Rick Shaftan

Republican Christopher Christie has a seven point lead, 43%-35%, over Gov. Jon Corzine among likely voters, with 8% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a survey firm run by conservative strategist Rick Shaftan. 

Corzine has upside-down favorables of 26%-48%, while Christie is at 34%-25% and Daggett at 11%-12%.

Among voters who say they will definitely vote, Christie leads 44%-35%-8%.  Among definite voters, Corzine has an upside-down 26%-50% favorable rating; Christie is at 36%-26%, and Daggett is at 11%-12%.

Another poll, this one from Rick Shaftan's Neighborhood Research, shows the race for Governor in a statistical dead heat.  Republican Christopher Christie leads the Gov. Jon Crzine 36%-35%, with independent Christopher Daggett at 11%.

Corzine's favorables are upside-down at 28%-46%, while Christie is also upside-down at 28%-31%. Daggett's favorables are at 17%-4%.

Shaftan, a political consultant who works for conservative candidates, says that this is the first poll where Corzine and Christie have equal favorables, and that Corzine's favorables are actually higher among those definite in their intention to vote, 28% vs. 27%.

According to Shaftan, the Daggett vote "is real, at least for now."

Six out of ten voters who view Daggett favorably are voting for him, 60% of Daggett favorables are voting for him, a tally Shaftan called a very high figure for a third party candidate.  Daggett is at a 91%-0% favorable rating among New Jerseyans who say they are voting for him.

"This is significant because the Daggett vote is not a ‘protest' vote against the other two candidates but a positive affirmation of their candidate," Shaftan said. "Daggett could be a credible force if he can raise more money, and remain a viable alternative for voters."

Shaftan says Christie in underperforming in the most Republican region of the state, Northwest New Jersey, where he leads 37%-30%, with 17% for Daggett. 

"Christie's biggest problem here, and one he may overcome by election day, is Chris Daggett, who has strong numbers and, if he can remain viable, has the potential of siphoning off large numbers of potential Christie voters," said Shaftan.

Corzine leads in Northern New Jersey (Bergen, Essex, Hudson and Passaic) 46%-27%-12%.  In Central New Jersey (Mercer, Middlesex, and Middlesex), Christie has a 30%-27%-9% lead.  Christie leads 49%-18%-7% in Monmouth/Ocean, and 32%-30%-11% in South Jersey.

Republican Christopher Christie has a seven point lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine among definite voters, 40%-33%, according to a new poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a Republican firm headed by conservative Rick Shaftan.

Independent Christopher Daggett is at 7%.

Christie had a 44%-35% lead over Corzine in a poll released on Tuesday by a Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling. 

The Shaftan poll has Corzine's favorables upset down at 21%-50% among definite voters, while Christie is at 31%-25% and Daggett at 8%-1%. 

"Time is running out for the incumbent.  Christie's boost in favorables is not related to any advertising on either side, but support based on Christie being Corzine's only major opponent.  His #1 favorable now is ‘change' or ‘not Corzine' rather than his record as U.S. Attorney," Shaftan said.  "This indicates that voters are already starting to tune out Corzine and the incumbent is rapidly getting to a point where his advertising will have a very limited effect on public opinion."

The Christie message of “how can I do any worse” is starting to resonate with voters, Shaftan says.

"Despite the closeness of this race in the current ballot test, given Corzine's status as an incumbent, his high negatives and low favorables, undecided voters will shift heavily to Christie in the final days unless Corzine is able to change these numbers quickly," Shaftan said.

Shaftan said Corzine's "ace in the hole" is his ground operation and he holds a significant lead over Christie among those less likely to vote -- the natural targets of this operation.  He says Christie needs to "re-open a substantial lead with voters, and that appears very possible here."

"Democratic GOTV efforts will fail if it appears that Christie will win anyway," said Shaftan.  "Workers don't want to go to the wall for a candidate who's going to lose anyway."

Shaftan says the only good news for Corzine is that his liberal base coming home. 

"But even here, he is losing 13% of those voters to Daggett.  While Christie is not running any better with conservatives, these voters now represent 35% of the likely electorate versus 32% a month ago," Shaftan said.

Republican Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 39%-36% among definite voters, according to a poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a survey firm run by conservative strategist Rick Shaftan.  Independent Christopher Daggett is at 6%.

Corzine leads 52%-13%-9% among liberals, and 40%-34%-4% among moderates.  Christie has a 63%-13%-7% lead among conservatives.  Undecided voters "skew heavily to the left," according to the poll analysis.  Among seniors, Corzine leads 46%-32%-4%.

Corzine has an upside-down 23%-46% favorable rating; Christie is also upside-down at 20%-27%. Daggett remains largely unknown, with favorables of 2%-1%.

President Barack Obama has a 47%-28% favorable rating among likely New Jersey voters.  In a generic ballot test for the State Assembly, Republicans lead 40%-35%.

Among all voters, Corzine leads Christie 37%-35%, with 6% for Daggett. 

Angus King, above, who won two elections for Governor of Maine as an independent, says Chris Daggett needs statewide name ID by mid-September, or it will be too late

Independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett will not be content if his candidacy only manages to bring attention to issues that major party candidates might have otherwise ignored.

"I'm in this to win the election, not to steer the debate," he said in a phone interview today.

