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Christopher Christie has a three point lead in the race for Governor, leading Jon Corzine by a 43%-40% margin among likely voters with 8% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.

A Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday has Christie ahead by four points, 43%-39%, with 13% for Daggett.  A Monmouth poll last month had Christie up by eight points.

"New Jersey election followers should not be entirely surprised by this dynamic.  Democratic voters in New Jersey start paying attention later in the fall, causing the Republican candidate to lose ground," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "The question now is whether Chris Christie can stave off any more erosion of the poll lead he has held consistently since February,"

Corzine has an upside-down job approval rating of 37%-51%, about the same as last month.

Christie's favorables have dropped from 48%-30% to 41%-39%.  But Corzine continues to have upside-down favorables and is now at 40%-49%.

Murray says that politically independent women are a key factor in the narrowing of the gubernatorial race, with Corzine leading by a "statistically insignificant" 38%-37%.  Christie had a 28% lead among independent women in Monmouth's August poll.

"The great mammogram debate of 2009 seems to be winning converts among independent women.  While these voters had been giving their soft support to Christie based on discontent with the Corzine economic record, they appear to have beaten a hasty retreat when threats to their health care access were raised," said Murray.

In his 43%-39% lead over Jon Corzine in the new Quinnipiac University poll, Christopher Christie is leading 50%-34% among men, and trails 43%-37% among women.  Christie’s favorables among men are at 45%-38, while he is upside-down among women, 32%-28%, Corzine is upside-down at 32%-58% among men, and upside-down at 37%-53% among women. 

The race for governor is getting closer: a new Quinnipiac University poll shows Republican Christopher Christie with a four-point lead over Democrat Jon Corzine, 43%-39%, among likely voters. Independent Christopher Daggett is at 12%.

Christie led 47%-37%-9% on September 1, and 46%-40%-7% on August 7. 

Corzine continues to have upside-down approval ratings.  He's now at 36%-58%, just slightly better than the 34%-60% approval rating earlier this month.  His favorables are upside-down at 34%-56%, almost identical to his 34%-57% on September 1.

New Jerseyans are now split on Christie's favorables, 38%-38%.  He was at 41%-30% in the last poll. 

New Jersey voters split 38 - 38 percent in whether they have a favorable/unfavorable opinion of Christie, his worst measure of favorability so far.  More than eight out of ten voters (84%) still don't know much about Daggett, whose poll numbers have nearly doubled since August.

"Christopher Christie is still ahead in the Garden State, but when he looks in the rear-view mirror, he sees the bearded visage of Gov. Jon Corzine getting closer," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  "This race looks as if it will go down to the wire.   Does Christopher Daggett's impressive climb measure a swing to him or simply a distaste for the two guys hollering at each other?   Will Daggett fade on Election Day?   At this stage, his numbers matter."

Among independents, Christie leads Corzine 45%-32%, with 16% for Daggett.  On September 1, Christie led 46%-30%, with Daggett also at 16%.  Corzine's approvals among independents are also upside-down, 31%-61%.

Corzine has a 71%-10%-11% among Democrats, while Christie has a 83%-6%-9% lead among Republicans.

Quinnipiac University will release a new poll on the race for Governor on Wednesday morning.  A September 1 Quinnipiac poll showed Republican Christopher Christie leading Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine 47%-37% among likely voters, with Independent Christopher Daggett at 9%.  Christie led Corzine 46%-40% in Quinnipiac's August 11 survey.

Strategic Vision is expected to release a poll that shows Republican Christopher Christie with an eight point lead, 46%-38%, over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine.  Political Wire, a website that covers politics, reports that they had an advance look at the survey.  Independent Christopher Daggett is at 8%.

A July Strategic Vision poll had Christie ahead 53%-38%, with 5% for Daggett.

Republican Christopher Christie has a seven point lead over Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine among definite voters, 40%-33%, according to a new poll conducted by Neighborhood Research, a Republican firm headed by conservative Rick Shaftan.

Independent Christopher Daggett is at 7%.

Christie had a 44%-35% lead over Corzine in a poll released on Tuesday by a Democratic firm, Public Policy Polling. 

The Shaftan poll has Corzine's favorables upset down at 21%-50% among definite voters, while Christie is at 31%-25% and Daggett at 8%-1%. 

