Patrick Murray

Christopher Christie has a three point lead in the race for Governor, leading Jon Corzine by a 43%-40% margin among likely voters with 8% for independent Christopher Daggett, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll released this morning.

A Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday has Christie ahead by four points, 43%-39%, with 13% for Daggett.  A Monmouth poll last month had Christie up by eight points.

"New Jersey election followers should not be entirely surprised by this dynamic.  Democratic voters in New Jersey start paying attention later in the fall, causing the Republican candidate to lose ground," said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. "The question now is whether Chris Christie can stave off any more erosion of the poll lead he has held consistently since February,"

Corzine has an upside-down job approval rating of 37%-51%, about the same as last month.

Christie's favorables have dropped from 48%-30% to 41%-39%.  But Corzine continues to have upside-down favorables and is now at 40%-49%.

Murray says that politically independent women are a key factor in the narrowing of the gubernatorial race, with Corzine leading by a "statistically insignificant" 38%-37%.  Christie had a 28% lead among independent women in Monmouth's August poll.

"The great mammogram debate of 2009 seems to be winning converts among independent women.  While these voters had been giving their soft support to Christie based on discontent with the Corzine economic record, they appear to have beaten a hasty retreat when threats to their health care access were raised," said Murray.

As the campaign for governor intensifies, both Governor Corzine and Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie have begun throwing some not-so-subtle personal jabs.

The latest example is a television ad Governor Corzine released yesterday.  More than a few observers and bloggers noticed the double entendre – whether intentional or not --when the voiceover says that Christie “threw his weight around” as U.S. Attorney to avoid traffic tickets and points on his license.  

Corzine spokesman Sean Darcy indicated today that the campaign did not intend for the comment to be taken literally.   But state Sen. Bill Baroni, who grew up overweight and lost 130 pounds 15 years ago, said that he “immediately” recognized a reference to Christie’s girth in the Corzine ad.

“Tens of thousands of New Jerseyans like me battle weight,” he said.   “To make reference to that in such a blatant way to distract from a discussion about the issues? We’re better than that.”

Corzine also got personal by launching a web ad accusing Christie of doing a favor for a fellow former U.S. Attorney who declined to prosecute his brother.  

But it has cut both ways.  Throughout the campaign, Christie has focused on portraying Corzine – who grew up in rural Illinois and moved to New Jersey in 1975 -- as not just out-of-touch, but out-of-town.  His campaign released a Web ad replaying a Corzine statement about the “Garden State Expressway”, which does not exist. 

It wasn’t the most exciting week in New Jersey gubernatorial politics.  The unemployment rate went up again.  Governor Corzine touted a decrease in uninsured New Jerseyans.  A Monmouth University poll showed Chris Christie ahead of Corzine, but his leadshrank from the previous month.  Corzine agreed to do a debate on a jazz format public radio station, but avoided 101.5fm and the League of Women Voters/ABC televised debates.  Jeb Bush turned up unexpectedly at a Christie fundraiser (although they had a name tag ready for him).   And Chris Daggett said he’ll sue over ballot position. 

Still, this close to the election, everything counts. So who won the week? 

Governor Corzine caved and agreed to participate in an October 1 debate.  Two new polls showed Chris Christie maintaining a lead in the gubernatorial race despite three weeks of very bad news.  Assembly Speaker Joseph Roberts announced that he will retire at the end of his term, leading to speculation about who’s going to replace him and intrigue in the state Senate.  Another story about Christie’s driving record came out.

So who came out of the week looking the best, or maybe the least scathed?

 
Brigid Harrison, political science professor at Montclair State University
Winner: Christie

“Chris Christie won the week. He remains ahead in two polls, up by 10 points in the Quinnipiac, up by five in the FDU poll (though this is less than optimal for Christie because Independent Chris Daggett was not included in the FDU poll). What we learned from this week is that the various Christie missteps (Karl Rove, Michelle Brown, and the traffic incidents) were not, in and of themselves, significant enough to cause a serious shift in voters' opinions of Christie. But to remain ahead, Christie will need to get out in front of these issues before the Democrats package them together and spin them in a way that they do start to matter to voters.”

Joe Marbach, professor of political science at Seton Hall and Dean of the College of Arts and Sciences
Winners: Christie and independent Christopher Daggett

“Overall, I think Christie won the week, largely on the strength of the three polls that came out – the Rasmussen, Quinnipiac and FDU that indicate his lead is holding anywhere from 5-11%.”
    
“I think also that Christie and Daggett won in terms of the Governor participating in the debate…. Daggett gets to participate in the debates, which puts him on the same platform as Christie and Corzine.”

Change in front office communications director “isn’t directly related to the campaign, but whenever you have an incumbent making changes in their communications staff certainly has an impact on the campaign.”

Patrick Murray, Director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute
Result: draw

“Christie got a couple of polls that indicated there hasn’t been much of a dent in his lead at all, even after the news that came out in the prior weeks.  But still there was a slight increase in his negative ratings, which is probably not as big as the Corzine camp would have liked to have seen.”

“On the Corzine camp, they didn’t get their way with the debate schedule, while nobody was willing to call their bluff, the strategic position was that since ELEC looked like they were willing to drag that debate out, it looked like it was going to be a negative process story…  They promptly nipped it in the bud.”

Roberts retirement “could actually help Corzine.”  Since labor leader/Camden County Democratic Co-Chairman Donald Norcross will probably succeed Roberts on the ballot, power broker George Norcross “would like to see probably a bigger than average margin of victory for his brother, which could mean a bigger margin of victory down there in Camden county which could help Jon Corzine.” 

GOP gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie in between state Sen. Kevin O'Toole (R-Cedar Grove), left, and state Sen. Brian P. Stack (D-Union City).

