Ronald Reagan

The outcome of the 2009 campaign for Governor of New Jersey is not historically significant to Barack Obama's presidency. It is almost twice as likely that New Jerseyans elect a governor who is not a member of the president's party.  Indeed, the party of the incumbent president is 15-26 in New Jersey gubernatorial races since a Democrat won in Abraham Lincoln's mid-term election.

The last five gubernatorial elections went that way: Republicans lost in 1989 (George H.W. Bush), 2001 and 2005 (George W. Bush), and Democrats lost in 1993 and 1997 (Bill Clinton). But in the seven contests before that, the party of the sitting president went 6-1: Republicans won in 1969 (Richard Nixon), 1981, and 1985 (Ronald Reagan), and Democrats won in 1961 (John Kennedy), 1965 (Lyndon Johnson), and 1977 (Jimmy Carter); Republicans lost in 1973, after the incumbent was defeated in the primary and in an election that was held under the backdrop of the Watergate scandal.

None those twelve campaigns influenced the outcomes of the next presidential campaign, either nationally or in pursuit of New Jersey's electoral votes - although the 1973 results were a harbinger of the 1974 Democratic landslide.  By 1976, New Jersey was supporting a Republican presidential candidate.

Democrats won both gubernatorial elections held during Dwight Eisenhower's presidency, and Republicans won both governors' races held while Harry Truman was president.  During the four campaigns for governor that occurred during Franklin Roosevelt's tenure in the White House, Democrats won two (1937 and 1940) and lost two (1934 and 1943).  Eisenhower carried New Jersey twice, and Roosevelt won the state four times.

A poll of New Jersey voters taken three weeks before the 1968 presidential election had independent George Wallace with 14% of the vote, with Richard Nixon leading Hubert Humphrey by a 43%-38% margin.  Both parties agreed that Wallace was taking more votes from the Democrats than the Republicans. 

A Gallup poll conducted outside two New Jersey auto plants had Wallace getting 73% of the vote among 500 members of the United Auto Workers Union.  "Listen, the men in the plants want to zap the Negros by voting for Wallace.  It's that simple.  And I don't see how anyone can stop them," a UAW official told the New York Times in a quote that 41 years later appears rather incredible.

On Election Day, Nixon carried New Jersey by 61,261 votes, 46%-44%.  Wallace took 9%, less than where he was polling, receiving 262,187 votes.

Barack Obama's visit to New Jersey marks the fourth time a President has come to campaign for the re-election of an incumbent Governor. 

Bill Clinton stumped for Jim Florio in 1993, Ronald Reagan for Thomas Kean in 1985, and Jimmy Carter for Brendan Byrne in 1977.  Lyndon Johnson did not visit New Jersey when Richard Hughes ran for re-election in 1965, although the First Lady did join Hughes for a tour of a Head Start center in Newark.  And Richard Nixon did not come to New Jersey in support of William Cahill, who lost the Republican primary to a White House ally, U.S. Rep. Charles Sandman.

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Former Gov. Tom Kean, endorsing John McCain for President before the New Hampshire GOP primary last year. Kean also endorsed State Sen. Bob Martin in a 2003 primary against Jay Webber.

As he endorsed Christopher Christie for the 2009 GOP gubernatorial nomination on Wednesday, former Governor Thomas Kean, Sr. reminded reporters that the only other time he involved himself in a Republican Primary was when his son ran for the U.S. Senate three years ago.   That's not completely accurate.  During his second term as Governor, Kean went to Hudson County to endorse Albio Sires, a Republican activist from West New York who had been recruited by state Republicans to challenge U.S. Rep. Frank Guarini (D-Jersey City) in 1986.  Sires was facing a primary challenge from one of two Republicans on the Hudson County Board of Freeholders.

At the time, Republicans believed they were looking at a possible political realignment in Hudson County.  They had won two Freeholder seats in 1984 and four Assembly seats in 1985.  Ronald Reagan carried Hudson in 1984, and Kean won every town in the county when he ran for re-election in 1985.  The GOP was playing heavily in non-partisan municipal races that year, and was counting on electing a Republican Mayor of Union City, where Assemblyman Ronald Dario (R-Union City) was heading a local ticket - financed by the GOP - that included a young lawyer named Robert Menendez.

Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-Morris Plains)

MOUNTAIN LAKES – Chris Christie’s two-day bus tour comes to an end in his home county of Morris, and if there are any hard feelings from past primary campaigns, they’re heavily layered over with food and drink and some early and undeniable GOP adrenaline in the banquet hall here at the Zeris Inn.

