Patrick Murray

Gov. Jon Corzine has an upside-down 40%-49% approval rating and trails Republican Christopher Christie by four percentage points, 39%-35%, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.  Corzine has an upside-down favorable rating of 43%-47%.

Corzine leads another Republican, former Bogota Mayor Steve Lonegan, 37%-33%. 

The poll did not include a Republican primary ballot test.

“For a Democratic incumbent in a blue state like New Jersey, Jon Corzine is certainly not in an enviable position.” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. “However, the Republican primary campaign has recently taken a nasty turn which may have stalled Chris Christie’s momentum and boosted Steve Lonegan’s profile.”

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GOP gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie says he hasn't thought much about U.S.-Cuba relations, but agrees with state Attorney General Anne Milgram that stepping up efforts to extradite convicted cop killer Joanne Chesimard is a good idea.

"If we're moving toward normalizing relations with Cuba, it would be a sign of goodwill for that country to extradite Joanne Chesimard," Christie said yesterday. "There are a lot of issues on the table."

Asked if he believes the United States should normalize relations with Cuba, Christie said, "I haven't thought that deeply about it. It's not a state issue."

U.S. Senator Robert Menendez (D-Hoboken), the state's ranking Cuban American, disagreed.

"It is a state issue," Menendez told PolitickerNJ.com, noting that the Governor appoints members of the Free Cuba Task Force.  "While it may not be the most popular issue of the day, the Governor will have to appoint the head of the advisory council and charge what its mission should be."

Cuban-born U.S. Rep. Albio Sires (D-West New York) had another take on Christie's position.

"There are a lot of issues he hasn't thought deeply about," Sires said.

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After months of virtually ignoring Republican gubernatorial rival Steve Lonegan despite his taunts and negative campaign pieces, former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie this week responded in kind.

In a new one minute radio ad, the Christie camp rips into Lonegan's record as mayor of Bogota, his campaign stances and his history of failed campaigns for various offices.

The advertisement represents a major shift in strategy for Christie, who has so far focused his criticism almost exclusively on Democratic Gov. Jon Corzine, while usually not referring to Lonegan by name in remarks that touch on the Republican primary.

Alternating between a male and female narrator, the spot first says "You're Steve Lonegan, and you have a problem" before charging Lonegan with proposing to raise property taxes while mayor of Bogota.

"Steve Lonegan: The Bergen Record says you proposed raising property taxes in your own town 15%," says the female voice.

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For different reasons, both Democrats and Republicans have had a difficult time recruiting candidates in some key legislative districts this year. 

Some Republicans say they're having the best recruitment year in recent memory, with Governor Corzine's anemic poll numbers giving hope to the long beleaguered minority party.  But the GOP has had a difficult time recruiting candidates in two districts that were expected to be the most competitive in the state. 

Less surprising is the Democrats' failure to field their top choices in District 2 in South Jersey, where they hoped to play offense against two freshman Republican incumbents. 

"I think that economic challenges of getting a message out, as well as the challenges of public services, are unique to any candidate," said Democratic State Chairman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), who's also an assemblyman.  "Certain situations make it more difficult."

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If Governor Corzine's calls for concessions from state workers are a political liability this year for Democratic Assembly members Linda Greenstein (D-Plainsboro) and Wayne DeAngelo (D-Hamilton), then Greenstein thinks former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie's comments about laying off state workers may have made the race much more difficult for whomever the Republicans run.

"It is true that Chris Christie seems to me, in a couple spots, to be taking a very anti-union approach, and I do believe the very people who will be running under him will be in a difficult position," said Greenstein.

Christie made the comments, subsequently reported by the Associated Press, on Friday morning's Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC.

Greenstein and DeAngelo, a freshman, sit in a district that is at the top of Republicans' target list this election cycle -- an area next to Trenton where state workers' unions and private sector organized labor members make up a large and extremely influential portion of the electorate.

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Assembly Majority Leader Bonnie Watson Coleman's marathon of "Second Chance" hearings across the state is widely seen first and foremost as an initiative brought about by a personal struggle: watching her two sons return from 5 1/2 year prison stints for robbing a clothing store at gun point.

But with Watson Coleman's name widely assumed to be on Governor Jon Corzine's shortlist of potential running mates, some insiders see it as an audition as well.

