Quinnipiac

Clay Richards, known to New Jersey political insiders as the Assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is expected to retire this summer after a forty year career that included political reporting for UPI and Newsday.  Maurice Carroll, the poll director and a former New York Times reporter, is expected to accompany Richards on his final Quinnipiac poll news conference today. 

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie has a 10 point lead in the race for Governor, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll

Republican Christopher Christie has a ten point lead in the race for Governor against Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine, whose approvals have reached the worst in his governorship, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released early this morning.

Christie, the former U.S. Attorney, leads Corzine 50%-40% among likely voters. 

Corzine has an upside-down approval rating of 36%-56%.  He was at 38%-53% last month.  55% of voters say he does not deserve to be re-elected, while 37% say he does.

In Quinnipiac University's general election matchup between Gov. Jon Corzine and former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, Christie leads 45%-38%:

Christopher Christie, who leads Steven Lonegan among Republican primary voters 56%-33%, leads among men 54%-39%, and among women 57%-25%, according to today's Quinnipiac University poll on the New Jersey GOP gubernatorial primary.

New Jerseyans continue to like their two United States Senators.  A new Quinnipiac University poll has Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) with 46%-37% approval ratings, while Robert Menendez (D-Hoboken) is at 41%-32%.

The next U.S. Senate race is in three years, when Menendez is expected to seek re-election to a third term.

CLICK HERE TO READ THE QUINNIPIAC POLL

Gov. Jon Corzine continues to struggle for the approval of New Jersey voters.

Gov. Jon Corzine has an upside-down 38%-53% approval rating and upside-down favorable of 37%-51%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.  Among likely Democratic primary voters, Corzine is winning just 65% of the vote against three minor candidates, with 20% of voters still undecided about voting for Corzine in the Democratic primary.

"The good news for Gov. Jon Corzine is that he may have hit bottom and stopped his slide.  Once the primary is over, Corzine will put on his million-dollar golden gloves and start to fight," Richards added.  "Independent voters are the key to this race and by a 2-1 margin they don't like the job Corzine is doing. But all Corzine has to do is win back half the Democrats now voting for Christie and he is back in the race."

Jeff Boss, who claims to have witnessed the federal government planning the 9/11 terrorist attacks, and Phillipsburg businessman Roger Bacon, who designs coffee mugs, are at 5%.  Former Glen Ridge Mayor Carl Bergmanson is at 4%.

Getty Images Photo

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads Steve Lonegan, the former Mayor of Bogota, by 23 points

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie has opened a 23-point lead, 56%-33%, over Lonegan in his bid to be the Republican gubernatorial nominee, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.  Last month, Christie led Lonegan, the former Bogota Mayor, by nine points. A Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey has Christie also released this morning has Christie leading Lonegan by 18 points.  Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham) is polling at 2% in both polls.

"Chris Christie has solidified his Republican support and is well over the 50 percent needed for victory, while Steve Lonegan has not picked up any significant strength in the past month," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  "No one knows who will turn out in a New Jersey Republican primary so anything can happen, but all signs point to a Christie victory.  Most of Lonegan's strength comes from conservative GOP voters, with Christie scoring heavily among those who say they are moderate and liberal Republicans."

In a general election matchup, Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by seven points, 45%-38% -- the same as it was in an April 22 poll.  Lonegan leads Corzine 42%-40%, a statistical dead heat.

ALSO: CHRISTIE LEADS LONEGAN BY 18 POINTS IN MONMOUTH UNIVERSITY/GANNETT NEW JERSEY POLL

New Jerseyans support a law that would allow same sex couples to marry, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.  The proposed law, which would be voted on by legislators later this year, is backed 49%-43% -- a huge increase from a December 2007 Quinnipiac poll that showed 50% of state voters opposing same-sex marriage.  And nearly two-thirds of the voters back the existing civil union law.