"Time is running out for the incumbent.  Christie's boost in favorables is not related to any advertising on either side, but support based on Christie being Corzine's only major opponent.  His #1 favorable now is ‘change' or ‘not Corzine' rather than his record as U.S. Attorney," Shaftan said.  "This indicates that voters are already starting to tune out Corzine and the incumbent is rapidly getting to a point where his advertising will have a very limited effect on public opinion."

The Christie message of “how can I do any worse” is starting to resonate with voters, Shaftan says.

"Despite the closeness of this race in the current ballot test, given Corzine's status as an incumbent, his high negatives and low favorables, undecided voters will shift heavily to Christie in the final days unless Corzine is able to change these numbers quickly," Shaftan said.

Shaftan said Corzine's "ace in the hole" is his ground operation and he holds a significant lead over Christie among those less likely to vote -- the natural targets of this operation.  He says Christie needs to "re-open a substantial lead with voters, and that appears very possible here."

"Democratic GOTV efforts will fail if it appears that Christie will win anyway," said Shaftan.  "Workers don't want to go to the wall for a candidate who's going to lose anyway."

Shaftan says the only good news for Corzine is that his liberal base coming home. 

"But even here, he is losing 13% of those voters to Daggett.  While Christie is not running any better with conservatives, these voters now represent 35% of the likely electorate versus 32% a month ago," Shaftan said.

If Democrats dropped Jon Corzine and ran Cory Booker or Frank Pallone, Republican Christopher Christie would still be ahead, according to a poll released today by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a North Carolina-based firm that polls for Democrats.

Christie leads Booker, the Mayor of Newark, by a 41%-33% margin, and has a 20-point lead over Pallone, a twelve-term Congressman, 43%-23%.  A PPP poll released on Tuesday has Christie leading Corzine 44%-35%, with 13% for Independent Christopher Daggett.

"In 2002 when New Jersey Democrats changed their Senate nominee it went from a likely loss to a relatively easy win almost instantly," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "But if they tried that this year it looks like they'd continue polling just as poorly as they already are."

Booker has a 41%-20% favorable rating statewide, while Pallone is upside-down at 14%-25%.

PPP surveyed 500 likely New Jersey voters from September 11-14 and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.

Democrats have a real problem in New Jersey, if a new poll released by Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina-based firm that polls mostly for Democratic candidates and Democratic-leaning interest groups, is correct.  The poll has President Barack Obama’s favorables upside-down among N.J. voters, 45%-48%.

The poll has New Jersey’s two Democratic United States Senators also upside-down: Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) has approvals of 38%-44%, and Robert Menendez (D-Hoboken) has approvals of 27%-40%. 

“There are more Obama voters in New Jersey now who don’t approve of him than there are (John) McCain voters who believe he’s doing a good job,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “This is the first time we’ve found that anywhere and it makes you wonder how effective Obama’s really going to be on behalf of Jon Corzine.”

The weirdest part of the poll: 21% of New Jerseyans believe Obama is not a natural born citizen, 19% say George W. Bush had advance knowledge of 9/11, and 8% say Obama is the Anti-Christ.

Republican Gov. Jodi Rell of Connecticut, the most popular Governor in the northeast, has an approval rating 59%-34%, down from 65%-30% in July, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  More than half the voters (56%) say Rell "copped out" by refusing to either sign or veto the state budget, and 52% disapprove of her handling of the budget.

"She has hit an all-time low, although neighboring governors would love to have those numbers," said Dr. Douglas Schwartz, Quinnipiac University Poll Director.  Democratic governors in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania have worse numbers.

Former U.S. Attorney Chris Christie has an 8 point lead, according to a new poll released today.

Christopher Christie has a nine point lead in the race for Governor, 44%-35% over incumbent Jon Corzine, with Independent Christopher Daggett at 13%, according to a poll released by the North Carolina-based Public Policy Polling.  The firm polls mostly for Democratic candidates.

Corzine's favorables are upside-down at 33%-56, while Christie is at 45%-41%

The poll has Christie leading 48%-29% among independents; 74% of independents have an unfavorable view of Corzine.  Corzine is at just 64% among Democrats.

"It's unlikely at this point that Corzine's going to be able to convince voters to pick him because they like him," said Tom Jensen, a spokesman for the poll.  "And while his initial salvos against Christie have helped tighten the race, it hasn't been nearly enough."