poll

New Jersey voters, by a 50%-15% margin, say they associate corruption with Democrats more than Republicans, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

More than nine out of then (93%) of New Jerseyans say government corruption is a "somewhat serious" or "very serious" problem and 65% of voters say the recent wave of corruption arrests embarrasses them as New Jersey residents.

"Is corruption a big problem?  Wow, is it!   Almost everyone in New Jersey thinks so.   And two thirds feel personally embarrassed to live in a state where politicians are pictured in handcuffs," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "More than half associate corruption with the Democratic party.  Almost a third say both parties share the blame.   Republicans pretty much get a pass."

Independent voters blame Democrats, 56%-9%, and even 28% of Democrats point the finger at their own party.

Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by nine points, 51%-42%, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters released this morning. 

In a July 15 poll, Christie led 53%-41%. 

With independent Christopher Daggett in the mix, Christie leads Corzine 46%-41%, with 7% for Daggett.  Christie led 47%-38% in July, with 8% for Daggett.

“Chris Christie has lost a little ground, but he’s still up nine points in the two-candidate matchup.  Third party candidate Christopher Daggett is going nowhere, but he makes the race interesting, eating into Christie’s lead and bringing the gap down to six points,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University poll.

Corzine has an upside-down job approval rating of 36%-58%, slightly better than where he was at a month ago, 33%-60%.

Corzine has upside-down favorable of 37%-54%; he was at 37%-48% last month. Christie's favorable are at 42%-26%; he was at 39%-20% a month ago. Daggett remains virtually unknown, with a 4%-3% favorable rating.

The two candidates for Lt. Governor are also largely unknown among likely voters.  Republican Kim Guadagno has a 7%-2% favorable rating, while Democrat Loretta Weinberg is at 11%-7%.

“If the Lieutenant Governor choices will make a difference, it hasn’t shown up yet," Carroll said.  "Hardly anyone has heard of Guadagno and Weinberg is far from a household name.”

Quinnipiac University will release a new poll on Tuesday morning featuring a head-to-head matchup between Jon Corzine and Christopher Christie, and new job approval numbers for Corzine.

A July 15 Quinnipiac poll had Christie leading by twelve points, 53%-41%. 

Tomorrow's poll will also discuss voter views toward corruption, and whether voters would prefer Corzine or Christie for a day at the beach.

Former Hillsborough Township Committeeman David Redlawsk will be the new Director of theEagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University

There is a generation of New Jersey politicians who like to reminisce about the old days, before the Internet, when the Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll was the one everyone talked about.  Old-time wags would go out late Saturday night to buy the Sunday edition if they knew a new Eagleton poll was on page one.

Over the last few years, the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling at Rutgers University lost its market share in the New Jersey polling business - and their Star-Ledger sponsorship.  Quinnipiac University is now the premier independent poll for state politics, followed by Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey, and Fairleigh Dickinson University.  Eagleton hasn't released a poll since October, and hasn't had a poll centered on New Jersey politics since November 2007.

Now Eagleton is seeking a return to the polling business, and has hired a former Democratic official from Hillsborough, David Redlawsk, to run their operation.  Redlawsk was serving his second term as a Township Committeeman when he resigned to become a political science professor at the University of Iowa.  In 2007, he became the Director of the University of Iowa Hawkeye poll.

The problem for Eagleton is that the partisan affiliation of their polling director is one of the reasons they have lost their standing as New Jersey's premier political pollster.  In 2004, Rutgers hired Jeffrey Levine, a political consultant whose firm polled for Democratic presidential candidate Richard Gephardt earlier that year and Democratic State Senate candidate Blair MacInnes the year before.  Levine's appointment triggered the resignation of Eagleton poll director Clifford Zukin, a Rutgers professor who says he quit because he didn't want to seek Eagleton become a Democratic or Republican polling shop.

As New Jersey Democrats prepare for a visit from a popular President, a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has Republican Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by eight points, 45%-37%, and suggests that Barack Obama's visit "may do little to help" Corzine win a second term.

Christopher Daggett, a former state Environmental Protection Commissioner running as an independent, is at 4%.

Just 54% of likely voters say they have definitely made up their minds, and if leaners are taken out of the numbers, Christie's lead goes to 37%-33% -- just a four point advantage.

Corzine's greatest problem is his favorability rating: upside-down at 38%-47%.  A January Monmouth/Gannett poll had Corzine at 49%-38%.

"There is evidence that Corzine's ratings have taken a hit from the state budget process.  On the other hand, the Democrat's decision to air an attack ad may be putting a dent in the Christie armor," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  "Favorability ratings tend to be leading indicators of where an election is headed.  At this stage, these numbers can be more meaningful to the campaigns than the horse race itself."

