poll

A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Republican Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by two points, 41%-39%, with 11% for independent Christopher Daggett.  

Rasmussen had Christie ahead 45%-41% in their October 15 poll, with Daggett at 11%.

Rasmussen’s release says that “Christie’s edge in the race has been fading rapidly” – a development unsurprising in light of the New Jersey Democrats’ history of catching up or taking a lead in the polls closer to election day.  

“Adding to the challenge this year, Corzine is expected to heavily outspend Christie during the final days which could be a game-changing factor,” wrote the pollster.

A referendum for approval of $400 million bond issue to fund open space preservation water supply and flood plain protection, and farmland and historic preservation projects, leads 55%-32%, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll.  Former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan announced last week that he would lead a campaign to defeat the proposal.

The initiative leads 68%-19% among Democrats and 50%-37% among Independents; it trails 40%-46% among Republicans.  Voters who say they will support Gov. Jon Corzine favor the bond issue 70%-18%, while voters backing Republican Christopher Christie oppose the public question by a wide 34%-51% margin.  Daggett supporters also support the referendum, 63%-26%.

Among likely voters who are undecided in the race for Governor, 61% say they support the bond issue and 22% oppose it. 

The three top candidates for Lt. Governor are of no consequence in the 2009 gubernatorial election, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today. 

Democrat Loretta Weinberg, a State Senator from Bergen County and a seventeen-year veteran of the Legislature, is unknown to 80% of likely voters and has statewide favorables of 11%-9%.  She is as unknown to Democrats as she is to Independents and Republicans.

Republican Kim Guadagno, the Monmouth County Sheriff, has statewide favorables of 9%-4%, but 87% of likely voters don't know who she is.  94% of undecided voters don't recognize her name.

Independent Frank Esposito, a retired Kean University professor, is unrecognized by 90% of likely voters.  He has favorables of 6%-4%.  Nearly 90% of those voting for his running mate don't know him.

A new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll has Gov. Jon Corzine and Christopher Christie tied at 39%, with independent Christopher Daggett third at 14%.  Corzine leads in North Jersey, 40%-38%, Christie leads 42%-36% in Central Jersey, and the candidates are tied at 39% in South Jersey.  Daggett runs best in Central Jersey (16%), and is at 13% in the North and 14% in the South.

Christie is getting 81% of the Republicans and Corzine receives 76% of the Democrats.  Christie has 45% of the independent vote, with Daggett at 22% and Corzine running third with 21%.  Daggett gets 11% of the Democrats, and 8% of the Republicans.

Corzine is winning women, 43%-39%, while Christie leads 40%-34% among men.  White voters favor Christie, 45%-32%, while Corzine leads 66%-17% among Blacks and Hispanics.  Daggett is at 9% among Blacks and Hispanics, below his statewide averages.

The gubernatorial race is tied, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett poll.

The poll shows Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie each getting 39%, while independent Christopher Daggett gets 14%.

A Monmouth poll from the beginning of this month showed Christie ahead of Corzine by three points - 43% to 40% -- with Daggett taking 8% of the vote.

Today's poll found that once reluctant Democrats are sticking with Corzine, but there may be some base trouble for Christie with the Republican base.  Christie had 86% of Republicans' support in the poll released early in the month and has 81% of the base in todays.  Corzine, who in July had 71% of Democrats' support, now has 76%.

A new Rasmussen Reports poll has Republican Christopher Christie with a four point lead over Gov. Jon Corzine, 45%-41%, with 9% for independent Christopher Daggett.

Rasmussen says the race might be all about Daggett, who gained three points over the last week while Christie has lost two and Corzine is down three. 

"The race may be even closer than those numbers suggest. When voters are asked their initial choice, 38% name Christie, 38% Corzine, and 16% prefer Daggett. But 57% of Daggett's supporters say they could change their minds before Election Day," Rasmussen said.  "That dwarfs the number of swayable Corzine and Christie voters."

Among Corzine supporters, 27% say they might still change their minds, while 20% of Christie supporters say the same. 

"A plurality of swayable Daggett supporters and undecided voters indicate they are likely to end up voting for Christie," Rasmussen said.

As he prepares to travel to New Jersey to campaign for Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, President Barack Obama has a 55%-40% approval rating among likely voters in this state, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. That’s about the same as he was two weeks ago (56%-39%), but below his 60% approval in July.

