Robert Torricelli

Joshua Zeitz, a former aide to Governor Jim Florio and U.S. Senator Robert Torricelli, is expected to run against fourteen-term Republican Congressman Christopher Smith. Zeitz has raised $43,032, while Smith, a traditionally anemic fundraiser, has $204,161 cash on hand. Zeitz actually outraised Smith during the last quarter.

PoliticsNJ.com readers, in a highly unscientific survey that asks if Jon Corzine would rather be Governor of New Jersey or the U.S. Ambassador to Italy, say by a 2-1 margin that the Hold Me Accountable man would rather be in Rome than Trenton.  Even Corzine's friends suggest that he's not loving life as Governor.  Between problems with the Legislature, issues within his administration and personal life, and serious injuries suffered in a automobile accicdent last spring, it's not surprising that Corzine isn't having fun.

New Jersey state law says that September 16th is the deadline for a candidate to withdraw from the November general election ballot, and September 19th is the deadline for the County Committee to nominate a replacement candidate.  But in actuality, under the New Jersey Supreme Court decision five years ago when Robert Torricelli dropped his bid for re-election on September 30th, the parties really have until the first few days in October.

I am as supportive of the great calibrating power of the free market as any believer of individual liberty should be - and most Democrat politicians and a majority of Republicans, are not.

Pay-to-Play reforms in New York have been good for lobbyist Eric Shuffler, a former aide to Robert Torricelli and James E. McGreevey who wrote Governor Jon Corzine's State of the State address earlier this year. Shuffler also wrote the State of the City address for New York City Council President Christine Quinn. While Corzine paid Schuffler through the Democratic State Committee, his New York speech was paid out of taxpayer dollars. Quinn put the speechwriting gig out for bid and Shuffler won.

Monmouth University Polling Director Patrick Murray says that pollster Joel Benenson has a history of "smearing" polls that have his candidate ahead and defended the methodology used in a Gannett New Jersey poll released yesterday that shows Tom Kean, Jr. leading Bob Menendez by six points.

"Benenson's critique of the latest Monmouth University poll on the Senate race is based on inaccurate assumptions about the poll's methodology, specifically the demographic composition of the final voter sample," Murray said in an e-mail to PoliticsNJ.com. "My poll releases always indicate the 'unweighted' number of respondents in each demographic group so that informed poll observers can make their own assessment of the margin of error within each group. I do worry that unsophisticated poll watchers may misinterpret these numbers, and this appears to be the case here."

"The weighted demographic distributions for party identification in Sunday's poll -- the distribution upon which the final horse race numbers are based -- is 33% Dem, 26% Rep, and 41% Ind, which is slightly more Democratic than Benenson claims it 'should' be," said Murray. "As to race, my voter sample is 12% African-American and 10% Hispanic, which is also higher than Benenson claims it should be."

"Unfortunately, Mr. Benenson has a history of smearing public polls when they don't benefit his client. Four years ago, he blasted the Star-Ledger/Eagleton Poll for numbers which showed Doug Forrester taking a commanding lead over his client, Bob Torricelli. Two days after that poll was released, Torricelli pulled out of the race. I doubt very much that this would have happened if the internal campaign poll numbers did not match the public poll," said Murray.

by David P. Rebovich

There they were, two Republican stalwarts, speaking with the certainty that they represented majority sentiment even though their own party is in the minority. Senator Leonard Lance, the calm defender of the State Constitution, and Assembly Alex DeCroce, who knows the value of some well-timed bluster, announced their call for comprehensive ethics reform and legislation to explicitly prohibit the replacement of a candidate after the 48th day before a general election. Their purpose was clear. If the Democrats are thinking about substituting someone for U.S. Senator Bob Menendez, whose candidacy took a blow recently when the U.S. Attorney subpoenaed records pertaining to an old rental agreement, they would have to do so quickly.

What this new legislation would do is prevent a replay of the proverbial "switcheroo" that the Democrats pulled in 2002. Then-incumbent Senator Bob Torricelli had reportedly accepted large gifts from one David Chang and then saw his poll numbers plummet. Torricelli's loss to Republican candidate Doug Forrester seemed inevitable, and the incumbent dropped out of the race after what everyone thought was the absolute deadline for him to be replaced. But the Democrats petitioned the State Supreme Court to receive permission to run someone - former Senator Frank Lautenberg - in his place. The Court unanimously decided in favor of the Democrats, in part because the existing regulation was vague, and Lautenberg went on to beat Forrester.

Lance and DeCroce were out to bury the ghost of Torricelli, or so it seemed. Actually, this all looked like a win-win situation for New Jersey's Republicans and their U.S. Senate candidate, Tom Kean, Jr. If Democrats in the legislature and Governor Jon Corzine support Lance's and DeCroce's proposal, Menendez could not be replaced after September 20th even if, let's say, he is indicted by the U.S. Attorney. If Democrats don't support the measure, Republicans can accuse them of wanting to perpetuate a system where last minute shenanigans are possible and campaigns can be subverted.

