Quinnipiac

A Quinnipiac University poll released today shows that New Jersey voters associates political corruption more with Democrats (50%) than with Republicans (15%).  Nearly two-third of New Jerseyans say the recent wave of arrests of public officials embarrasses them, while one-third says it does not.  

Even though most of the political figures arrested last month were Democrats, voters don’t seem to hold the Democratic Governor accountable.  Just 28% say the arrests make them less likely to support Jon Corzine’s bid for a second term.  67% of voters said the arrests would not make them less likely to back Corzine.

The number of likely voters who think Republican Christopher Christie would do a better job handling the state budget than the Democratic incumbent, Jon Corzine, has changed considerably from July to August.  Christie leads Corzine on this question 47%-41%, a drop from the 50%-36% that picked Christie over Corzine on the state budget issue in a Quinnipiac poll released less than a month ago.

Corzine' greatest strength during his 2000 and 2005 statewide campaigns - his background as a Wall Street investment banker - seems to have little effect on his bid for re-election.  Less than one-quarter of voters (24%) say his career in finance - he was Co-Chairman of Goldman Sachs - has made him a better governor; 19% say it has made Corzine a worse governor; and 53% say it makes no difference.

Voters continue to view Christie as the candidate most likely to clean up corruption (54%-31%), but political corruption is only the top issue for 6% of the electorate.  More than half the voters (55%) say that Christie's seven years as U.S. Attorney gives him enough experience to be governor.  35% say it has not.

The New Jersey Legislature overall has an upside-down approval rating of 23%-63%, and but voters are split over which party they would like to see in control of the State Assembly after the November election.  45% say they would prefer the Republicans take control, while 43% want the Democrats to keep their majority, according to the Quinnipiac University poll.

The Legislature's job approval was at 27%-59% in July.  That means job approval has gone down over the last four weeks for a body that has been in recess since June.

Nearly half of independent likely voters (49%) prefer a GOP-controlled Assembly next year, while 28% of the independents want the Democrats to remain in charge.

In South Jersey, where Quinnipiac breaks down regional the "Phillyland" region to include likely voters in Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester and Salem counties, 51% prefer a Democratic Legislature while 38% want Republicans in charge. These numbers affect legislative contests in districts 1, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8.

New Jerseyans may not approve of the way Gov. Jon Corzine is doing his job, but they continue to like the state's two United States Senators, according to the Quinnipiac University poll.

Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) has a 45%-38% job approval rating, although he is upside-down (36%-50%) among independents. He was at 43%-40% one month ago.  Robert Menendez (D-Hoboken) has a job approval rating of 39%-38%, and is also upside-down among independents (34%-39%).  Menendez was at 40%-37% in July.

New Jersey voters, by a 50%-15% margin, say they associate corruption with Democrats more than Republicans, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

More than nine out of then (93%) of New Jerseyans say government corruption is a "somewhat serious" or "very serious" problem and 65% of voters say the recent wave of corruption arrests embarrasses them as New Jersey residents.

"Is corruption a big problem?  Wow, is it!   Almost everyone in New Jersey thinks so.   And two thirds feel personally embarrassed to live in a state where politicians are pictured in handcuffs," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "More than half associate corruption with the Democratic party.  Almost a third say both parties share the blame.   Republicans pretty much get a pass."

Independent voters blame Democrats, 56%-9%, and even 28% of Democrats point the finger at their own party.

Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by nine points, 51%-42%, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released this morning. 

In a July 15 poll, Christie led 53%-41%. 

With independent Christopher Daggett in the mix, Christie leads Corzine 46%-41%, with 7% for Daggett.  Christie led 47%-38% in July, with 8% for Daggett.

“Chris Christie has lost a little ground, but he’s still up nine points in the two-candidate matchup.  Third party candidate Christopher Daggett is going nowhere, but he makes the race interesting, eating into Christie’s lead and bringing the gap down to six points,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

Corzine has an upside-down job approval rating of 36%-58%, slightly better than where he was at a month ago, 33%-60%.

Corzine has upside-down favorable of 37%-54%; he was at 37%-48% last month. Christie's favorable are at 42%-26%; he was at 39%-20% a month ago. Daggett remains virtually unknown, with a 4%-3% favorable rating.

