Raymond Bateman

Cumberland County Democrats now have a 5-2 majority on the Board of Freeholders, with Dr. Joseph Riley unseating Republican Freeholder James Rocco by a 1,616 vote margin. Democratic incumbent Louis Magazzu ran nearly 4,000 votes ahead of Republican challenger Michael Schenk. Control has been at stake in nearly every Freeholder race over the last decade, but Democrats will now keep their majority at least through 2008; next year, one Democrat and one Republican are up for election.

Assemblyman Christopher Bateman is prepared to challenge incumbent Walter Kavanaugh in the 16th district State Senate primary next year, if Kavanaugh does not retire. Several sources close to Bateman say that the decision to run for Senate in 2007 is final.

The 73-year-old Kavanaugh, who has had serious health issues in recent years, has served in the Legislature since his election to the State Assembly in 1975. He moved up to the Senate in 1997 when John Ewing retired. Bateman, 49, is the son of former Senate President (and 1977 GOP gubernatorial candidate) Raymond Bateman; he was elected to the Assembly in 1993 after serving as a Somerset County Freeholder and Township Committeeman and Mayor in Branchburg. Kip Bateman is a partner in former Governor Donald DiFrancesco's law firm.

Some insiders say Somerset County GOP Chairman Dale Florio, who has been anxious to avoid a divisive primary, will likely lean on Kavanaugh to retire gracefully.

A move by Bateman would open up an Assembly seat in this solidly Republican district for the first time in ten years. Possible candidates include Freeholder Denise Coyle, Bridgewater Mayor Patricia Flannery, and outgoing Freeholder Kenneth Scherer.

The Star-Ledger reported this weekend that Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance faces a possible GOP primary challenge from Assemblyman Michael Doherty.

If Tom Kean, Jr. wins election to the United States Senate in November, he will become the first Kean to win statewide office on the first try. His great-grandfather, Hamilton Fish Kean, lost the 1924 GOP primary for U.S. Senate (to the incumbent, Walter Edge) and then won a Senate seat in 1928. His great-great-uncle, John Kean, lost an 1892 race for Governor (by just 7,625 votes to George Werts) and then won a seat in the U.S. Senate seven years later.

His father, Thomas Kean, Sr., lost his bid for the 1977 Republican gubernatorial nomination (to Raymond Bateman) before becoming Governor in 1981. His grandfather, Robert Winthrop Kean, gave up a House seat he had held for twenty years to run for the United States Senate in 1958; he lost to Democrat Harrison Williams and never ran again.

James Dowden, a Democrat who spent twenty years as the Mayor of Bridgewater, a Republican town of 42,900 people in Somerset County, has not ruled out a bid for the State Senate in the sixteenth district. Many Republicans expect the incumbent, Walter Kavanaugh, to retire after 32 years in the Legislature, and the conventional wisdom is that Assemblyman Christopher Bateman will emerge as the leading candidate for the Senate. Before his retirement, Dowden was the Vice President for Administration at Raritan Valley Community College, where Bateman's father, former Senate President and gubernatorial candidate Raymond Bateman, was the longtime Chairman.

State Senator Walter Kavanaugh, in ailing health for the last few years, is not likely to seek re-election to the Senate in 2007, according to two Somerset County Republican leaders and a Senate GOP staffer. Publicly, the 73-year-old Kavanaugh has been saying he intends to run again, but GOP insiders still expect him to retire. Kavanaugh was first elected to the State Assembly in 1975 and moved up to the Senate in 1997 when John Ewing retired.

The leading candidate to replace him is Christopher Bateman, a seven-term Assemblyman and the son of former Senate President and 1977 GOP gubernatorial candidate Raymond Bateman. The other 16th district Assemblyman, Peter Biondi, had expressed interest in moving up to the Senate, but the new conventional wisdom is that Biondi will likely remain in the Assembly, where he is in line to become Minority Leader when Alex DeCroce retires. Some conservatives view Bridgewater Mayor Patricia Flannery as a possible Senate candidate. There will be not shortage of potential Assembly candidates to replace Bateman in this safe Republican district.

Tom Kean, Jr. continues the family tradition of losing a big primary and then winning one. His great-grandfather, Hamilton Kean, lost the 1924 GOP primary for U.S. Senate (to the incumbent, Walter Edge) and then won a Senate seat in 1928. His father, Thomas Kean, Sr., lost primaries for Congress (to Millicent Fenwick in 1974 by just 83 votes) and Governor (to Raymond Bateman in 1977) before winning the 1981 gubernatorial election. Kean, Jr. lost his first bid for public office six years ago -- a congressional primary against Michael Ferguson. Menendez also lost his first campaign -- a local race for Union City Commissioner in 1982.