polls

Democratic U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican challenger Dick Zimmer by thirteen percentage points, 49%-36%, according to a Rasmussen Reports poll released today. A July 17, 2006 Quinnipiac poll had Republican Tom Kean, Jr. and incumbent Bob Menendez in a statistical dead heat: Kean 40%, Menendez 38%. A June 19, 2002 Quinnipiac poll had incumbent Bob Torricelli leading his GOP challenger, Douglas Forrester, 44%-36% And a July 27, 2000 Quinnipiac poll had Democrat Jon Corzine running twenty points ahead of Republican Bob Franks, 50%-30%. By Election Day, only the Corzine/Franks race was close.

Governor Jon Corzine can deal with his own sagging approval ratings – his numbers are much better than New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg was upside-down at a 37%-51% approval rating in 2004 and turned around to win re-election with relative ease in 2005.  His bigger problem is coming up over the next few months: Democratic legislators will be even less likely to support his toll hike plan now that they realize more than seven out of ten New Jersey voters oppose it.

Governor Jon Corzine’s new poll numbers, an upside-down 37%-52% rating, are worse than Governor James E. McGreevey’s upside-down 38%-47% approval rating in a Quinnipiac University poll released eight days before his resignation in 2004.  Corzine, then a United States Senator, had a 46%-28% approval rating in the same survey.

The Quinnipiac University poll shows the New Jersey Legislature with an upside-down 26%-54% approval rating. The Legislature is upside down 37%-42% among Democrats, 17%-67% among Republicans, and 22%-56% among Independents. And the Legislature is upside-down in every region of the state.

U.S. Senator Robert Menendez’s approval ratings have returned to being upside-down – 30%-31% -- his lowest approval rating since entering the Senate, according to a new poll released this morning by Quinnipiac University.  Menendez was at 34%-34% in December.  Menendez does not face voters until 2012.

Voters think Frank Lautenberg, who turned 84 last month,is too old to spend another six years in the U.S. Senate: Getty Images PhotoNearly 60% of New Jersey voters say that 84-year-old Frank Lautenberg is “too old to effectively serve another six-year term in the U.S. Senate,” according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning. Lautenberg has a 39%-31% job approval rating, but 40% of voters think he does not deserve re-election; 32% say he should return to the Senate.

Voters don't seem to like Gov. Jon Corzine or his toll hike planGov. Jon Corzine’s has an upside-down approval rating of 37%-52%, down from 46%--43% in December, and 73% of voters oppose his plan to raise tolls, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released this morning.

“Gov. Corzine’s toll hike proposal has smashed into a brick wall of massive voter opposition, causing his approval rating to drop from a three-point positive to a 15-point negative,” said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. “Even those who don’t drive on the toll roads don’t want toll hikes. Voter anger is so strong that less than a third think the Governor deserves re-election. Corzine’s problems are just made worse by the fact that two thirds of the voters are dissatisfied with the way things are going in New Jersey today,”

More than half of the New Jersey voters surveyed (51%) say that Corzine does not deserve to be re-elected next year, and just 32% says he should serve as second term. Voters split 35%-33% on their desire to vote for Corzine or an unnamed Republican.

Among Democrats, opposition to the toll hikes is at 63%-31%. Corzine’s approvals among Democrats stands at just 53%.

Can't wait to see what tomorrow's Quinnipiac poll will look like? Political observers say not to count on anything too exciting.

Gov. Jon Corzine's fiscal restructuring plan will remain unpopular. Corzine's approval rating will likely take a dip, although not a huge one. And Sen. Frank Lautenberg's numbers will probably remain somewhat anemic but not too threatening.

The one thing that's close to certain is that there won't be a bump in the Governor's numbers.

"You don't have to be James Carville to figure that out," said Assemblyman Joe Cryan, who chairs the state Democratic Party. "Without knowing it, I assume his numbers will have dipped. I assume that people won't like the plan because the press discussion, in all candor, has been on one point and not on all four."

But, Cryan said, the public will likely give Corzine credit for trying to "deliver a tough message."

Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama in each independent poll released over the last four days – but in many with slim margins:

Quinnipiac 48%-43%
Norcross 44%-38%
McClatchy/MSNBC 46%-39%
Monmouth/Gannett 50%-34%
Reuters/CSpan/Zogby 43%-43%
Mason Dixon 46%-39%
SurveyUSA 51%-39%
Rasmussen 49%-37%