Daggett, who started his campaign with a certain amount of legitimacy from being a federal and state environmental official in the 1980's, has made progress towards becoming a competitive candidate.  He raised the $340,000 that qualified him for matching funds from the state, giving him close to $1 million to start for the general election and a spot in two required debates.  He won the endorsement of the Sierra Club yesterday, and several months ago hired media consultant Bill Hillsman, who has experience creating ads for underdog candidates like Paul Wellstone and Jesse Ventura.

But Daggett's name ID is anemic.  In a Quinnipiac poll released August 11, 92% of voters did not know enough about him to form an opinion (it was 82% in a Monmouth University poll from a week earlier).  He polled at 7% in a three-way match-up with Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and Republican Chris Christie.  The question most insiders have asked all along is not whether Daggett can win, but whether he hurts Jon Corzine or Chris Christie.

"I think this is something that could change very rapidly as people come back from vacation mode and start to focus on the fact that we have a gubernatorial election, and the fact that people have just had it with both parties.  They're discouraged, disappointed and in some cases just disgusted by what they see," he said.  "I think people will be looking for an alternative."

Rick Shaftan is getting his way.  The veteran conservative political consultant has been arguing for years that one of the best ways to beat a Democrat in New Jersey is for Republicans to run a Catholic candidate of Irish or Italian descent for statewide office.  Now the Republicans are running two Catholics - the first time they have nominated a Catholic since William Cahill in 1969.  GOP gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie's father is Irish and his mother was Italian; his running mate, Kimberly McFadden Guadagno, is Irish, and his married to Superior Court Judge Michael Anthony Guadagno.  Christie and Guadagno are the first Irish Republicans to run statewide since Cahill, and Christie is the first Italian American to win a Republican nomination for statewide office.

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Conservative strategist Rick Shaftan says potential candidates have emerged to take on three Republicans who voted for cap and trade

Cape May County Republican Chairman David Von Savage said today that he does not agree with U.S. Rep. Frank LoBiondo's (R-Vineland) vote on cap-and-trade, but that conservative political consultant Rick Shaftan is “taking advantage of a highly volatile situation” by helping candidates take up primary challenges against three Republican congressmen who voted for cap-and-trade legislation on Friday.  

“I think Rick Shaftan is reckless," said Von Savage. I understand Rick is a vendor, and therefore looking for willing accomplices to advance his financial endgame.”  

Von Savage, whose county is entirely represented by LoBiondo, said that he does not agree with the his congressman's vote.  Instead, he favors tax incentives for alternative energy development and over  “punitive levels of taxation” to wean the United States off foreign fossil fuels.  

“While there are issues regarding the Congressman’s vote with conservatives in the party, I think it’s irresponsible for Shaftan to be sticking his nose down this way,” he said.  “Respectfully, what he ought to do is consider relocating to the south and utilizing his approach to campaigning south of the Mason-Dixon Line.”

Steve Lonegan gubernatorial campaign strategist Rick Shaftan said that the Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind poll released today showing rival Chris Christie leading Lonegan by 24 points in the Republican primary does not measure the impact of a negative news story on Christie.

“This poll was mostly done last week before the Inglesino story hit, the Jersey Guys thing, the fallout over the weekend and several pieces of mail that arrived on Saturday,” said Shaftan.

The poll of 561 likely Republican voters was conducted between May 26 and 30.  The Associated Press broke the story about Christie confidante John Inglesino’s $3,000 a year job with state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio (R-Montville) on May 27.  The job, which kept Inglesino in the state’s pension system after he lost reelection as a freeholder, ran counter to one of Christie’s campaign promises about ending part-time employees' pension benefits.  Lonegan immediately seized the story, but perhaps its largest repercussion –  the radio drubbing of Chrisitie by 101.5 fm’s “The Jersey Guys” – did not occur until the evening drive time on May 29. 

There are some strong technical similarities between a new television ad for Republican gubernatorial candidate Steven Lonegan produced by consultant Rick Shaftan and ads for Bayonne Mayor Mark Smith that were produced last year by his consultant, Paul Swibinski. The ads include similar silhouettes, fonts, and other graphics. 

Shaftan, who works for conservative candidates, and Swibinski, who does considerable work for candidates backed by the Hudson County Democratic Organization, are longtime friends.  But Swibinski is not secretly working for Lonegan are wrong; instead, the two firms use the same video editing house.  That company, PolitickerNJ.com is told, is under strict instructions not to comingle political work brought to them from Shaftan and Swibinski.  There’s a good chance the video editor will get the wrath of Shaftan sometime today.

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Joe the Plumber will help GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan raise money when he stumps in New Jersey tomorrow.

Steve Lonegan's gubernatorial campaign is not paying Samuel Wurzelbacher, a.k.a. "Joe the Plumber," a speaking fee for tomorrow's much hyped fundraising event in Clark.  Instead, they agreed to buy copies of his new book.

Lonegan strategist Rick Shaftan said that he did not know the exact number off the top of his head, but that the campaign agreed to purchase "100 or 200" copies of Joe the Plumber: Fighting for the American Dream.  They'll be distributed to campaign donors of $125 or more, who will then have the opportunity to get the books signed by Wurzelbacher.

"We're buying a ton of books.  That's how we worked it out," said Shaftan.

Wurzelbacher's book retails for $24.95, though the price was slashed to $16.47 on Amazon.com.  A Web site that offers to book speaking engagements for Wurzelbacher sets a minimum budget of $8,000 to $10,000, although Wurzelbacher told Shaftan that he is not represented by the booking agency.
Shaftan said the Lonegan campaign ran the event by the Election Law Enforcement Commission, which approved giving donors the books as long as they deduct the purchase price from their matching funds submissions.