Patrick Murray

A Monmouth University/Gannett poll released this afternoon shows Gov. Jon Corzine with a two point lead over Republican Chris Christie – 43% to 41% -- which is within the poll’s margin of error.  Independent Christopher Daggett polls at 8%.

That’s a statistically insignificant change from a Monmouth poll release Sunday that showed Christie leading Corzine by 43% to 42%.

With Election Day looming, the race remains too close to call.  

“This race is still as close as it can be.  It’s possible that President Obama’s visit boosted the governor’s chances.  But it is also likely that some anti-Corzine voters are still unsure of casting their lot with Christie,” said Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray..  If the undecided vote breaks largely for the Republican, this race could be a squeaker.’

Corzine’s approval rating is mired in the same upside-down territory it has been in through most of the campaign, with 36% of respondents approving of his job performance and 54% disapproving.  But his personal favorability rating has improved, with 40% of voters seeing him favorably compared to 44% who view him unfavorable – narrowed from a 10 point upside-down gap in Monmouth’s poll from last week.

Most polls showed the gubernatorial race as a dead heat, but Quinnipiac (the big one)  showed Gov. Jon Corzine leading Chris Christie by 5%.  According to the New York Times, Corzine stood by the dead asset monetization plan he proposed two years ago, giving Republicans perfect political ammunition (Corzine argued that the paper got it wrong).  Corzine brought in Bill Clinton again.  Eleven day pre-election reports show Corzine outspending Christie three to one.  Independent Chris Daggett had to deal with the conspiracy theory that he is in the race to intentionally spoil it for Christie.  A focus group found that voters like Daggett, but don’t want to vote for someone they think will lose.  And the Phillies beat the Yankees in the first game of the World Series.

So who won the final full week before the election?  Four out of our five panelists said there was no clear victor, while one awarded the win to Corzine.

Jon Corzine is the irresponsible son who spends too much money.  Chris Christie is the brother in law who talks too much.  And Chris Daggett is someone a cousin just started dating.

Those were some of the more amusing responses Monmouth University Polling Institute Director Patrick Murray got when he asked a panel of undecided voters which of their relatives the three major gubernatorial candidates reminded them of.

The rest of the discussion, however, was not so light.  Even the talk about relatives turned to cynicism, when most of the participants said they would not want to have either Corzine or Christie as a relative (Daggett, however, was considered more of a nice guy and, according to one panelist, "approachable."). 

"I can't even imagine the other two in my family," said Bordentown resident David Marciniak. 

The discussion took place at a focus group facility in an Edison office building.  The ten panelists, all white and ranging in age from 30-something to 70-something, were drawn from participants in Monmouth telephone polls (Murray said that two panelists who did not show up were from minority groups).  There were six men and four women.  Four identified themselves as independents, three as Republicans, two as Democrats and one "other."

Most of the panelists did not like Corzine, but felt frustrated by the Christie campaign's lack of specifics. They were much warmer to Daggett, though some were hesitant to vote for him because they did not think he could win.

Pollster Patrick Murray says that the turnout model on a Suffolk University poll released this morning is based on a 93% turnout in a race where less than half of the state's registered voters will turn out.  The poll, which included all twelve candidates for governor, has Gov. Jon Corzine leading Republican Christopher Christie 42%-33% among likely voters, with 7% for independent Christopher Daggett.

The full text of Murray's statement:

Democrats are willing to give campaign workers a few hours off on Sunday so they can attend one of two campaign rallies featuring President Obama, even though it means taking bodies away from phone banks and door knocking two days before Election Day in a race that most pollsters say is too close to call.

Obama will speak at rallies for Gov. Jon Corzine's re-election campaign at the Susquehanna Bank Center in Camden and the Prudential Center in Newark.

Whatever Democrats may lose for a few hours in the way of mechanical operations will more than be made up for in getting energized by close proximity to the President, say some Corzine supporters.

"You can't help but getting excited," said Michele Jaker, executive director of the Planned Parenthood of New Jersey Action Committee. "I'm a hardened vet, yet there I was yelling screaming at the last Obama rally. If I get excited, our college students and volunteers will certainly get excited. They will be that much more energized for Monday and Tuesday. I know twenty people off the top of my head that are planning to go."

Charlie Wowkanech, president of the New Jersey AFL-CIO, said his organization is so big and so operationally sound, that Obama's presence here won't change the GOTV flow for Corzine.

"Obviously our labor campaign is in full force final week, and will continue to be through Election Day," Wowkanech said. "We're working every day and every night this week, and we will have people there to see President Obama, as well as ample volunteers on Saturday and Sunday. We have a million members in the labor movement here. The Prudential Center only holds 17,000 people. We'll have people inside, and plenty more in the streets."

