Peter Woolley

Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind poll today shows Gov. Jon Corzine at 43%, Republican Chris Christie at 41% and independent Chris Daggett at 8%.

Corzine’s slight lead over Christie is within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3%.  

Poll Director Peter Woolley said that the 8% of Daggett supporters volunteered his name, although the interviewers did ID Daggett before they asked the head-to-head matchup question.

“Voters were reminded of his name before they were asked,” said Woolley.

The pollster dropped the head-to-head question that included Daggett's name.  

The results include those from the last FDU poll, which was released Friday, and include four additional days.  On Friday, the poll showed Corzine with a statistically insignificant one point lead over Chrisite, and Daggett at 6% from voters volunteering his name (when Daggett’s name was mentioned, he got 14% of the vote and Christie led Corzine by a statistically insignificant 2% -- 41% to 39%).  

Most polls showed the gubernatorial race as a dead heat, but Quinnipiac (the big one)  showed Gov. Jon Corzine leading Chris Christie by 5%.  According to the New York Times, Corzine stood by the dead asset monetization plan he proposed two years ago, giving Republicans perfect political ammunition (Corzine argued that the paper got it wrong).  Corzine brought in Bill Clinton again.  Eleven day pre-election reports show Corzine outspending Christie three to one.  Independent Chris Daggett had to deal with the conspiracy theory that he is in the race to intentionally spoil it for Christie.  A focus group found that voters like Daggett, but don’t want to vote for someone they think will lose.  And the Phillies beat the Yankees in the first game of the World Series.

So who won the final full week before the election?  Four out of our five panelists said there was no clear victor, while one awarded the win to Corzine.

A Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released today shows Republican Christopher Christie leading Gov. Jon Corzine 41%-39% -- a statistical dead heat - with independent Christopher Daggett at 14%.

"At this point, anyone who says their vote doesn't count is mistaken," said FDU political scientist and poll director Peter Woolley.  . "And no one knows that better than the campaigns."

The horse race numbers for Corzine and Christie are exactly the same as in an FDU poll released on October 6. 

When Daggett's name is read to the respondents, he gets14% support and actually draws more from Corzine than Christie, giving Christie a two point lead over Corzine, 41% to 39%.  When an obscure independent candidate's name is read - in this case Gary Steele - he gets 3% of the vote and Corzine leads Christie by a more significant 46% to 41%. 

In a two way race, Corzine leads 44%-43%, with 6% volunteering Daggett's name.

Corzine's approval rating remains upside down, at 37% approve to 52% disapprove - virtually unchanged since the summer (his favorables are 37% favorable to 54% unfavorable).  But Christie's favorables are also upside down, with 41% of respondents viewing him favorably and 44% viewing him unfavorably. 

Daggett is the only major candidate whose favorables are right side up, and only 18% of voters have not heard of him - down from 50% earlier this month and 67% in September.  He is seen favorably by 28% of voters and unfavorably by 23%. 

Chris Daggett won the endorsement of the Star-Ledger, and later complained about the Republican Governors Association's ads against him.  It was revealed that Chris Christie went over the Justice Department’s hotel budget when he was U.S. Attorney.  An email surfaced asking Governor Corzine’s cabinet to “get creative” in showing how Corzine’s economic policies are working – even if it’s a “stretch.”  Polls continue to show a deadlocked race between Corzine and Christie.

So who won the week?  Our panel of experts was divided.

Two non-partisan polls came out showing Jon Corzine closing the gap with Chris Christie.  Independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett laid out a detailed plan to cut property taxes.  South Jersey was victorious in the senate leadership contest, toppling the most popular political figure in the state from the senate presidency, but with no apparent effect (so far) on the gubernatorial race.  It looks like Assemblywoman Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) will by the new speaker.  And Christie, Corzine and Daggett had their first debate.  

So who won the week?  Daggett, according to all but one academic PolitickerNJ.com asked. 