Public support for marriage equality comes even after the National Organization for Marriage launched a reported $1.5 million TV ad campaign opposing same-sex marriage in New Jersey.

By a 66%-30%, New Jersey voters reject the argument that same-sex marriage ""is a threat to the traditional marriage between a man and a woman."

"Legislators, take note:  No matter what lies our opponents throw on television, New Jersey stands by marriage equality and will stand by you when you vote to end discrimination in marriage in 2009," said Steven Goldstein, chair of Garden State Equality.

When New Jersey voters are offered three choices:

• 42 percent say same-sex couples should be allowed to marry;
• 30 percent say same-sex couples should be allowed to form civil unions, but not marry;
• 20 percent oppose any legal recognition of same-sex relationships.

"Two years after New Jersey's civil union law went into effect, sentiment for allowing same-sex marriage in the state has shifted from six points against to six points in favor," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  "Support for the same-sex civil union law has risen dramatically and New Jersey voters do not see gay marriage as a threat to traditional marriages between a man and a woman. Support for allowing gay couples to adopt children is nearly 2 - 1." 

Six out of ten voters believe that same-sex couples should be allowed to adopt children.   

With Gov. Jon Corzine's consistently low job approval ratings giving Republicans hope of winning their first statewide campaign in New Jersey since 1997, there has been some low-frequency buzz in Washington about this state's election as a bellwether for the national political climate.

But two political analysts from inside the beltway cast doubt on the race's national significance, although Republicans could use a victory here, rightly or wrongly, as a sign of the party's resurgence.

"I think people, at least inside the beltway, for what it's worth, see that Corzine is not in great shape. They blame the economy and figure he'll eke out a win just on the basis of money," said Cook Political Report Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy.  "A lot of Republicans kind of shrug their shoulders and say we're probably going to have a really good candidate there, and he's going to come really close, but we might get buried in Corzine's money."

Republicans are also looking to Virginia - the only other state that holds an off-year gubernatorial election - for some sign of hope.  There has been a three-decade trend in Virginia of the party that wins the White House loses the state house the following year.

Corzine's disapproval rating of 54% in a Quinnipiac poll, along with his 50% unfavorable rating, would under typical circumstances put presumed Republican frontrunner Chris Christie in a good position to defeat him in November.  But Corzine, Duffy said, has three things going for him: cash, the inherent Democratic nature of New Jersey and an ally in President Barack Obama, who remains popular in the state.

"I think he's in a unique position. Almost anybody else faces an incredibly uphill battle," she said.

Duffy analogized national Republican hopes for a win to comic strip character Charlie Brown's famous run at the football before his friend Lucy pulls it away.

"They'll go try to kick the ball again, but if they fall flat on their backs they won't be all that surprised," she said.

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan by nine points, 46%-37%, in the race for the Republican nomnation for Governor, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.  Christie had led Lonegan 40%-19% in a poll taken by Quinnipiac last month.  

“Christopher Christie’s lead over Steve Lonegan in the Republican primary shrinks as we shift from registered voters to likely voters.  These Republican loyalists are less impressed by a political newcomer than a party veteran,” Richards said.

In a general election matchup Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine by seven points, 45%-38%, and is tied with Steve Lonegan, 41%-41%.  

Corzine an upside-down job approval rating of 37%-54% -- the worst of his nine-year political career.  He was at 40%-50% in March.

“The economy is killing Gov. Jon Corzine’s approval rating in New Jersey so much that he is vulnerable not only to a strong challenger such as Chris Christie but a lesser known Republican such as Mayor Steve Lonegan,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  “By any measure, Corzine is losing the support of key independent voters.  More importantly, he is not generating the level of love from fellow Democrats he needs to offset his big negatives among Republicans and independents."

Richards says it will be tough for Corzine to win re-election when six out of ten New Jerseyans disapprove of his handling of the economy.

“But Corzine has a great potential equalizer in this campaign – the millions he will spend to get his message across," said Richards.