to lobbyist Jack Abramoff. Any chance they will call on Congressmen Frank Pallone and Rush Holt to return donations from developer Jack Westlake, a business partner of ex-Senate President John Lynch, who is expected to be sentenced today? Westlake also contributed heavily to Robert Menendez's Senate and House campaigns, and to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee when Jon Corzine served as Chairman.

Editor's note: Holt contributed $3,000 to Boys & Girls Club of Trenton and CASA (Court Appointed Special Advocates for Children) in October 2006, soon after allegations against Westlake and Jack Morris became public. Pallone has not returned $7,800 from Westlake.

Five of New Jersey's six Democratic Congressmen are in line for a Subcommittee Chairmanship if their party wins control of the U.S. House of Representatives in November:

Rob Andrews: Education and Workforce Subcommittee on Employer/Employee Relations
Frank Pallone: Resources Subcommittee on Fisheries, Wildlife and Oceans
Bill Pascrell: Homeland Security Subcommittee on Emergency Preparedness, Science and Technology
Donald Payne: International Relations Subcommittee on Africa, Global Human Rights and International Operations
Rush Holt: Intelligence Subcommittee on Intelligence Policy

The sixth Democrat is Steven Rothman, who serves on the powerful House Appropriations Committee.

Seniority does not necessarily determine Subcommittee Chairmanships. For example, Pallone also has considerable seniority on the House Energy and Commerce Committee and could could compete for a Subcommittee Chairmanship there.

Christopher Smith and Rush Holt are safe bets for re-election in 2006, and these two Congressmen -- who were initially given little chance to win -- overcame tough campaigns to win a second term. Thanks to some hard work and favorable treatment during redistricting, Smith and Holt have become House veterans.

It was assumed that Smith was simply a fluke. He was a neophyte who won a seat in Congress at age 27 against an incumbent under indictment. He defeated 13-term incumbent Frank Thompson, Jr., the Chairman of the House Administration Committee, by a 57%-41% margin and with just $79,000.

Smith's opponent was the best Democrats had to offer: Joseph Merlino, a former State Senate President and one of Trenton's most prolific vote getters. Richard Zimmer, the former Congressman, was the clear favorite to win back his old House seat against Holt, who had ousted Zimmer's Republican successor in 1998.

Both Smith and Holt won upset victories against incumbents weakened by national political scandals. For Smith, it was the Abscam scandal, when Thomspon was videotaped accepting bribes from FBI agents posing as Arab sheiks in a sting operation; for Holt, it was the impeachment of President Bill Clinton and the brief rendition of Twinkle, Twinkle Kenneth Starr sung on the House floor by Michael Pappas that ended the Republican's political career after just a single term.

Smith and Holt were political newcomers who lost congressional races before winning the second time around. Smith worked for a family sporting goods business and won 37% against Thompson in 1978. Holt directed the Plasma Lab at Princeton University and lost the Democratic primary for an open seat in 1996.

The districts of both Congressmen favored their opponents. In 1980, Smith was the only Republican to unseat a Democratic incumbent in a congressional district where Jimmy Carter outpolled Ronald Reagan. Two years later, prior to the existence of the bi-partisan Congressional Apportionment Commission, the Democratic legislature approved a redistricting plan that made the district even less favorable to Smith. Merlino was said to have drawn the map himself. The 12th district was heavily Republican, and Zimmer won it with ease three times.

Smith and Holt were both targeted for defeat by the party in control of Congress seeking to protect their majority. Both challengers had higher name identification than the incumbents. Merlino had sought the Democratic nomination for Governor in 1981, and Zimmer ran for the U.S. Senate in 1996.

Both Smith and Holt had ideologies that were not perfectly in sync with their districts. Smith was a cultural conservative in a liberal district; Holt was a liberal representing an fiscally conservative region of the state that provided pluralities to moderate Republican statewide candidates.

From their first day in Congress, Smith and Holt knew they had a tenuous hold on their congressional seats. They both worked hard, seemingly non-stop, in an effort to appeal to their constituents.

As congressional candidates, Merlino and Zimmer proved disappointing. Smith portrayed Merlino as an old-time, cigar-smoking political boss, an image that was enhanced when Merlino called Smith "Kid" in the presence of reporters. Holt painted Zimmer as a Newt Gingrich Republican. Smith and Holt exceeded the expectations of the political experts.

Here's what Hotline, the Washington-based news organization that monitors key campaigns across the country, has to say about the U.S. Senate race between Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican Thomas Kean, Jr. :

"The largest mover this month is New Jersey. Frankly, we've had this race too low because we've refused to buy into the GOP hype yet again in this state. But it's hard to ignore all the polling that shows Kean and Menendez even. No other Democratic incumbent is that close with their likely GOP foe. Kean's got a pesky primary to deal with, but once that's done, we'll get a better sense of how he will engage Menendez."
Hotline ranks the race as #7 out of 33 nationally.

Republicans have picked former Helmetta Council President Joseph Sinagra to run for Congress against four-term Democrat Rush Holt in the 12th district.

With the filing deadline less than one week away, the GOP has still not found a candidate to run against three-term Democratic Congressman Rush Holt. Republican County Conventions were held in Middlesex on Saturday and Mercer on Monday without selecting a candidate, but party leaders say they hope to find someone in time to appear at the Monmouth convention this weekend. Holt won the seat in a surprise upset against freshman GOP Congressman Michael Pappas in 1998 and was re-elected in 2000 by just 551 votes against former Congressman Richard Zimmer. After redistricting made the district far more Democratic-friendly, Holt won 62% against a much-heralded Republican challenger, former Secretary of State DeForest "Buster" Soaries in 2002, and 60% in 2004 against former College Republican National Chairman Bill Spadea.

U.S. Senate candidate Tom Kean, Jr. announced today that Bill Spadea, who won 40% of the vote in his 2004 congressional race against Rush Holt in a district that includes a stretch of Route 1, "will join the fight to stop the seemingly endless cycle of tax increases from Democratic politicians as one of his official campaign surrogates."