Frankly, the Republicans also benefit by keeping the ghost of Bob Torricelli alive. Lance's and DeCroce's proposals do that and remind voters that Menendez is under investigation. And reminding voter's of Menendez's possible legal problems is a key component of Tom Kean, Jr.'s campaign strategy. At this point there is no reason to assume that Menendez will be indicted or replaced on the ticket. However, when the story broke that U.S. Attorney had subpoenaed the Senator's rental records, there was talk in Washington, D.C. and in Trenton about what to do if Menendez were indicted or if his poll numbers tanked.

To try to prevent a precipitous drop in those numbers, Menendez starting running two television ads. His camp had planned to wait until the end of September to start its ad blitz. But recent polls showed that he lags behind Kean in name recognition and is trailing his challenger by a few points. The incumbent's handlers apparently calculated that they could not afford to let voters continue to hear about only his problems and Kean's surprising lead in the media. So, they went on the air with ads that reintroduce Menendez as a leader who has stood up to President Bush on port security and who, as a young politician, fought corruption in Hudson County.

Understandably, Menendez wants to change the focus of the campaign to a discussion of substantive policy issues and on President Bush's problems. The incumbent knows from the polls that most New Jerseyans disagree with the White House on issues like the war in Iraq, funding for homeland security in the greater New York and Philadelphia regions, a woman's right to chose, and stem cell research. Menendez's campaign theme, and that of Democrats nationally, is that the unpopular President needs to be checked by Democratic majorities in Congress. On these terms any discussion of Menendez's alleged ethical impairment are attempts by Republicans and Kean to avoid talking about GOP policy positions that most New Jerseyans don't share.

This is not to say that Menendez has taken the high road. Rather, he has blasted Kean for allegedly having his father shake down fellow board members for campaign funds; for accepting donations from Horizon Blue Cross executives after voting to protect the company from a huge tax hike; and, for following Karl Rove's playbook of trashing the character of one's opponent. In addition, Menendez's team has contrasted the modest roots of their candidate, and how he worked his way up the political ladder, with Kean's privileged background and how the Republican is relying on his family name, rather than a record of accomplishment, to try to get to the U.S. Senate.

The difficulty with this approach is that New Jerseyans associate the Kean name with good times, good and ethical government, and a non-partisan approach to politics and public policy. As such, the GOP Senate candidate may well want Menendez to accuse him of being a "Kean." That's because Kean, Jr. wants to draw a distinction between how his father and he conduct themselves with the behavior of the ethically-impaired, ultra-partisan Democrats in New Jersey and self-serving politicians in both parties in Washington, D.C. On these terms Kean seems to be asking voters to think about not just what federal policies they want changed but which candidate they believe will work to change the way politics is conducted and will pursue the public interest.

That's a good message in today's political environment in a state that has seen Torricelli, former Governor Jim McGreevey, former Attorney General Zulima Farber, and former Middlesex County political boss John Lynch disgraced because of ethical problems or worse. But another message that works well in this political environment is that the Bush Administration needs to be checked because its foreign and domestic policies are hurting the nation and New Jersey. As Election Day approaches, expect Menendez to hammer away at how a U.S. Senator Kean would support the President and conservative GOP congressional leaders. Also expect Kean to continue to distance himself from his party's leaders on issues like the environment, stem cell research, funds for Homeland Security, and even the conduct of the war. And, don't be surprised if the issue of illegal immigration becomes important in the closing days of the campaign.

David P. Rebovich, Ph.D., is Managing Director of the Rider University Institute for New Jersey Politics (www.rider.edu/institute). He writes a regular column, ""On Politics," for NEW JERSEY LAWYER and monthly reports on New Jersey for CAMPAIGNS AND ELECTIONS Magazine. He also is a member of CQPolitics.com's Board of Advisors that provides commentary on national political developments.

Former U.S. Senator Bob Torricelli's horse in the race for Mayor of Washington, D.C. won just 31% of the vote in yesterday's Democratic primary. City Council Chairman Linda Cropp, who received a $3,000 campaign contribution from Torricelli's still-massive '02 re-election campaign fund, lost to Adrian Fenty, a 35-year-old City Councilman who is widely expected to become the capital city's next Mayor.

There is plenty of talk these days among political insiders about the prospects of a candidate switch in the race for United States Senate. This is New Jersey, so such specualtion is fair: Christine Todd Whitman dropped out of the race for U.S. Senate in 2000, followed by Robert Torricelli's exit from the gubernatorial campaign just tweleve days after he got in. In 2001, Donald DiFrancesco dropped his bid for Governor -- just after changing the law to move the primary back a few weeks to accommodate his withdrawal. James Treffinger was the front runner for the GOP U.S. Senate nomination in 2002 when federal prosecutors -- Republican federal prosecutors -- raided his office; he was gone in four days. Torricelli dropped out of the '02 Senate race five weeks before Election Day. And in 2004, James E. McGreevey resigned after just 22 months in office.