Peter Woolley

Frank Lautenberg leads Dick Zimmer 50%-34% in the race for U.S. Senate: Getty Images Photo
The election is less than a month away, but 71% of New Jersey voters have still not heard of or have no opinion of Republican U.S. Senate candidate Dick Zimmer, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released today.

The poll of 760 likely voters puts incumbent Democrat Frank Lautenberg ahead of Zimmer 50% to 34%. 14% of voters are undecided.

“Zimmer jumped late into a fractious primary and won, but he has gotten no traction since,” said pollster Peter Woolley.

The race for New Jersey's fifteen electoral votes is no longer close, with Barack Obama leading John McCain 50%-37%, according to a new Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released today.  A September FDU poll showed Obama with a six point lead.

“To be competitive in New Jersey, McCain needed to make a strong play for voters dissatisfied with the results of the Democratic primary.  That simply has not happened.” ” said Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson and a survey analyst for the PublicMind poll. "(Vice presidential candidate Sarah) Palin, rather than providing either reassurance or consistency for the Republican message, has provided the political equivalent of a roller coaster ride. It’s a lot of excitement but not something you want to experience all the time.”

The poll shows that Democrats who backed Hillary Clinton over Obama in the February 5 New Jersey primary are just as likely as other Democrats to be voting for Obama. Voters who said Palin is a good choice for vice-president declined to 34% from 47% in early September. Those saying Palin is not a good choice increased to 54% from 34% in early September.

Obama has a double-digit lead even though voters are  almost twice as likely to say that McCain (53%) rather than Obama (27%) has the background and experience necessary to be president. Obama trumps McCain by a two-to-one margin on the question of which candidate understands the needs of average people.

Sen. Frank Lautenberg and Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama: Getty Images Photo
Evidence of John McCain’s convention bounce might have turned up in New Jersey, but that momentum hasn’t translated to former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer’s U.S. Senate campaign. 

According to a Fairleigh Dickinson PublicMind poll released today, incumbent Frank Lautenberg (D-Cliffside Park) leads Zimmer 46% to 35%. 

That’s roughly the same margin that Zimmer has trailed Lautenberg by in several other polls taken during the summer. 

“All of the attention has been on the national race,” said FDU pollster Peter Woolley.  “And both of the state’s U.S. Senate candidates have been off-stage in this year’s presidential drama.”

With two months to go before the June primary, most people still don’t know who any of the Republican Senate candidates are.

According to a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll released this morning, state Sen. Joe Pennacchio is the most recognized of the Republicans, with 77% of voters unable to recognize him. 84% of respondents didn’t know who Murray Sabrin was, while Andrew Unanue was unknown to 90%.

Democratic incumbent Frank Lautenberg is recognized by 85% of respondents.

The numbers slightly improved for the Republicans amongst Republican respondents. 29% have heard of Pennacchio, compared to Sabrin’s 18% and Unanue’s 12%.

Jon Corzine 48%
Doug Forrester 44%

Over the weekend, Fairleigh Dickinson University’s PublicMind re-interviewed likely voters who were undecided in the past two weeks. Based on those interviews, PublicMind cannot say that undecided voters are breaking decisively for either major candidate; however, undecided Democratic voters break clearly for Corzine; undecided Republican voters break clearly for Forrester. “In a race that’s been extremely negative, people will vote by default for their usual party preference or just stay home,� said Peter Woolley, director of the poll. “But note too that all the polls suggest a repeat of last year’s racial divide: that the Republican candidate runs competitively or ahead of the Democrat among white voters and runs way behind among non-white voters.�

Jon Corzine 43%
Doug Forrester 41%

Half (49%) of New Jersey's voters say the state is off on the wrong track. But they don't necessarily conclude that the Republicans have the answer. According to the most recent Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll, 57% of likely voters rate Governor Codey's performance as good or excellent; 43% say they'll vote for Democratic candidates for the state assembly while only 33% say they'll vote for Republican candidates; and in the race for governor, Democrat Jon Corzine leads by a margin of 44% to 36% over Republican Doug Forrester, with 10% unsure and 4% scattered among "other" candidates. When leaners are included, Corzine’s margin over Forrester grows to 48% to 38%.