The two candidates for Lt. Governor are also largely unknown among likely voters.  Republican Kim Guadagno has a 7%-2% favorable rating, while Democrat Loretta Weinberg is at 11%-7%.

“If the Lieutenant Governor choices will make a difference, it hasn’t shown up yet," Carroll said.  "Hardly anyone has heard of Guadagno and Weinberg is far from a household name.”

Quinnipiac University will release a new poll on Tuesday morning featuring a head-to-head matchup between Jon Corzine and Christopher Christie, and new job approval numbers for Corzine.

A July 15 Quinnipiac poll had Christie leading by twelve points, 53%-41%. 

Tomorrow's poll will also discuss voter views toward corruption, and whether voters would prefer Corzine or Christie for a day at the beach.

To get a true picture of where the New Jersey gubernatorial race stands right now, analysts and pollsters say you need to look past the horse race poll numbers and focus instead on some of the recent suveys' underlying questions.

While the head-to-head match ups demonstrate a clear trend of Republican Christopher Christie consistently leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, they're malleable this early in the campaign, and fluctuations in that number- whether swings or incremental changes - should be taken with a grain of salt.  Voters, for the most part, do not start paying attention until September at the earliest.

"That's why the campaigns are paying attention to all the stuff underneath that: the favorability rating, the issue ratings," said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, whose organization, along with Gannett New Jersey, is releasing its own poll on Thursday.

What's clear is that Governor Corzine faces enormous political problems, and that the public is clearly in an anti-incumbent mood.  But there is still time - especially given Corzine's huge monetary advantage - to close the gap with Christie.

In the Quinnipiac University poll released today, Murray said the most important number is the 40% of voters who don't know enough about Christie to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.  Although Christie's favorables remains net positive, there's plenty of room for his unfavorables to increase.

"That 40% who don't know Chris Christie hanging out there in this poll, that's got to leave his campaign worried," he said.

Pollsters got it wrong the last two times a Democratic Governor ran for re-election:  an August 1993 Eagleton-Rutgers poll had Gov. James Florio leading Republican Christine Todd Whitman by nine points, 49%-40%; and Republican Raymond Bateman led Gov. Brendan Byrne by seven points, 46%-39%, in an August 1977 Eagleton-Rutgers poll.

In 1993, Florio had a favorable/unfavorable rating of 49%-40%.  31% rated his job as excellent or good, 36% said he was a fair governor, and 23% rated him as poor.

In 1977, 28% of New Jerseyans viewed Byrne as an excellent or good governor, 39% considered him fair, and 29% said he was doing a poor job.

Whitman beat Florio 49%-48%, and Byrne was re-elected by a 56%-42% margin over Bateman.

Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine trails Republican Christopher Christie by 12 points, 53%-41%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  Christie is the first Republican to be over 50% in a summer poll since Thomas Kean ran for re-election 24 years ago.

Corzine has upside-down favorables/unfavorables of 34%-58%, and an upside-down job approval rating of 33%-60%. 

In his bid for re-election to the U.S. Senate, Democrat Robert Torricelli had upside-down favorable/unfavorable rating of 15%-36% and an upside-down job approval rating of 28%-49% in an August 2002 Quinnipiac poll. In an August 2008 Quinnipiac poll, President George W. Bush had an upside-down job approval rating of 26%-70%.

Christopher Christie, leading Gov. Jon Corzine 53%-41% in today's Quinnipiac University poll, is the first Republican in twelve years to lead in a statewide race in July, and is likely the first Republican since Thomas Kean, Sr. in 1985 to be at 50% during the summer.

Past Quinnipiac University polls:

July 1997: Christie Whitman 46%, James E. McGreevey 39%
June 2000: Corzine 46%, Bob Franks 26%
June 2000: Al Gore 45%, George W. Bush 40%
July 2001: McGreevey 48%, Bret Schundler 35%
June 2002: Bob Torricelli 44%, Douglas Forrester 36%
June 2004: John Kerry 46%, Bush 40%
June 2005: Corzine 47%, Forrester 37%
June 2006: Bob Menendez 43%, Tom Kean, Jr. 36%
June 2008: Frank Lautenberg 47%, Dick Zimmer 38%
June 2008: Barack Obama 45%, John McCain 39%