Obama’s approvals are at 86%-10% among Democrats, 52%-43% among independents, and not surprisingly, he’s upside-down among Republicans, 19%-76%.  He’s at 51%-45% among men, and 60%-36% among women.  He’s at 76%-19% in Essex and Hudson counties, 55%-41% in Bergen, Passaic, Union, Middlesex and Mercer counties, 64%-32% in South Jersey, and he’s upside down in northwestern New Jersey (45%-48%) and in the shore counties (44%-52%).

Nearly two-thirds of New Jersey voters, from every political spectrum and from ever region of the state, support merging local governments and school districts to reduce property taxes, 65%-28%, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.  

"Policy wonks always favor the idea of merging municipalities and school districts.  As property taxes soar, more and more voters agree," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.  "The devil, of course, is in the details.  Let's see how many New Jersey politicians are willing to vote themselves or their friends out of a job."

New Jerseyans narrowly, 51%-43%, back state worker layoffs and furloughs to balance the budget.  The idea is opposed by Democrats (36%-56%) and supported by Republicans (60%-34%); independents support layoffs and furloughs of state employees by a 58%-37% margin.

But by a wide 69%-25% margin, voters want state employees to contribute more toward their health care benefits.  Even Democrats, by a 67%-28% margin, agree.

By a 61%-36% margin, voters oppose an increase in the gas tax to pay for road and mass transit improvements, and they oppose, by a 61%-35% margin, extending the sales tax to include legal fees and shore house rentals. 

"Broaden the sales tax to include things such as lawyer's fees and seashore rentals?   No way, say three fifths of New Jerseyans.  Raise gasoline taxes as independent Christopher Daggett suggested in the first governor's debate?   No way, again by more than 60 percent," Carroll says.

Voters are split 44%-46% on a question about teacher unions playing a positive or negative role.  Democrats say its positive (58%-29%), Republicans (57%-34%) and independents (56%-36%) say negative.

"Are teacher unions a positive or negative?   Voters are divided.   But they'd like to do a couple of things that the union opposes - put in merit pay for good teachers and make it easier to fire bad teachers," said Carroll.

New Jerseyans support merit pay increases for good teachers (70%-27%), support making it easier to fire a bad teacher (67%-28%), oppose school vouchers (52%-46%), and oppose charter schools (49%-42%).

New Jersey voters think their property taxes will go up regardless of who wins the race for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.  During Gov. Jon Corzine's second term, 62% of likely voters say their property taxes will go up, 5% say they will go down, and 30% believe property taxes will remain the same.  Among independents, 43% say their taxes will go up.

Just 46% of likely voters in Essex and Hudson think Corzine will raise property taxes, but 71% of New Jerseyans living in Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren say he will.  Likely voters in Northern and Central New Jersey (60%), in South Jersey (60%), and along the Jersey Shore (69%) think Corzine's second term will mean a property tax increase.

Republican Christopher Christie has upside-down favorables of 38%-40% in today's Quinnipiac poll.  That's down from 38%-38 on September 30.  The former U.S. Attorney was at 41%-30% on September 1, 42%-26% on August 11, and 39%-20% on July 14.

His favorables are at 39%-36% among Independents, 41%-37% among women, and upside-down, 34%-42%, among women.  Christie's favorables are at: 23%-35% in Essex/Hudson; 37%-40% in Bergen, Passaic, Union, Middlesex and Mercer counties; 42%-38% in Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren counties; upside-down at 33%-37% in South Jersey; and at a strong 48%-31% in Monmouth, Ocean and Atlantic.

Jon Corzine, the Democratic governor, has had upside-down favorables all year.  He's at 40%-53%, perhaps his best showing in 2009.  He had unfavorable of 58% in July, 54% in August, 57% on September 1, 56% on September 30, and 53% today.

The governor's favorables are upside-down, 32%-57% among Independents, upside-down 38%-56% among men, and upside-down 51%-42% among women.  Corzine's favorables are at 58%-33% in Essex/Hudson; upside-down 45%-48% in Bergen, Passaic, Union, Middlesex and Mercer counties; upside-down 27%-64% in Morris, Somerset, Hunterdon, Sussex and Warren counties; just narrowly upside-down at 48%-49% in South Jersey; and at a weak upside-down 65%-28% in Monmouth, Ocean and Atlantic.

Christopher Daggett has statewide favorables of 19% and unfavorable of 7%; nearly three-quarters of New Jersey likely voters (73%) do not know who he is.  His favorables have gone up from 5%-2% in July, to 4%-3% in August, to 8%-4% on September 1, to 11%-3% on September 30, to 19%-7% today.