Peter Wooley

Miles Winder, right, is working for independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett. Some observers say Daggett will play a key role in the outcome of the race for governor between Jon Corzine and Chris Christie

Some political insiders view independent Christopher Daggett as a potential spoiler in the race for Governor.

"I think the race has come down to Daggett," said Newark South Ward leader Carl Sharif, a Democrat and a Corzine supporter. "With Chris Christie and Jon Corzine even (most recent polls register the candidate in the 40% range), the question becomes whether Daggett's 12 to 14 percent is solid support. If it's hard support, Corzine wins. If its soft support, and those voters peel off Daggett in the voting booth, most polls show they're going to vote for anybody but Corzine, and that's where Corzine could have problems. That's where Christie wins."

Democrats like Sharif figure that as long as Daggett's support holds and he drains Christie's independent voter support in southern Morris, Somerset and Hunterdon counties, Democrats can win a GOTV dogfight with their superior party machinery and squeak Corzine back into power.

"Barack Obama is here today as part of a mechanical calculation," said Bill Schluter, a former Republican senator and independent candidate for governor in 2001 who supports Christie for governor. "His presence here is designed solely to motivate a listless Democratic Party base, and it remains to be seen whether that actually works."

Sharif agrees.

"The Democrats have brought in two party sweethearts in as many days - Obama and former President Bill Clinton - and whether that translates is a big question," he said.

Biden, Clinton, Obama - all the big names this week here stumping for Corzine still lead people back to Daggett.

Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by five points, 47%-42% among likely voters, according to a Fairleigh Dickinson University poll released this morning.  Independent Christopher Daggett, who was not listed as one of the choices, is at 1%.

A July FDU poll had Christie ahead 45%-49%.

Corzine continues to struggle with job approval numbers.  One-third of likely voters (33%) say he has done a poor job, and 40% rate him as only fair.  Just 22% say he has done a good job as governor, and only 3% rate him as excellent.

"This is the expected result of an increasing volume of negative advertising," said Peter Woolley, the poll director.

Corzine has an upside-down 37%-54% favorable rating, while Christie is at 38%-35%.  Since July, Corzine's numbers have essentially remained the same, while Christie's favorables unfavorables have gone up from 34%-25% in July.

"The most important difference between these two candidates right now is in the support each one gets from his own party's voters," said Woolley.  "Among Republicans, Christie is preferred by 85%. Meanwhile, Corzine gets the support of 73% of Democrats. "That is an improvement from his earlier, tepid support, but still lagging," said Woolley.

Asked which candidate is better described as "honest, trustworthy," Corzine and Christie are now essentially tied (31% Corzine, 32% Christie), but Christie, the former U.S. Attorney, had been the clear leader, 33%-24%, in the previous survey.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie's decision to testify in front of a congressional subcommittee next week was the logical choice, according to Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

"It was clear he was going to have to do this at some point in time," he said.

Christie will testify about a type of corporate fraud settlement called deferred prosecution agreements, in which defendants can avoid prosecution by taking on monitors and making other types of restitution.  U.S. Reps. Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch) and Bill Pascrell (D-Paterson) have pending legislation reforming the way the agreements are given out, which is largely inspired by Christie.

GOP gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan says his own campaign polling shows him trailing Christopher Christie by just four percentage points

In a radio interview tonight, gubernatorial candidate Steve Lonegan called a Fairleigh Dickinson Poll that showed him trailing rival Chris Christie by 24 points in the Republican primary "retarded."

The poll was brought up by NJ 101.5 "Jersey Guys" host Casey Bartholomew, who used it to argue his point that Lonegan was unelectable.  When he heard Lonegan use the term "retarded", he checked to make sure he heard correctly.

"I said just that: retarded Fairleigh Dickinson poll," said Lonegan.

Fairleigh Dickinson pollster Peter Woolley, for his part, did not take offense at the comments.

"I have a great deal of respect for Mayor Lonegan, and not least of all because he is an alumnus of Fairleigh Dickinson University," he said.  "I wish him the best of fortune."

But on March 31, one of Lonegan's core supporters, conservative activist and blogger Michael Illions, posted a quick note on Conservatives with Attitude asking readers to be aware of the harm that can come from the derogatory use of the word "retard."

"Most people don't think of this word as hate speech, but that's exactly what it feels like to millions of people with intellectual disabilities, their families and friends," wrote Illions, who became an advocate for the disabled after his own son was diagnosed with hydrocephalus.  "Using ‘retard' as a term of derision is just as cruel and offensive as any other slur."

Lonegan's appearance on the show tonight was notable in light of Friday's tense exchange between Bartholomew and Christie.  Bartholomew told Christie that he could not trust him because he would not remove his friend and advisor, John Inglesino, from the campaign over his $3,000 a year job with state Sen. Joe Pennacchio (R-Montville), which kept Inglesino in the pension system after he lost reelection as a Morris County freeholder.

Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie had to come out and directly address issues relating to the way he awarded federal monitoring contracts, according to three non-partisan political analysts.

The question, however, is whether Christie snuffed out growing media attention that has questioned his command of the issue that is supposed to be his strong suit: ethics.

Christie yesterday opened himself up to any question reporters had about allegations of cronyism and pay-to-play from his opponents and political commentators.  At issue was his appointment of David Kelley, the former U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of New York, to a federal monitoring contract; $23,800 in donations to his campaign from the law firm Stern & Kilcullen, which he had earlier appointed to monitor the University of Medicine and Dentistry of New Jersey; and the one-and-a -half year old story about awarding of a federal monitoring contract with $27 to $52 million to his former boss, former U.S. Attorney General John Ashcroft.

"It wasn't going to go away.  He has to tackle them head-on because he can't be seen to be ignoring them," said Peter Woolley, a pollster and political science professor at Fairleigh Dickinson University.  "And they're still not going to go away, because the campaign tactic book dictates that you always hit somebody in their strength.  So if his strength is integrity, or at least that's what the public's perception of his strength is, then the tactic book says that's where you have to tear him down."

Gov. Jon Corzine continues to struggle for the approval of New Jersey voters. He is upside-down, with 40% approval and 46% disapproval.

Former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie leads Gov. Jon Corzine by nine percentage points, 41%-32%, in a Fairleigh Dickinson University Public Mind poll released this morning.

In a matchup among Republican primary voters, Christie leads former Bogota Mayor Steven Lonegan 43%-15%.  Two other candidates, Franklin Mayor Brian Levine and Assemblyman Rick Merkt (R-Mendham) barely register, at 2% and 1%, respectively.

Corzine’s approval rating is upside-down at 40%-46%.  And the governor has a taken major hit in popularity with public employee households, with only 31% of their members approving of his job performance, while 56% disapprove. 

“When budgets are cut, public employees laid off, and taxes are in danger of being raised, lots of people think twice about their support for the incumbent,” said pollster Peter Woolley.Christie’s name recognition, which the same poll measured at 44% in January, is now 57%.  Lonegan’s statewide name ID is at 33%.

Corzine does come out on top in head-to-head match ups with the other Republican gubernatorial candidates, but not by huge margins, leading Lonegan by four points, 36% to 32%.  He leads Merkt 38% to 28% and Levine 38% to 27%.

Frank Lautenberg is positioned to become the first five-term U.S. Senator in New Jersey history

Democrat Frank Lautenberg has a 52%-32% lead in his bid for a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, and 72% of voters haven't heard of his Republican opponent, former U.S. Rep. Dick Zimmer, according to a poll released this morning by Fairleigh Dickinson University.

“Senator Lautenberg has not had to run hard this year,” said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll. “He’s caught in the updraft of enthusiasm for the Democratic presidential candidate and frustration with the Bush administration.”

Gov. Jon Corzine, struggling to win the approval of N.J. voters, announced his economic stimulus plan today
Political pundits tend to agree that the surge in Democrats on the voter rolls will help New Jersey Democrats this election cycle, from those running for federal office down to freeholder.

But as Gov. Corzine pitches his economic proposals for dealing with the financial crisis today -- which many see as the second early salvo of his reelection campaign – the pundits are less clear on whether the state’s bolstered Democratic majority will provide a big boost to him next year.

Right now, the new registration numbers look good for Democrats.  Statewide, as of the latest report from the Division of Elections dated October 13th there just under 600,000 more Democrats than there were in November, 2007.  Republicans had a much more modest gain, with 176,000 new party members.

Many of those new registrants are merely voters who leaned Democratic anyway but never bothered to vote in a primary before this year.  The number of unaffiliated voters, for instance, dropped by 322,000.

But there have also been 449,000 new registrants since November, and all indications are that the newly enfranchised are trending blue.

The revelation that U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie is investigating former CWA Local 1034 President Carla Katz, reported by the Star-Ledger yesterday, has unavoidable political ramifications.

Christie is, in effect, investigating the ex-girlfriend of the man he will likely face off against if he chooses to challenge Gov. Jon Corzine next year.

You won't hear them go on the record about it, but the idea has some Democratic insiders grumbling.

"It sure as hell doesn't look right, I can say much," said one prominent Democratic official.

A new Quinnipiac poll shows Gov. Jon Corzine with upside-down approval numbers: Getty Images Photo
Democratic State Chairman Joseph Cryan said that the Governor’s 38% approval rating in the Quinnipiac poll released today was “not unexpected.”

Corzine is undertaking some tough but necessary reforms in the state budget, Cryan said.

“The Governor has been dealing with the economic problems in the state. He’s not doling money out. We think that people ultimately are going to respect what we’re doing and it will put us in a positive position next year,” he said.

Nor was Cryan surprised by that the email controversy between Gov. Corzine and union leader Carla Katz, an ex-girlfriend, hasn’t stoked the public fury – despite GOP Chairman Tom Wilson’s push to make the emails public.