While not doubting her personal connection and passion for the cause, some observers see Watson Coleman (D-Ewing) as building name ID across the state and taking ownership of an issue that appeals to the inner city, minority base whose large turnout Corzine may need to win reelection.

"In a state where there are not many well-known candidates for any statewide office at this point beyond Gov. Corzine and Chris Christie, she would certainly be an attractive candidate who can go out there and get her name better known," said Quinnipiac University pollster Clay Richards.  "It's logical that she do this kind of thing, and she has a message.  Unlike officials who represent a single geographic area, it goes beyond her constituency and it's attractive." Read More >

With limited opportunities to pick up State Assembly seats in November, Republicans are expected to pour extensive resources into the state's southernmost tip - a traditionally Republican area currently represented by three Democrats.

"You look at the map, and District 1 is definitely their number one priority," said Monmouth University pollster and political science professor Patrick Murray.  "It's going to be tough. Cape May is a huge Republican County.  It's going to be a year where we're not going to have a high turnout.  You're going to get the voters who vote every year, and they're going to be Republicans down there."

The first district is made up of Cape May County, a large part of Cumberland County and a small part of southern Atlantic County.

Republicans see the district's total Democratic control as a fluke brought about by state Sen. Jeff Van Drew (D-Dennis), the most conservative Democrat in the Senate whose coattails in 2007 are credited with helping his two assembly running mates, Nelson Albano (D-Vineland) and Matt Milam (D-Vineland) across the finish line.

This time, Van Drew isn't on the ballot.  Instead, Albano, who's in his second term, and Milam, a freshman - both from Cumberland County -- are below an unpopular Democratic governor and are likely to face at least one Republican candidate who comes from Cape May County - a Republican stronghold that dominates the district.

Dennis Township Attorney Michael Donohue, who came up about 2,000 votes short of Milam in 2007, plans to run again, and will likely have the support of Republican leaders.

Upper Township Committeeman Frank Conrad, who owns three small businesses in the district, has submitted a letter of intent to run, but he's been pretty quiet about it Read More >

Gov. Jon Corzine’s State of the State address will be broadcast live on New Jersey Network at 1PM today.  The speech will air simultaneously on NJN Public Radio and be web streamed and archived at njn.net. The State of the State speech will be rebroadcast tonight at 10PM.  Republican Roger Bodman, Democrat Julie Roginsky, and Monmouth University Gannett NJ poll director Patrick Murray will provide analysis.

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Democrats think today's Quinnipiac gubernatorial poll indicates that Gov. Jon Corzine is well on his way to being understood and embraced by the electorate after making several unpopular and tough, but necessary decisions.

Republicans see the poll as demonstrating lackluster support for the Corzine, considering he's spent a combined $100 million on his two previous statewide races, and early enthusiasm for U.S. Attorney Chris Christie's potential candidacy among those who have heard of him.

Meanwhile, non-partisan political analysts see the poll as a wash, with promising and troubling results for both Corzine and U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, who is viewed as a likely gubernatorial candidate.

Corzine leads Christie in the poll, 42% to 36%, although only 37% of voters think Corzine deserves to be reelected and his approval rating remains net negative. Christie remains a relative unknown, with only 30% of respondents knowing enough about him to form an opinion.

Assemblyman Joseph Cryan (D-Union), the Democratic State Chairman, said that's the number that caught his attention. Despite dozens of positive front page headlines about his indictments and convictions of prominent public officials since he was sworn in, 70% of voters still barely know anything about him.

On top of that, although Corzine still has a net negative approval rating, he's improved significantly since the last Quinnipiac poll in September.

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Rob Andrews will return for his eleventh term in Congress next year, and after losing two statewide races, it's unclear whether the last will be the final one.

Andrews ran a close second in the 1997 Democratic gubernatorial primary against James E. McGreevey, was passed over to succeed Gov. Corzine in the Senate, and mounted a primary challenge against incumbent U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg this year, only to lose by 25 percentage points. But despite those three dispiriting defeats, he still won't rule out the possibility of another statewide run some day, and prefers not to speculate on whether the last one hurt his prospects.

"That's really not for me to decide. That's for voters to decide and leaders of the party," said Andrews (D-Haddon Heights) in a phone interview yesterday.

Political insiders acknowledge that there are a thousand lives in politics, but see Andrews's defeat as being particularly hard to crawl back from - and not just because of the lopsided margin.

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