Richard Codey

Gov. Jon Corzine enters the final weeks of his re-election campaign with an upside-down 39%-56% job approval rating.  For comparison purposes, Gov. Christine Todd Whitman was at 53%-43% when she was narrowly re-elected twelve years ago.  New Jersey's last two Governors were popular on Election Day - Richard Codey had a job approval of 68%-16% in 2005, and Donald DiFrancesco was at 60%-14% in 2001 - but they were not candidates for re-election. (These are all Quinnipiac numbers)

One comparison for Corzine and Republican Christopher Christie could be the 2006 U.S. Senate race between Democrat Robert Menendez and Republican Thomas Kean, Jr., which was fought against the backdrop of ethics issues and a strong political environment.  In an October 12 Quinnipiac poll, Menendez led Kean 49%-45%.  Menendez, who had been appointed to the Senate ten months earlier, had split favorables: 32%-32%; Kean, the son of a popular former governor, was at 34%-18%.

From left: Assemblyman Fred Scalera (D-Nutley), Gov. Jon Corzine, U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson), Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola, Essex County Executive Joe DiVincenzo, and Assemblyman Ralph Caputo (D-Belleville)

BELLEVILLE - The self-proclaimed party of diversity lined up at the start of the Columbus Day Parade today, and if the presence of a single woman packed into this brace of gray and blue suited would-be alpha males heartened Democratic Party onlookers, the downside was that Nutley Mayor Joanne Cocchiola is, in fact, a Republican.

"We're from every part of Italy you can imagine," cracked U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) in an effort to explain the gender domination factor; indeed, they even had an Irishman in there, Essex County Clerk Chris Durkin, who made a point, in the midst of all the pre-march backyard chest-thumping, to compliment Celeste Caputo, wife of Assemblyman Ralph Caputo (D-Belleville), on the food.

Making an appearance here at arguably the area's most important Columbus Day event and forced to share a piece of the street with a Christopher Columbus lookalike in Genovese regalia who, when addressed, only responded in Italian, Gov. Jon Corzine relished a chance to inflate his wobbly image in this blue collar, Italian-Irish-Latino Catholic stronghold where Newark's white ethnics re-entrenched after the 1967 troubles.

Twenty-three days from D-Day, he leaned heavily on the locals.

"He opens up his home the way he opens up his heart," Corzine, affectionately gripping the back of Caputo's neck, told a crowd of local Democratic Party rivals who shelved their differences long enough to occupy the same patio with the governor moments before convening in the street at the head of any number of school marching bands, 1940s and 1950s cars, and party flotillas.

Publicly, Senate Republicans are saying they have voted to support Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) for Senate President, but privately it became clear in a private meeting of the GOP caucus today that there is no support for any deal to help Richard Codey (D-Roseland) forge a bi-partisan coalition to win re-election as Senate President.  Indeed, more than half of the seventeen Republican Senators seem to prefer Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford), the current Majority Leader, sources say.

Kean was unopposed for re-election as the Senate Republican Leader.  Assemblyman Michael Doherty (R-Oxford), who ousted an incumbent in the Republican primary last June and is the likely winner in next month's special election for an unexpired term, participated in the Republican meeting. (He abstained on the vote for Kean.)  Joseph Adolf, the Republican Senate candidate in the District 6 special election, was not invited to attend the Senate GOP reorganization meeting and strategy session.  Few Republicans expect Adolf to oust incumbent James Beach (D-Voorhees).

After participating in a morning caucus meeting in Trenton, Senate Republicans announced today that they have unanimously voted to support Sen. Minority Leader Tom Kean (R-Westfield) for senate president.

"People are looking for change in Trenton, and our caucus is united and determined to provide real alternatives to the governor's failed policies that will create jobs and make our state more affordable for everyone," Kean said in a release, thanking his 16 fellow caucus members for their support.

