poll

One week after winning just 77% in an essentially unopposed Democratic primary, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Gov. Jon Corzine continuing to struggle to win the approval of likely New Jersey voters.  He has an upside-down approval rating of 36%-56% -- the worst since he became Governor. 

Demographic and geographic breakdowns:

Independents: 27%-63%
Democrats: 59%-30%
Republicans: 15%-80%
Men: 34%-60%
Women: 37%-51%
White: 31%-62%
Black: 59%-30%
Essex/Hudson: 49%-44%
Bergen/Passaic/Union/Middlesex/Mercer: 41%-51%
Burlington/Camden/Gloucester/Salem/Cumberland/Cape May: 33%-56%
Monmouth/Ocean/Atlantic: 25%-68%.

Republican Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine in South Jersey by eight points, 48%-40%, in a new Quinnipiac University poll.  Quinnipiac defines South Jersey as Burlington, Camden, Cape May, Cumberland, Gloucester, and Salem counties.  

In the shore counties, defined as Atlantic, Ocean and Monmouth, Christie leads 59%-30%.  Corzine leads in Essex and Hudson, 57%-38%, and Christie has a 59%-35% lead in Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren.

In the region of the state that includes Bergen, Passaic, Union, Middlesex, and Mercer counties, Christie leads 45%-44% -- a statistical dead heat.

The Quinnipiac University poll on the 2009 race for Governor of New Jersey did not include any of the ten third party candidates, including Christopher Daggett, a former state Environmental Protection Commissioner and Reagan administration EPA official who has filed as an Independent candidate for Governor.  The poll, where Christopher Christie leads Jon Corzine, 50%-40%, gives one vote to someone else (presumably Independents), with 9% still undecided.

Daggett says he is weeks away from qualifying for state matching funds, which would give him at least $1 million to spend on his campaign for Governor.

Clay Richards, known to New Jersey political insiders as the Assistant Director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, is expected to retire this summer after a forty year career that included political reporting for UPI and Newsday.  Maurice Carroll, the poll director and a former New York Times reporter, is expected to accompany Richards on his final Quinnipiac poll news conference today. 

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie has a 10 point lead in the race for Governor, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll

Republican Christopher Christie has a ten point lead in the race for Governor against Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine, whose approvals have reached the worst in his governorship, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released early this morning.

Christie, the former U.S. Attorney, leads Corzine 50%-40% among likely voters. 

Corzine has an upside-down approval rating of 36%-56%.  He was at 38%-53% last month.  55% of voters say he does not deserve to be re-elected, while 37% say he does.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan says his own campaign polling shows him trailing Christopher Christie by just four percentage points

In a radio interview tonight, gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan called a Fairleigh Dickinson Poll that showed him trailing rival Chris Christie by 24 points in the Republican primary "retarded."

The poll was brought up by NJ 101.5 "Jersey Guys" host Casey Bartholomew, who used it to argue his point that Lonegan was unelectable.  When he heard Lonegan use the term "retarded", he checked to make sure he heard correctly.

"I said just that: retarded Fairleigh Dickinson poll," said Lonegan.

Fairleigh Dickinson pollster Peter Woolley, for his part, did not take offense at the comments.

"I have a great deal of respect for Mayor Lonegan, and not least of all because he is an alumnus of Fairleigh Dickinson University," he said.  "I wish him the best of fortune."

But on March 31, one of Lonegan's core supporters, conservative activist and blogger Michael Illions, posted a quick note on Conservatives with Attitude asking readers to be aware of the harm that can come from the derogatory use of the word "retard."

"Most people don't think of this word as hate speech, but that's exactly what it feels like to millions of people with intellectual disabilities, their families and friends," wrote Illions, who became an advocate for the disabled after his own son was diagnosed with hydrocephalus.  "Using ‘retard' as a term of derision is just as cruel and offensive as any other slur."

Lonegan's appearance on the show tonight was notable in light of Friday's tense exchange between Bartholomew and Christie.  Bartholomew told Christie that he could not trust him because he would not remove his friend and advisor, John Inglesino, from the campaign over his $3,000 a year job with state Sen. Joe Pennacchio (R-Montville), which kept Inglesino in the pension system after he lost reelection as a Morris County freeholder.

Six out of ten likely New Jersey Republican primary voters consider themselves pro-life, while 32% of Republicans identify themselves as pro-choice, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released this morning.  But among Republicans, 51% favor stem cell research, while 31% oppose it.

68% of GOP gubernatorial candidate Steven Lonegan's supporters say they are pro-life (and 27% are pro-choice), while Christopher Christie supporters are pro-life by a 57%-34% margin.

By a 63%-30% margin, Republicans likely to vote in tomorrow's primary election consider themselves pro gun ownership.  GOP voters favor school vouchers by a 62%-23% margin.   More than seven out of ten (72%) oppose marriage equality, while just 20% favor it. 

Among GOP primary voters, 60% call the U.S. invasion of Iraq the "right thing," while 29% say it was a mistake.  And 83% oppose closing the U.S. prison facility at Guantanamo, while 9% favor the closure.

According to the FDU survey, 91% of New Jersey Republican primary voters identify themselves as white.

Did you ever notice that polls seem to be subject to more journalistic skepticism than other numbers? Perhaps it's because there are so many polls available, and of such varying quality, that it's easy to compare and contrast differences.

On the other hand, nearly all other statistics - especially those from "official" sources - are accepted prima facie. For example, the media ran unquestioningly with a Social Security Administration story about the dramatic increase in baby boys being named Barack, although a simple journalistic inquiry would have quickly deflated that claim. Also, every press story about autism in New Jersey now includes the tag that New Jersey has the highest autism rate in the nation. However, this claim is based on a study that was done, not nationally, but in only 14 states - and even the comparability of those state results is suspect. (I'll be blogging more about this issue in a few weeks.)

Not that I'm arguing for less scrutiny of polls - far from it. My main concern is that while basic questions about all numbers go unasked before being reported to the public, it seems that only with polls do the media express doubt on the veracity of the numbers they themselves report, many times with banner headlines.

On NJN's Reporters Roundtable this past weekend, one panelist after another - including a reporter from Monmouth's own media partner - used the phrase, "if the polls are to be believed." They were discussing the New Jersey GOP gubernatorial primary and, specifically, Chris Christie's large lead over Steve Lonegan in polls released by Monmouth/Gannett and Quinnipiac last week.

Skepticism of election polls - as with any number provided for public consumption - is extremely healthy. Polls are designed to capture a snapshot of attitudes and behaviors at the time they are taken. And indeed, we tend to see a lot of consistency among reliable polls on "here-and-now" measures (e.g. a politician's job performance rating). However, polls are imperfect tools when asked to predict the future, such as an election outcome. Yet they work reasonably well and are the best tools we've got - so we use them.

In Quinnipiac University's general election matchup between Gov. Jon Corzine and former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, Christie leads 45%-38%:

Christopher Christie, who leads Steven Lonegan among Republican primary voters 56%-33%, leads among men 54%-39%, and among women 57%-25%, according to today's Quinnipiac University poll on the New Jersey GOP gubernatorial primary.