Rudy Giuliani

His record as New York mayor is enough to convince this ice cream parlor reveler.

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At a local Starbucks, Christine says she's going to vote for the Arizona senator.

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An elevator-full of Rudy Giuliani supporters looked at the ceiling when confronted with today’s Monmouth University/Gannett poll numbers that show the former New York mayor in a statistical dead heat with Arizona Sen. John McCain in the 2008 GOP presidential primary.

They were riding down from the fourth floor of the Toms River law office of Ocean County Republican Chairman George Gilmore, who also serves as state chairman of Giuliani’s campaign in New Jersey.

Gilmore wasn’t in town today.

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The Monmouth University/Gannet New Jersey poll released this morning seems to have turned the conventional wisdom of New Jersey presidential politics on its head, especially on the Republican side, where John McCain has pulled even with Rudy Giuliani. But none of the state’s most prominent presidential candidate backers expressed much surprise today.

The most shocking number in the poll put John McCain leading 29-25% -- within the 4.5% margin of error. Just one month ago, according to a Quinnipiac poll, Giuliani had a 22 point lead over McCain, while three months ago that lead was 36 points. And in a Bergen Record poll published Sunday, Giuliani led McCain by 16 points.

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John McCain leads Rudy Giuliani 29%-25% among likely Republican primary voters – a statistical dead heat – in a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning. Mike Huckabee follows in a distant third place with 11%, followed by Mitt Romney at 9%, Fred Thompson at 5%, and Ron Paul at 4%.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama by twelve percentage points – 42%-30%, among Democratic likely voters surveyed. John Edwards is at 9%, with Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel barely a blip on the screen.

“Senator Obama’s early win in Iowa has swung some previously undecided New Jersey voters into his camp, but Senator Clinton’s support among rank and file Democrats here remains strong,” commented Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “It appears that Mayor Giuliani’s strategy to ignore the early states may have taken him off the radar screen here. Many of his supporters have now moved to Senator McCain, which, ideologically, is probably an easy switch for New Jersey Republicans. Without a major win between now and Super Tuesday, Giuliani may have to spend precious resources in New Jersey simply to remind voters that he’s still in the running.”

The poll also asked all registered voters in the state – including those not voting in the upcoming February 5th primary – whether selecting a candidate who can bring about needed change or someone who has the right experience is more important to them in this year’s race for the White House. Overall, New Jersey voters are split – 39% are looking for change and 37% prefer experience. Another 18% volunteer that they value both qualities equally and 6% have no opinion. Democrats (41%) and independents (51%) are more likely to value change while Republicans tend to go for experience (53%). Read More >

Texas Congressman Ron Paul continues to exceed expectations in the early presidential contests, holding his own with Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson in Iowa and New Hampshire.  Paul has an organization in New Jersey, albeit a small one, led by Assemblyman Michael Doherty, former gubernatorial candidate (and possible '08 U.S. Senate candidate) Murray Sabrin, and '04 congressional candidate George Ajjan.  This is the Libertarian wing of the New Jersey GOP, and insiders have always viewed that as a significant, though largely unorganized, block of voters.

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Could New Jersey Republicans have two presidential primaries in 2008?  In a very outside the box way, the answer is yes --  although not likely.

Remember, when the state GOP approved the winner-take-all primary, they agreed to wait until June to elect the delegates – who would be bound (under party rules) to vote for the winner of the February 5 New Jersey primary on the first ballot.  That means party bigwigs could still get to the convention as delegates, even if they picked the wrong horse early on. 

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Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani tomorrow will debut a television ad on Fox News that refocuses the campaign narrative on Sept. 11, 2001.

The former New York mayor remains New Jersey's Republican frontrunner in the race for president, with 38% support among GOP voters, or 26% more than the number two man in the Republican field here, Sen. John McCain, according to a Dec. 13th Quinnipiac University poll.

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Republicans not endorsing former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani fretted yesterday that the GOP’s balloting procedure would unfairly impact their own presidential candidates, and fought an email war with the state party chairmen to try to get him to intervene.

What made the matter worse for some proud party members was having to watch the Democratic State Committee relinquish its prior commitment to giving establishment candidate Sen. Hillary Clinton the line A position virtually statewide.

They argued that while Republicans were essentially handing the ballot pole position to Giuliani, the Clinton-centric Democratic leadership was mercifully loosening its stranglehold on the process to allow rival campaigns to get an equal shot at the line.

"Why is it that the New Jersey GOP isn't following the Democratic State Committee’s lead in holding an open draw for presidential candidates?" Republican counsel Brian Nelson asked State Committee Chairman Tom Wilson. "Why are the Republicans still following the process the Democrats are abandoning?"

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