The announcement gives Kean 17 votes, versus 14 publicly committed Democratic caucus votes in favor of Senate Majority Leader Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford) for the position.

"We have 17," said Kean. "We have the most votes for senate president of any of the contenders, and our goal as a caucus is to get across the finish line."

The question now is where the eight supporters of sitting Senate President Richard Codey (D-Roseland) will go: to the member of their own party who built a coalition to force their champion from power, or across the aisle to support a Republican.

Secretary of the Senate Ellen Davenport (D-Maplewood), a political ally of Senate President Richard Codey

On the most likely to be unemployed list for 2010: Secretary of the Senate Ellen Davenport.  With the likelihood that Richard Codey (D-Roseland) will not return as Senate President, it look like Davenport, a close Codey ally who served as Mayor of Maplewood and as an Essex County Freeholder, will be a casualty of Codey's leadership fight with Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford).  The job pays $81,000-a-year, and the post traditionally changes along with the leadership.  Davenport, 67, got the job after Democrats won control of the Senate in 2003.

The Assembly Clerk is Dana Burley, a 44-year-old Camden City Councilwoman.  The retirement of her political patron, Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts (D-Camden), puts her at some risk.  But unlike the Senate, there is no real change of control in the lower house.  If Essex Democrats claim the $90,000-a-year position (as Camden did when Roberts succeeded Albio Sires in 2006 and named Burley), Burley won't have a problem finding a new gig; South Jersey Democrats are ruling the world these days, and Burley is a member of that organization.

Two State Senators who have remained loyal to Richard Codey (D-Roseland) are likely nearing the end of the legislative careers, according to several Democratic insiders.  As a white man representing a district where Latinos and African Americans outnumber whites, John Girgenti (D-Hawthorne) has been at risk of losing party support for the last few years.  Assemblywoman Nellie Pou (D-Paterson) asked Passaic County Democrats to consider her for the Senate in 2007, but party leaders backed the re-election of the 62-year-old Hawthorne Democrat who has been in the Legislature since 1977.  Latino leaders have been eyeing the 35th district Senate seat as their best opportunity to double their representation in the upper house – from one to two.

Girgenti could either lose party support for another term in the Senate, or mapmakers – if Democrats were to dominate legislative redistricting – could offer him the chance run in a new district, perhaps against Senate Minority Whip Kevin O’Toole (R-Cedar Grove).

Some Democrats say the retirement of Senate President Pro-Tempore Shirley Turner (D-Lawrence) could come sooner rather than later.  If Gov. Jon Corzine wins a second term, Turner – no favorite of the front office – could be offered another post in an effort to clear a path for Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing) to go to the Senate.  Watson Coleman, popular with Democrats, appears to have gotten the short end of the stick in a legislative leadership deal that will make Sheila Oliver (D-Ewing) the next Assembly Speaker and Joseph Cryan (D-Union) the new Majority Leader.  Watson Coleman is also a contender for a cabinet post in a second Corzine administration. 

If Turner completes her turn and Watson Coleman remains in the Assembly, there is a good chance that Turner will get nudged into retirement in two years so that Watson Coleman can move up to the Senate then.

Senate President Richard Codey (D-Roseland), right, with legendary Main Events trainer Lou Duva and state Sen. John Girgenti (D-Hawthorne), left.

PATERSON - If Senate President Richard Codey (D-Roseland) endorses Assemblywoman Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) for speaker, he wouldn't see the move as a self-destruct button on his own leadership chair.
 
"I'm saying it's not the end of the world if we had a senate president and a speaker from Essex County," said Codey, to stories suggesting Essex County fracture between Codey, who's trying to protect his senate presidency; and County Executive Joe Divincenzo, who supports Oliver for speaker and South Jersey Senate Majority Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford) as part of a North-South Jersey leadership trade-off.
 
