poll

A new Quinnipiac University poll has Republican Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine by two percentage points, 42%-40%, with 12% for independent Christopher Daggett.  Six percent remain undecided in a gubernatorial race that is just narrowly within the margin of error.

Four days ago, Corzine led 43%-38%, was 13% for Daggett.

Nearly four out of ten (38%) of Daggett supporters say they might change their mind: 39% list Corzine as their second choice, and 29% would go for Christie. 

"Daggett is the key to an incredibly close New Jersey election," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Christie leads 47%-32% among independents, with 17% for Daggett.

Quinnipiac University will release their final poll of the 2009 gubernatorial campaign on Monday morning.

A Stockton College poll conducted by Zogby International, shows the
race for governor in a statistical dead heat, with Democrat Jon Corzine
leading Republican Christopher Christie, 40%-39%, with 14% for
independent Christopher Daggett.

Among independents, Christie leads 39%-26%, with 23% for Daggett.

"Less
than a week from the election, only a third of likely voters (34%) say
they would like to see Governor Corzine reelected," said Hughes Center
Executive Director Sharon Schulman. "The majority (59%) want someone
new, including 30% of likely Democratic voters and 70% of Independents
and unaffiliated voters."

 "This is a bad political
environment for an incumbent nationally, but even worse considering New
Jersey's enormous budget problems.  That said, for many voters the
incumbent Governor may be the lesser of two evils and New Jersey has
historically given Democrats the benefit of the doubt," said pollster
John Zogby.  "Both Corzine and Christie have been unsparing with their
attacks and the surprising rise of Chris Daggett is a testament to how
ineffectual both parties have been at appealing to voters.  Daggett's
performance should serve as a warning to Republicans and Democrats.  If
Daggett can surge and get nearer to 20 percent of the vote, we may see
more third party candidates emerge in 2010."

A new Quinnipiac University poll has Gov. Jon Corzine with a five point lead, 43%-38%, over Republican Christopher Christie - Corzine's first lead in nearly a year - with independent Christopher Daggett at 13%.

Two weeks ago, Quinnipiac put Christie ahead, 41%-40%, with 14% for Daggett.

"You could see it coming.   Gov. Jon Corzine's numbers crept steadily up and Christopher Christie's steadily shrank and now, for the first time, we have Corzine ahead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But don't be in a hurry to mark this election as over.   Christopher Daggett changed it from ‘ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap.   But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day.   Where will they go?"

Corzine continues to have upside-down job approvals: 39%-54%; the governor has an upside-down 29%-68% approval rating among independents.

Christie has increased his lead among independents and is now ahead 45%-30%, six points better than two weeks ago, with Daggett getting 20% of independents.  But Corzine has gained three points among Democrats and Christie has dropped four points among Republicans.  

Nearly four out of ten Daggett voters (38%) say they may change their mind, with 43% saying Christie is their second choice and 27% indicating a preference for Corzine.

"Can Daggett win?  More than two-thirds of New Jerseyans don't think so," Carroll added.

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 46%-43% -- a statistical dead heat -- with independent Christopher Daggett dropping to 7%, according to a new Rasmussen Reports poll released today.

Last week, Rasmussen had Christie ahead 41%-39%, with Daggett at 11%. 

“The decline in support for Daggett comes in a week when several state newspapers endorsed Christie or Corzine, but none followed the Star-Ledger’s lead and came out in favor of the independent candidate,” Rasmussen said.  “Additionally, Christie began a new ad campaign linking Corzine and Daggett.”

Corzine’s favorables are still upside-down, 41%-57%, the same as last week.  Christie is also around the same, 49%-49%.  40% of likely voters have a “very unfavorable” view of Corzine; for Christie, it’s 27%.

Daggett, a former state Commissioner of Environmental Protection, has favorables of 42%-40%.  His unfavorables are up eight points since last week and thirteen points over the last two weeks.

Christie has an eight-point lead among voters who say they are certain to vote and his supporters are less likely to change their minds, the poll says.  Corzine does better among registered voters who are less likely to turnout – which may be why President Obama and former President Bill Clinton are returning to New Jersey for the second time in as many weeks.

Republican Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 42%-38%, with 13% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a new survey conducted by Public Policy Polling (PPP), a North Carolina-based firm that works primarily for Democrats.  Christie's lead is just fractionally above the margin of error.

Two weeks ago, PPP had the race in a statistical dead heat, with Christie ahead of Corzine 40%-39% and 13% for Daggett.   According to previous polls, Daggett was taking more votes from Christie than he was from Corzine; now Daggett's voters, by a 44%-32% margin, say that Corzine would be their second choice. 