Christie has a 43%-24% favorable rating, but Murray says "there are some warning signs that the Republican should keep an eye on. "

"While the GOP nominee's favorable rating has remained basically steady since January, his unfavorable rating has climbed by 12 points," said Murray.

To get a true picture of where the New Jersey gubernatorial race stands right now, analysts and pollsters say you need to look past the horse race poll numbers and focus instead on some of the recent suveys' underlying questions.

While the head-to-head match ups demonstrate a clear trend of Republican Christopher Christie consistently leading incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine, they're malleable this early in the campaign, and fluctuations in that number- whether swings or incremental changes - should be taken with a grain of salt.  Voters, for the most part, do not start paying attention until September at the earliest.

"That's why the campaigns are paying attention to all the stuff underneath that: the favorability rating, the issue ratings," said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray, whose organization, along with Gannett New Jersey, is releasing its own poll on Thursday.

What's clear is that Governor Corzine faces enormous political problems, and that the public is clearly in an anti-incumbent mood.  But there is still time - especially given Corzine's huge monetary advantage - to close the gap with Christie.

In the Quinnipiac University poll released today, Murray said the most important number is the 40% of voters who don't know enough about Christie to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.  Although Christie's favorables remains net positive, there's plenty of room for his unfavorables to increase.

"That 40% who don't know Chris Christie hanging out there in this poll, that's got to leave his campaign worried," he said.

Pollsters got it wrong the last two times a Democratic Governor ran for re-election:  an August 1993 Eagleton-Rutgers poll had Gov. James Florio leading Republican Christine Todd Whitman by nine points, 49%-40%; and Republican Raymond Bateman led Gov. Brendan Byrne by seven points, 46%-39%, in an August 1977 Eagleton-Rutgers poll.

In 1993, Florio had a favorable/unfavorable rating of 49%-40%.  31% rated his job as excellent or good, 36% said he was a fair governor, and 23% rated him as poor.

In 1977, 28% of New Jerseyans viewed Byrne as an excellent or good governor, 39% considered him fair, and 29% said he was doing a poor job.

Whitman beat Florio 49%-48%, and Byrne was re-elected by a 56%-42% margin over Bateman.

Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine trails Republican Christopher Christie by 12 points, 53%-41%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  Christie is the first Republican to be over 50% in a summer poll since Thomas Kean ran for re-election 24 years ago.

Corzine has upside-down favorables/unfavorables of 34%-58%, and an upside-down job approval rating of 33%-60%. 

In his bid for re-election to the U.S. Senate, Democrat Robert Torricelli had upside-down favorable/unfavorable rating of 15%-36% and an upside-down job approval rating of 28%-49% in an August 2002 Quinnipiac poll. In an August 2008 Quinnipiac poll, President George W. Bush had an upside-down job approval rating of 26%-70%.

Christopher Christie, leading Gov. Jon Corzine 53%-41% in today's Quinnipiac University poll, is the first Republican in twelve years to lead in a statewide race in July, and is likely the first Republican since Thomas Kean, Sr. in 1985 to be at 50% during the summer.

Past Quinnipiac University polls:

July 1997: Christie Whitman 46%, James E. McGreevey 39%
June 2000: Corzine 46%, Bob Franks 26%
June 2000: Al Gore 45%, George W. Bush 40%
July 2001: McGreevey 48%, Bret Schundler 35%
June 2002: Bob Torricelli 44%, Douglas Forrester 36%
June 2004: John Kerry 46%, Bush 40%
June 2005: Corzine 47%, Forrester 37%
June 2006: Bob Menendez 43%, Tom Kean, Jr. 36%
June 2008: Frank Lautenberg 47%, Dick Zimmer 38%
June 2008: Barack Obama 45%, John McCain 39%

Bill Stepien, the campaign manager for GOP gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie, says a new Quinnipiac University poll that has his candidate with a twelve point lead, 53%-41%, shows that New Jersey voters don’t like Jon Corzine.

"Today's poll makes it harder for Jon Corzine to ignore what New Jerseyans have known all long - they don't want a governor who took away their property tax rebates, raised $1.2 billion in new taxes and watched as the state lost nearly 200,000 jobs,” Stepien said.  “New Jerseyans know Jon Corzine can throw a campaign rally and spend tens of his millions on misleading attack ads, but they also know our unemployment rate is 8.8% and climbing and our state has the highest tax burden in the country.  Unfortunately for Jon Corzine, New Jerseyans know a lot about a record he would rather forget."

A new Quinnipiac University poll shows President Barack Obama with a 60%-34% approval rating among likely voters in New Jersey, a slight drop from where he was last month.  Obama has a 54%-38% approval rating among Independents, 53%-41% among White voters, 86%-7% among Black voters, 53%-41% among men, 66%-29% among women, 90%-7% among Democrats, and 2%-71% among Republicans. 

Obama will be in New Jersey on Thursday to campaign for Gov. Jon Corzine's re-election.