Trying to succeed retiring Assembly Speaker Joe Roberts (D-Camden) as the face of South Jersey leadership in Trenton, Sweeney has enough (14 of 23) votes in the Democratic caucus to extract Codey from the rostrum roost Codey has owned for six years. But Codey still hopes to build cross-the-aisle support in the Republican caucus to block his South Jersey rival and hold onto the senate presidency.
 
And he doesn't believe he needs to fight Oliver in the process, as he envisions an all-Essex leadership team - for two years.
 
"Who's the Speaker of the House?"
 
"Nancy Pelosi," was the answer.
 
"Who leads the U.S. Senate?"
 
A mind blurred over with Jersey political personages failed to immediately dredge the name of Sen. Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nevada), but Codey made his point anyway.

Assemblywoman Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) at her fundraiser tonight in Paterson.

PATERSON - The guests came and kept coming, happily bellying up to the bar and spilling into the overflow rooms here at the Brownstone for a Sheila Oliver fundraiser even as Essex County Democratic Party Chairman Phil Thigpen upped the confidence decibel level with a release that all of the Assembly people from his powerful county delegation would back the East Orange Assemblywoman for speaker.

The email missive carried the latest piece of bad news for Senate President Richard Codey (D-Roseland), who's fighting to remain in his chair of power without a majority of the majority in his Democratic caucus and now with the lower house members from his home county throwing in with Oliver.

Poised to become the first African American woman speaker, Oliver is generally seen as a North Jersey counterweight to South Jersey state Sen. Steve Sweeney (D-West Deptford), who has the Democratic Party votes in the senate to take Codey's job. The more support she builds, the tougher it becomes for Codey to justify sticking around as a double dose of Essex in both the speaker's and Senate president's chairs.

All nine Essex County Democrats in the State Assembly have endorsed Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) for Speaker.  Oliver now has endorsements from 35 Democratic legislators and likely winners of open seats, giving her a seemingly overwhelming lead in the race to succeed retiring Speaker Joseph Roberts (D-Camden).

Oliver's rival, Majority Leader Bonnie Watson Coleman (D-Ewing) has just two votes, her own and Reed Gusciora (D-Princeton), her running mate.

Among Oliver's supporters are John McKeon (D-West Orange) and Mila Jasey (D-South Orange), who are running mates and political allies of Senate President Richard Codey (D-Roseland).

Also backing Oliver are Ralph Caputo (D-Belleville), Albert Coutinho (D-Newark), Thomas Giblin (D-Montclair), Frederick Scalera (D-Nutley), Grace Spencer (D-Newark), and Cleopatra Tucker (D-Essex).

"I am honored that our entire delegation is supporting Sheila Oliver for Speaker," said Essex County Democratic Chairman Phil Thigpen, "she will be a fighter for the taxpayers in New Jersey; her dedication to human services will insure that the individuals so often overlooked in government will now have a strong voice in Trenton.  I am so proud that Essex County is part of this historic election."

Senate Minority Leader Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) says he has not closed the door to making a deal that could deliver seventeen Republican Senators to help re-elect Senate President Richard Codey (D-Roseland).  The problem for Kean is that his caucus is sharply divided over the race for Senate President, and it would be difficult for Kean to deliver the seventeen GOP Senators as a block for either Codey or Stephen Sweeney (D-West Deptford).  Sweeney already has commitments from fourteen of 23 Democratic Senators, so he really doesn't need to make a deal with Kean. 

What's more, Sweeney is believed to have at least seven votes from the Republican side.  Kean can't make a deal if more than one-third of his caucus seeks to stop him.

Sweeney's biggest threat to becoming Senate President could be the election of Republican Christopher Christie as Governor.  If Christie, as Governor-elect, wants to play in legislative leadership contests, he could make a compelling argument to Republican Senators to support him. But Christie might have little interest in making Codey, already popular with real voters from his fourteen months as Governor, the most visible Democrat in the state.  Instead, he might need to capitalize on the rift between Codey and Sweeney and the possibility that some Senators could be motivated by spite.