News about GOP gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie's failure to disclose a loan to a former employee and report the income on his federal income tax and fallout from his pre-campaign discussions with Karl Rove have Democrats alert to shifting terrain in the gubernatorial election even if they remain guarded about the outcome.

Ahead by double digits through the bulk of the summer, Republicans say the headlines are inevitable campaign turbulence, and not even close to death spiral spasms.

"We'll continue to work contrasts between Jon Corzine and Chris Christie," said Democratic State Chairman Joseph Cryan, who wouldn't identify this week as the first time in the cycle that Gov. Jon Corzine has appeared to have climbed off the political cold slab, a condition some polls have shown the governor to be in since he and Christie officially started their head-to-head rivalry back in June.

State Sen. Barbara Buono (D-Metuchen) today stepped up the optimism.

"At this point it's a horse race, but I'm feeling very confident the governor will be successful," said the chair of the Senate Budget Committee and a prospective candidate for lieutenant governor until Corzine picked her colleague, state Sen. Loretta Weinberg (D-Teaneck).

Buono toured Indian-American businesses with Corzine today on Oak Tree Road in Edison in her first campaign appearance with the governor since failing to lock up the LG spot.

Since the gubernatorial primary ended and the general election began, incumbent Jon Corzine has outspent Republican nominee Chris Christie by a 10-1 margin on television ads.

Corzine has spent over $5.4 million on cable and network television in the New York and Philadelphia media markets since June with mostly negative ads, while Christie has spent a little over $540,000 solely in the Philadelphia market during the same period.    

The figures, however, do not count spending by third party groups.  The Republican Governors Association (RGA) has spent about $3 million in New Jersey -- most of it since the June 2 primary.  The Democratic Governors Association, which helped fund the Mid-Atlantic Leadership Fund’s attack ads against Christie before the primary, has not run any ads to help Corzine (or any other candidates) since then. 
    
Radio ad buys are harder to track, and right now it’s impossible to tell exactly how much each campaign has spent on the internet.  But with the next campaign finance reports not coming out until October, television ad buys are one way to keep tabs on campaign spending.

Christie campaign strategist Mike DuHaime noted that his candidate has maintained his high single-digit or low double-digit lead in the polls all summer long despite the disparity.

“How much does he have to spend to make a dent in this lead?” DuHaime said.  “Millions and millions in negative ads seem to have not worked. They keep trying one after the next and the lead hasn’t changed much over the summer.”

One of the most notable results of the Monmouth University/Gannett poll on the gubernatorial race released this morning is the large discrepancy between likely voters and registered voters.

“It’s an indication that this is really volatile, and what I think happened with the corruption arrests… while it didn’t directly impact the race, it did impact likely voter models,” said Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

Republican gubernatorial Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine by 14 points among likely voters, but only by four with registered voters.  

Murray said that the current likely voter model is based on a combination of factors.  But the election is still a political eternity away, and the polling institute can not predict who will turn out in November.  

“You really do have to look at both numbers. The likely voter model indicates the dynamic at this time – a dynamic that can change, but we’re not sure if it will or not,” he said.

Republican gubernatorial nominee Chris Christie leads Governor Jon Corzine by 14 points among likely voters but only four points among registered voters, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett poll released this morning.

Among likely voters, Christie leads Corzine 50% to 36%, with independent Christopher Daggett clocking in at 4%.  That’s up significantly from last month, when Christie held an eight point lead over Corzine.

Among registered voters, Christie leads Corzine 43% to 39% -- similar to the registered voter numbers from Monmouth’s poll last month.  Daggett again pulls 4%. 

“As an election heats up most polls focus only on likely voters with the aim of predicting the eventual outcome. However, we are still in the early days of this race and the role of a public poll should be to increase our understanding of electoral dynamics, including which registered voters may or may not show up on election day,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.  “In this case, we find that Corzine has made some gains with black and Hispanic voters, while Christie has increased his vote share among union workers.  But the bottom line is that Christie’s supporters are more engaged, which is why the Republican’s lead among likely voters has grown.”

Corzine’s favorability rating remains basically unchanged at 39% favorable to 46% unfavorable, but Christie’s have changed significantly.  Christie is seen favorably be 42%, 30% view him unfavorable -- a six point increase since last month and an 18 point increase since January.  That indicates that Corzine’s onslaught of negative ads against Christie have worked.

Governor Jon Corzine gets an average grade of C- from New Jersey residents, most of whom think that the incumbent has no major accomplishments to point to from his three years in office, according to a Monmouth University/Gannett poll released today.

The Governor’s approval rating is upside down, with 37% of likely voters approving and 49% disapproving.  The rating is net positive only among Democrats, 53% of whom approve and 30% of whom disapprove, while it’s upside down for both independents (57% disapprove) and Republicans (74% disapprove).

That’s better than the state legislature, however.  Thirty percent of respondents approve of the job they’re doing, while 47% disapprove.

Only 13% of respondents said that Corzine had major accomplishments to point to.  Fourty-nine percent said he had some minor accomplishments, while 34% said he had “no real accomplishments.”  That number could complicate Corzine’s reelection effort, according to Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

“It’s pretty difficult to expect voters to return you to office when all they’ve seen are improvements around the edges. But this is exactly the position Corzine finds himself in,” he said.

Chris Christie’s selection of Kim Guadagno for lieutenant governor does not appear to be a geographical choice, according to Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray.

“This is one of those do-no-harm choices,” said Murray.  

The traditionally Republican Monmouth County has become increasingly competitive in recent elections, but Christie was widely assumed to have it easily in his column come November – especially in light the fact that Republican presidential candidate John McCain carried it over Barack Obama last year.

“She doesn’t come to the table bringing votes with her. It might pump up his margin in Monmouth County a little, but that’s not what he needs to make sure he wins this election,” said Murray.