Among independents, Christie leads Corzine 44%-25%, with 24% for Daggett.  Christie has 51%-40% favorables among independents, while Corzine is upside-down at 24%-70%.  Daggett's favorables with independents are 37%-32%.

"This race is going right down to the wire," said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. "The Daggett voters seem to be pretty volatile so if they go back to the Corzine camp he'll have a good shot of pulling it out. The campaign that does the better job of turning out its voters will win."

The poll has Daggett's negatives climbing: his favorables were at 30%-24% on October 13; now he's upside-down at 31%-36%.  His increased negatives come largely from Republicans.

Corzine continues to have upside-down favorables: 33%-60%.  Christie is nearly even: 45%-44%.

Pollster Patrick Murray says that the turnout model on a Suffolk University poll released this morning is based on a 93% turnout in a race where less than half of the state's registered voters will turn out.  The poll, which included all twelve candidates for governor, has Gov. Jon Corzine leading Republican Christopher Christie 42%-33% among likely voters, with 7% for independent Christopher Daggett.

The full text of Murray's statement:

An Eagleton-Rutgers poll shows the state's $400 million bond referendum in a statistical dead heat among likely voters, with 43% opposed to passage and 41% prepared to vote yes.  These numbers are substantially different from a Monmouth University/Gannett poll released earlier this week showing support for the ballot initiative at 55%-32%.

"It is rare to see such significant differences in two polls taken at nearly the same time," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll.  In this case, however, the difference is in the way the question was asked. When voters are cued to the idea that a bond issue means borrowing money they are far less supportive than when simply told that bonds will be issued."

The Eagleton question: "Voters will decide whether New Jersey should borrow $400 million to preserve open space, farmland, and historic areas. Do you plan to vote for or against borrowing this money?" Other polls have asked voters simply if they support "bonding" for open space without specifying that bonding means borrowing money."

"There is no right or wrong way to ask this question," said Redlawsk. "Voters are clearly very sensitive to the idea of borrowing money in a recession. At the same time, New Jersey voters have generally been supportive efforts to protect open space. Placed against each other, these differing results show that the outcome will depend on how voters view the question when they enter the voting booth."

Voters in major urban areas support the bond issue, 48%-35%, while South Jersey and shore area voters oppose it 51%-35%.  Suburban and rural voters are split, 42%-40%.

"Perhaps not surprisingly, those who live in the most densely populated parts of the state are generally in favor of this referendum, while those in the least populated areas are clearly opposed, at least when they are reminded that bond issues require borrowing money," said Redlawsk.

A WABC-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA has the race for Governor in a statistical dead heat among likely voters: Republican Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine 41%-39%.  Christopher Daggett, one of ten independent candidates, is at 19%.

Last week, SurveyUSA had Christie ahead 40%-39%, with Daggett at 14%.

“SurveyUSA's tracking graphs are flat. Corzine has not polled more than 40% nor less than 39%. Christie has not polled more than 43% nor less than 40%. Of likely 2009 voters who voted for Corzine in 2005, just 60% stick with him today. 18% of 2005 Corzine voters today cross over to Republican Christie; 21% vote for the Independent,” SurveyUSA said in their poll analysis.

Christie leads 40%-38%-20% in North Jersey, 46%-40%-13% in Central Jersey, and 38%-38%-22% in South Jersey.

The race for Governor is a statistical tie, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released this morning showing Gov. Jon Corzine leading Republican Christopher Christie 39%-36% among likely voters, with 20% for independent Christopher Daggett.  The margin of error is +/- 4%.

Corzine is running third among independents, with 27%; Christie leads Daggett 35%-31%.

"While Jon Corzine has made up a lot of ground in all the polls since last summer, he has not done it by increasing his support. Instead, Chris Christie has lost support as some voters who are opposed to Corzine have become attracted to Chris Daggett," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll. "Even so, it is important to note that Corzine's lead in this poll is within the margin of error and if the election were today, the winner would be the candidate who can best rally his troops. We don't know now who that will be."

Corzine has upside-down favorables of 40%-52% and Christie is upside down, 39%-42%.  Dagget is at 31%-15%.  But more than half of the likely voters polled are unfamiliar with Daggett.

The poll shows Corzine benefits by increased support for Daggett, who appears to be taking votes from Christie.  When asked how they would vote in a two-way race, 37% of Daggett supporters say they did not know or might not vote; 34% went for Christie and 28% for Corzine.