Patrick Murray

Incumbent Frank Lautenberg has an eight point lead over Republican Dick Zimmer, 45%-37%, among likely voters in his bid for re-election to a fifth term in the U.S. Senate, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.

“While Lautenberg leads, many voters cannot commit to either candidate. This is usually bad news for the incumbent. However, Republicans are not showing their typical early support for the GOP nominee,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “Couple this with the high number of voters entertaining a third party vote, and it’s clear that Dick Zimmer still has work to do with his own base before he can start courting independent voters.”

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Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 48%-34% margin in New Jersey, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning. Without leaners, Obama leads 42%-28%. Among likely voters, Obama leads 50%-36%, including leaners.

The revelation that U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie is investigating former CWA Local 1034 President Carla Katz, reported by the Star-Ledger yesterday, has unavoidable political ramifications.

Christie is, in effect, investigating the ex-girlfriend of the man he will likely face off against if he chooses to challenge Gov. Jon Corzine next year.

You won't hear them go on the record about it, but the idea has some Democratic insiders grumbling.

"It sure as hell doesn't look right, I can say much," said one prominent Democratic official.

With only $155,000 on hand, Medford Mayor Christopher Myers, is facing the most well-funded open seat challenger in the country: State Sen. John Adler, who has amassed a $1.9 war chest. 

But a potentially huge pool of cash looms on the horizon for Myers.  According to the latest Federal Election Commission filings, Jim Saxton, the retiring 12-term Republican incumbent, has a war chest of a little over $1 million.

Will Saxton help Myers, his protégé and close friend, level the playing field in a district the GOP has held since 1884?

Patrick Murray, the Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, has an interesting post on summer polling in U.S. Senate races that is a must read for campaign watchers.

We’ll have to wait until tomorrow to see the results of the Quinnipiac poll that measures Gov. Corzine’s approval rating and the Senate race between Frank Lautenberg and Dick Zimmer.

But state Senator/Essex County Republican Chairman Kevin O’Toole predicts that the poll on the Senate race will be close.

“Lautenberg has not been loved by the electorate. Look at his number. He has a 54% or 55% (approval) on his best day,” said O’Toole. “I think his best days are behind him.”

Can’t wait until tomorrow night to see who wins the major U.S. Senate and Congressional primary contests?

Below are some predictions from pollsters, political science professors and observers who track Garden State politics.

The observers were unanimous in their predictions for the Democratic Senate primary, foreseeing a relatively easy victory for incumbent Frank Lautenberg. On the Republican end, the outlook was not so clear cut, with observers split between state Sen. Joe Pennacchio and former Rep. Dick Zimmer. Ramapo College Finance Professor Murray Sabrin will have the support of presidential candidate Ron Paul’s fans, and could take some conservative voters away from Pennacchio.

In the heated Republican primary in the 7th congressional district, state Sen. Leonard Lance is the clear favorite. The 3rd district congressional primary, however, is a toss-up. In what has been perhaps the nastiest race of the election cycle, it was tough decide who had the edge between Medford Mayor Chris Myers and Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly.

These races will likely be determined by a very small number of voters. Even the most optimistic of outlooks puts voter turnout at approximately 30%, and most say they expect significantly less than that.

The award for the most ridiculous press release of the year – so far – goes to George Ajjan of the Murray Sabrin for U.S. Senate campaign. Ajjan claims Sabrin is the front runner for the GOP nomination, and points to a PolitickerNJ.com poll where he leads Dick Zimmer by twelve percentage points as evidence of his electoral success so far. This website enjoys our online polls, which are for the amusement of our readers and not at all scientific. Most of the time our readers get things right, but on this one, Sabrin might be better served by looking to Patrick Murray for analysis on this one: in a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released today, Sabrin was at 4% among Republican voters.

A new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll shows Barack Obama is most popular than Hillary Clinton in New Jersey, even though Clinton beat Obama by ten percentage points in the state’s February 5 Democratic primary. Obama has a 58%-27% favorable rating, while Clinton is at 46%-43%. And by a 45%-38% margin, more New Jersey and Democrat-leaning independents say that would rather see Obama capture the Democratic presidential nomination.

As PolitickerNJ.com begins a subjective tournament to choose New Jersey's Smartest Legislator, state Sen. Leonard Lance could be the early front runner. Lance has faced some criticism from members of his own party for being more of a statesman than a politician, but several statehouse watchers and former legislators say he may be one of the brightest people in Trenton.

"Leonard Lance is the one guy who sits in the legislature today that could have sat in the Senate in the late 1960's and early 1970's," said lobbyist/public relations executive Alan Marcus, who served as Clerk of the General Assembly in 1969, at age 21. "Leonard is a throwback to that era of the noblesse oblige, of quiet brilliance -- of people who don't speak on every issue, but who become conversant on every issue."

Lance isn't the only name that comes up in discussions about smart legislators. In the Senate, the most repeated names were Raymond Lesniak, Nia Gill, Kevin O'Toole, Bill Baroni, John Adler, Dick Codey, and Barbara Buono.

In the Assembly, Joe Roberts, Michael Patrick Carroll, Joe Malone, David Russo, and John Wisniewski were frequently mentioned as among the brainiest.