It wasn’t the most exciting week in New Jersey gubernatorial politics.  The unemployment rate went up again.  Governor Corzine touted a decrease in uninsured New Jerseyans.  A Monmouth University poll showed Chris Christie ahead of Corzine, but his leadshrank from the previous month.  Corzine agreed to do a debate on a jazz format public radio station, but avoided 101.5fm and the League of Women Voters/ABC televised debates.  Jeb Bush turned up unexpectedly at a Christie fundraiser (although they had a name tag ready for him).   And Chris Daggett said he’ll sue over ballot position. 

Still, this close to the election, everything counts. So who won the week? 

Gov. Jon Corzine and former CWA president Carla Katz

Carla Katz’s name has surfaced in the gubernatorial contest, but it’s not coming from Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie.  

Even in light of potentially damaging news accounts about Christie’s loan to high ranking U.S. Attorney staffer Michele Brown, his campaign has no plans to hit back by raising Governor Corzine’s relationship with the former leader of the state’s largest public workers’ union, who he dated before becoming governor.  .

“Chris has made a real effort to run a different kind of campaign and has from the very beginning stipulated that this will be a campaign about the issues,” said Christie advisor Maria Comella.  “In a state that is facing the highest unemployment in 32 years the highest tax burden and a 32% up-tick in home foreclosures, these are the issues that voters are going to go into the booth to make a decision on in November, and they’re exactly what Chris is going to be talking about.”  

In a February, Christie told The Record’s Chares Stile “you won't hear anything about Carla Katz and e-mails out of me and or out of my campaign.” 

Republican Chris Christie leads incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in the race for governor by six points, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released this morning.

Christie leads Corzine 45% to 39% -- a slight decrease in Christie’s margin since of the last FDU survey in April, which put him ahead by 9%.  

 “Even though it’s early in the campaign, it is remarkable that a Republican is running ahead in New Jersey,” said FDU political science professor and poll director Peter Woolley.

Corzine’s favorability rating and approval rating are both upside down --  31% favorable to 54% unfavorable, and 36% approval to 49% disapproval.  But his numbers are particularly problematic among Democrats, 48% of whom see him favorably and 37% of whom have an unfavorable impression of him.    Sixty-six percent of Democratic voters say they’ll support Corzine, while 20% prefer Christie and 13% are undecided.  

“The governor’s key weakness right now is among Democrats,” said Woolley. 

Frank Lautenberg leads Dick Zimmer 50%-34% in the race for U.S. Senate: Getty Images Photo
The election is less than a month away, but 71% of New Jersey voters have still not heard of or have no opinion of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dick Zimmer, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released today.

The poll of 760 likely voters puts incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg ahead of Zimmer 50% to 34%. 14% of voters are undecided.

“Zimmer jumped late into a fractious primary and won, but he has gotten no traction since,” said pollster Peter Woolley.

The race for New Jersey's fifteen electoral votes is no longer close, with Barack Obama leading John McCain 50%-37%, according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released today.  A September FDU poll showed Obama with a six point lead.

“To be competitive in New Jersey, McCain needed to make a strong play for voters dissatisfied with the results of the Democratic primary.  That simply has not happened.” ” said Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson and a survey analyst for the PublicMind poll. "(Vice presidential candidate Sarah) Palin, rather than providing either reassurance or consistency for the Republican message, has provided the political equivalent of a roller coaster ride. It’s a lot of excitement but not something you want to experience all the time.”

The poll shows that Democrats who backed Hillary Clinton over Obama in the February 5 New Jersey primary are just as likely as other Democrats to be voting for Obama. Voters who said Palin is a good choice for vice-president declined to 34% from 47% in early September. Those saying Palin is not a good choice increased to 54% from 34% in early September.

Obama has a double-digit lead even though voters are  almost twice as likely to say that McCain (53%) rather than Obama (27%) has the background and experience necessary to be president. Obama trumps McCain by a two-to-one margin on the question of which candidate understands the needs of average people.