Quinnipiac

If support for independent candidate Christopher Daggett is soft, as indicated by this morning's Quinnipiac University poll, then the race for second choice among those who say they are likely to vote for Daggett remains important.  Republican Christopher Christie leads Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine 40%-33% among Daggett supporters who list a second choice.  Nearly six out of ten Daggett (39%) voters say they might change their mind before Election Day.

Bad news so far today for independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett: two new polls today having him just barely above the double digit mark as he rapidly hemorrhages 24 hours before voting begins.  The Quinnipiac poll has his favorables at 23%-17% -- nearly six out of ten New Jerseyans likely to vote on Tuesday (57%) still don't know who he is.  He's out of money, and has no party structure to turn out votes on Election Day. 

A new Quinnipiac University poll has Republican Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by two percentage points, 42%-40%, with 12% for independent Christopher Daggett.  Six percent remain undecided in a gubernatorial race that is just narrowly within the margin of error.

Four days ago, Corzine led 43%-38%, was 13% for Daggett.

Nearly four out of ten (38%) of Daggett supporters say they might change their mind: 39% list Corzine as their second choice, and 29% would go for Christie. 

"Daggett is the key to an incredibly close New Jersey election," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Christie leads 47%-32% among independents, with 17% for Daggett.

A new Quinnipiac University poll has Gov. Jon Corzine with a five point lead, 43%-38%, over Republican Christopher Christie - Corzine's first lead in nearly a year - with independent Christopher Daggett at 13%.

Two weeks ago, Quinnipiac put Christie ahead, 41%-40%, with 14% for Daggett.

"You could see it coming.   Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But don't be in a hurry to mark this election as over.   Christopher Daggett changed it from ‘ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap.   But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day.   Where will they go?"

Corzine continues to have upside-down job approvals: 39%-54%; the governor has an upside-down 29%-68% approval rating among independents.

Christie has increased his lead among independents and is now ahead 45%-30%, six points better than two weeks ago, with Daggett getting 20% of independents.  But Corzine has gained three points among Democrats and Christie has dropped four points among Republicans.  

Nearly four out of ten Daggett voters (38%) say they may change their mind, with 43% saying Christie is their second choice and 27% indicating a preference for Corzine.

"Can Daggett win?  More than two-thirds of New Jerseyans don't think so," Carroll added.

Quinnipiac University will release a new poll on the race for Governor on Wednesday morning.  Their last survey, on October 13, showed the race in a statistical dead heat: Christopher Christie 41%, Jon Corzine 40%, and Christopher Daggett 14%.

New Jerseyans are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the state today, according to today's Quinnipiac University poll. 32% are either "very satisfied" or "somewhat satisfied," while 67% of voters are either "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." 

Twelve years ago, the last time an incumbent governor ran for re-election, an October Quinnipiac poll said that 61% of New Jerseyans were either "very satisfied or somewhat satisfied" with life in the state, while 38% were either "somewhat dissatisfied" or "very dissatisfied." 

Gov. Jon Corzine's job approvals are upside-down, 39%-56%.  Among independents, his approvals are at 34%-62%.  Republican Christopher Christie leads him narrowly, 41%-40%, a number within the margin of error.

When Gov. Christine Todd Whitman ran for re-election in 1997, her October approvals were at 53%-43%; she was a 49%-47% among independents.  She had an eight-point lead, 45%-37%, over Democratic challenger James E. McGreevey.  Whitman won that race just narrowly, 47%-46%.

As he prepares to travel to New Jersey to campaign for Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, President Barack Obama has a 55%-40% approval rating among likely voters in this state, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. That’s about the same as he was two weeks ago (56%-39%), but below his 60% approval in July.

Obama’s approvals are at 86%-10% among Democrats, 52%-43% among independents, and not surprisingly, he’s upside-down among Republicans, 19%-76%.  He’s at 51%-45% among men, and 60%-36% among women.  He’s at 76%-19% in Essex and Hudson counties, 55%-41% in Bergen, Passaic, Union, Middlesex and Mercer counties, 64%-32% in South Jersey, and he’s upside down in northwestern New Jersey (45%-48%) and in the shore counties (44%-52%).