“Phenomenal,” deadpans Steve Lonegan campaign spokesman Rick Shaftan when told of the overflow crowd come to pay homage to the local boy made good. 

“I hope there were 1,000 people there – and plenty of booze,” adds the anti-GOP establishment Shaftan. “Meanwhile, we were out there pounding on doors and organizing.”

Although no one reports seeing Morris County Freeholder John Murphy among Christie’s Republican ranks – the man who unseated Christie in their bitter 1997 contest – the place is jammed with recognizable faces, including state Sen. Anthony Bucco (R-Morris), Assembly Minority Leader Alex DeCroce (R-Parsippany), state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio (R-Morris), Assemblyman Jay Webber (R-Morris Plains), Freeholder Director Gene Feyl, Freeholder Jack Schrier, Freeholder Margaret Nordstrom, Freeholder Doug Cabana, Clerk Jane Bramhall and others.

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I voted for George Bush in 2000 primarily because he claimed America should have a "humble" foreign policy.  In the debates with Al Gore he spoke about America being an example to the rest of the world rather than being a great power that would impose its values on other peoples.  Also, during the campaign George Bush sounded as good as Ronald Reagan on the need to reduce the size and scope of the federal government.

When we are attacked on September 11, 2001 and it soon became clear who was responsible for the hijacking of the planes that crashed into the Twin Towers and the Pentagon, Americans rallied behind President Bush to go after Bin Laden and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan.  However, by 2002 the Bush administration already was deviating from the 2000 campaign rhetoric of limited government.  And it got worse for the American people in 2003 and 2004.  The Bush invasion of Iraq, a country that was not a threat to the American people, was the last straw for limited government Republicans.  Suffice it to say, by the time President Bush was seeking reelection against John Kerry in 2004, his neoconservative policies were anathema to Republicans like me who could not vote for him and support his big government agenda. 

A bottomed-out President George W. Bush and losses in New Jersey presidential elections extending to the late 1980s invariably prompt Republicans to designate the Reagan era as a modern touchstone for their party.

The fact that he won here in back-to-back elections still sparks the GOP to pepper their fighting words with Reagan invocations, evidenced by McCain surrogates specifically targeting “Reagan Democrats” at the opening of their headquarters in Woodbridge this summer.

The Gipper remains the man among GOP, going up to the top of their ticket, where Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) repeatedly refers to Reagan as his hero and Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin hits a raise the roof crescendo every time she utters the late president’s name on the stump.

As Barack Obama hovers around the 60% mark in New Jersey, Democrats could be the beneficiary of some significant coattails. While Democrats are already favored in two key congressional races where Republican incumbents are retiring, an Obama landslide could offer coattails in several other competitive races: in Bergen County, where County Clerk Kathleen Donovan is seeking a fifth term, and where Democrats are defending three Freeholder seats following the indictment of County Chairman Joseph Ferriero; in Monmouth County, where Democrats need to win one Freeholder seat to win majority control; in Somerset County, where Democrats now have an edge in voter registration for the first time in state history; in races for County Clerk and Freeholder in Burlington County; in races for Atlantic County Sheriff and Freeholder; and in Freeholder contests in Cumberland and Salem counties.

Despite major endorsements from prominent Democrats like former New Jersey Secretary of State Joan Haberle and her daughter, Dawn, and support from Alfredo Gutierrez, the owner of Xtra Supermarket in Newark, John McCain has fallen far behind Barack Obama in the race for New Jersey's fifteen electoral votes.  A Quinnipiac University poll released this morning has Obama with a 23-point lead, 59%-36%, while a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll shows similar numbers: Obama 55%, McCain 38%.

Would Ronald Reagan, the former movie actor who had been Governor of California for just two years, have beaten Hubert Humphrey in the 1968 presidential election – if Republicans had nominated him?   The Reagan of the late 1960’s was perceived differently than he was when he was elected President in 1980 – he was viewed as Barry Goldwater’s guy, a conservative that was not necessarily in line with the Clifford Case wing of the New Jersey GOP.  In 1969, Reagan came to Millburn to headline a fundraiser for GOP gubernatorial candidate William Cahill on the same day the campaign announced key Democratic endorsements in Hudson County.  Cahill made only a brief appearance at the Reagan event, and headed instead for Democrats for Cahill events in North Bergen and Jersey.  The endorsements overshadowed Reagan’s visit.