With Corzine at 64% approval among Democrats and Obama at 87%, according to a recent Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey poll, the upside in Obama inspiration is enough incentive for team Corzine to bring the president in for the second time in as many weeks as part of an effort to lift the Democratic incumbent past GOP challenger Christopher Christie and independent Christopher Daggett.

"Corzine has enough money to get bodies in the streets," said Patrick Murray, director of polling at Monmouth University. "Even if some of those people who might otherwise be phone-banking or campaigning (are in the Prudential Center or in the Susquehanna Center for a few hours on Sunday), at the end of the day, the Obama presence is going to inspire those people knocking on doors and making phone calls and energize the core of support that's critical for GOTV on Monday and Tuesday. If they can't get excited about Jon Corzine, Democrats will get excited about Barack Obama."

The gubernatorial race is tied, according to a new Monmouth University/Gannett poll.

The poll shows Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie each getting 39%, while independent Christopher Daggett gets 14%.

A Monmouth poll from the beginning of this month showed Christie ahead of Corzine by three points - 43% to 40% -- with Daggett taking 8% of the vote.

Today's poll found that once reluctant Democrats are sticking with Corzine, but there may be some base trouble for Christie with the Republican base.  Christie had 86% of Republicans' support in the poll released early in the month and has 81% of the base in todays.  Corzine, who in July had 71% of Democrats' support, now has 76%.

Chris Daggett won the endorsement of the Star-Ledger, and later complained about the Republican Governors Association's ads against him.  It was revealed that Chris Christie went over the Justice Department’s hotel budget when he was U.S. Attorney.  An email surfaced asking Governor Corzine’s cabinet to “get creative” in showing how Corzine’s economic policies are working – even if it’s a “stretch.”  Polls continue to show a deadlocked race between Corzine and Christie.

So who won the week?  Our panel of experts was divided.

Bill Maer

After lobbyist Bill Maer took a high ranking role in Gov. Jon Corzine's re-election effort, a client of his lobbying firm asked him to recommend pollsters for a survey.

That client was Harrah's, represented by Joseph Tyrrell, a veteran political operative and currently the company's Regional Vice President for Public Affairs.  Tyrell requested the recommendations on behalf of the Casino Association of New Jersey, which Harrah's and the other big name Atlantic City casinos belong to. 

Maer recommended three pollsters, including the one that the trade group ultimately selected: Anzalone Liszt Research, a firm that has polled for New Jersey Democratic candidates.

When he signed on to Corzine's campaign, Maer - who works at Public Strategies Impact, the state's second biggest lobbying firm --  signed a contract that he would not lobby any government officials.  He can still play the other side of the field, however, and share his intimate knowledge of the political world with clients. 

Among those clients is Harrah's - a company that has already been dragged into the gubernatorial race by GOP gubernatorial candidate Christopher Christie, who accused Corzine of owning a stake in a hedge fund related to a company that has a stake in Harrah's (Corzine maintains the companies, TPG and TPG-Axon, are completely separate). 

Maer declined to comment for this story, but did provide a copy of a portion of his contract.  It bars him from lobbying activity on behalf of his company, but allows him to "communicate with clients of his firm for a purpose other than lobbying." 

Tyrell, for his part, would not say what exactly the trade group polled about or whether Maer would be able to see the results.

"It's an internal poll for the industry," he said.  "The association is part of other casinos in New Jersey in Atlantic City, and they want to go out and do a poll about casino issues.  The lobbyists that they all work with make recommendations."

After trailing in the polls since February, Jon Corzine finally saw one where he led Chris Christie – even if only by a statistically insignificant one point.  Several other polls also showed the race in a dead heat, or Christie only slightly ahead.  Corzine outlined how he plans to slash the deficit in the next four years, although Christie jumped on him for planning it partly by extending a tax on the wealthy.  And lieutenant governor candidates Loretta Weinberg, Kim Guadagno and Frank Esposito engaged in a contentious debate.

So who won the week?  Two of our experts said Corzine, one picked Guadagno, and one chose nobody. 

Two non-partisan polls came out showing Jon Corzine closing the gap with Chris Christie.  Independent gubernatorial candidate Christopher Daggett laid out a detailed plan to cut property taxes.  South Jersey was victorious in the senate leadership contest, toppling the most popular political figure in the state from the senate presidency, but with no apparent effect (so far) on the gubernatorial race.  It looks like Assemblywoman Sheila Oliver (D-East Orange) will by the new speaker.  And Christie, Corzine and Daggett had their first debate.  

So who won the week?  Daggett, according to all but one academic PolitickerNJ.com asked.