Nearly two-thirds of New Jersey voters, from every political spectrum and from ever region of the state, support merging local governments and school districts to reduce property taxes, 65%-28%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  

"Policy wonks always favor the idea of merging municipalities and school districts.  As property taxes soar, more and more voters agree," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  "The devil, of course, is in the details.  Let's see how many New Jersey politicians are willing to vote themselves or their friends out of a job."

New Jerseyans narrowly, 51%-43%, back state worker layoffs and furloughs to balance the budget.  The idea is opposed by Democrats (36%-56%) and supported by Republicans (60%-34%); independents support layoffs and furloughs of state employees by a 58%-37% margin.

But by a wide 69%-25% margin, voters want state employees to contribute more toward their health care benefits.  Even Democrats, by a 67%-28% margin, agree.

By a 61%-36% margin, voters oppose an increase in the gas tax to pay for road and mass transit improvements, and they oppose, by a 61%-35% margin, extending the sales tax to include legal fees and shore house rentals. 

"Broaden the sales tax to include things such as lawyer's fees and seashore rentals?   No way, say three fifths of New Jerseyans.  Raise gasoline taxes as independent Christopher Daggett suggested in the first governor's debate?   No way, again by more than 60 percent," Carroll says.

Voters are split 44%-46% on a question about teacher unions playing a positive or negative role.  Democrats say its positive (58%-29%), Republicans (57%-34%) and independents (56%-36%) say negative.

"Are teacher unions a positive or negative?   Voters are divided.   But they'd like to do a couple of things that the union opposes - put in merit pay for good teachers and make it easier to fire bad teachers," said Carroll.

New Jerseyans support merit pay increases for good teachers (70%-27%), support making it easier to fire a bad teacher (67%-28%), oppose school vouchers (52%-46%), and oppose charter schools (49%-42%).

New Jersey voters think their property taxes will go up regardless of who wins the race for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.  During Gov. Jon Corzine's second term, 62% of likely voters say their property taxes will go up, 5% say they will go down, and 30% believe property taxes will remain the same.  Among independents, 43% say their taxes will go up.

Just 46% of likely voters in Essex and Hudson think Corzine will raise property taxes, but 71% of New Jerseyans living in Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren say he will.  Likely voters in Northern and Central New Jersey (60%), in South Jersey (60%), and along the Jersey Shore (69%) think Corzine's second term will mean a property tax increase.

Republican Christopher Christie has upside-down favorables of 38%-40% in today's Quinnipiac poll.  That's down from 38%-38 on September 30.  The former U.S. Attorney was at 41%-30% on September 1, 42%-26% on August 11, and 39%-20% on July 14.

His favorables are at 39%-36% among Independents, 41%-37% among women, and upside-down, 34%-42%, among women.  Christie's favorables are at: 23%-35% in Essex/Hudson; 37%-40% in Bergen, Passaic, Union, Middlesex and Mercer counties; 42%-38% in Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren counties; upside-down at 33%-37% in South Jersey; and at a strong 48%-31% in Monmouth, Ocean and Atlantic.

Jon Corzine, the Democratic governor, has had upside-down favorables all year.  He's at 40%-53%, perhaps his best showing in 2009.  He had unfavorable of 58% in July, 54% in August, 57% on September 1, 56% on September 30, and 53% today.

The governor's favorables are upside-down, 32%-57% among Independents, upside-down 38%-56% among men, and upside-down 51%-42% among women.  Corzine's favorables are at 58%-33% in Essex/Hudson; upside-down 45%-48% in Bergen, Passaic, Union, Middlesex and Mercer counties; upside-down 27%-64% in Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren counties; just narrowly upside-down at 48%-49% in South Jersey; and at a weak upside-down 65%-28% in Monmouth, Ocean and Atlantic.

Christopher Daggett has statewide favorables of 19% and unfavorable of 7%; nearly three-quarters of New Jersey likely voters (73%) do not know who he is.  His favorables have gone up from 5%-2% in July, to 4%-3% in August, to 8%-4% on September 1, to 11%-3% on September 30, to 19%-7% today.